See More on Facebook

Analysis, Politics

What are the likely and unlikely scenarios after Thailand’s election?

We look at several likely and unlikely scenarios that could take place after today’s election.


Written by

Updated: March 24, 2019

Thailand goes to vote for the first time since the military took power in May of 2014. Despite clear attempts to influence the election by the military, voters are turning out in huge numbers to make their voices heard. We look at several likely scenarios that could emerge after today.

 

Peu Thai and Allies win +376 seats
There is a small but possible chance that the Thaksin-aligned Peu Thai party will be able to nominate its choice of prime minister and form a government if they pull off a landslide victory and gain over 376 seats in the lower house. But getting 376 seats in the 500 seats is next to impossible and the new voting system makes it even more unlikely.

What would happen then?

Several possible outcomes are possible in this scenario. The first is that the junta backs off and finally fulfills one promise and lets the government govern. A more likely scenario is that the constitution court disbands Future Forward for breaking electoral laws and maybe even the Peu Thai party itself.

 

Peu Thai and Allies win 250 seats but not enough to nominate PM
The more likely scenario is that PT and Allies do win the majority in the lower house (250+ seats) but do not get enough to form a government. In this case there is an impasse and a lot of shady politicking may be done.

What would happen then?

There is a chance, like when the Democrat government was formed in the late noughties, where a Thaksin-backed party gains the parliamentary majority but is unable to gain enough seats to nominate the premier. In that case we may have a Prayuth as a prime minister but with a Peu Thai majority in parliament leading to a very weird, very Thai style democracy.

There is also a chance that neither side have the necessary votes to nominate a prime minister, in that case we’re likely going to see the junta not allow parliament to be open and govern until a second election.

What is most unlikely to happen is that Peu Thai somehow manage to reach across the aisle and form a grand coalition with the democrat party.

 

Prayuth becomes prime minister after military-backed parties gain enough seats

This is not a far-fetched outcome. All the junta needs is 126 seats in the lower house to nominate its choice of Prime Minister. While the Democrats promised not to join with any military proxy the party leadership said it does not speak for all democrats and we may see some defections to a military coalition.

What would happen then?

There are several scenarios here. The military may be able to nominate and confirm Prayuth but its highly unlikely that they would be able to govern effectively with a minority government. We may see another election called as soon as next year if that’s the case.

Of course, we may also see protests by people unhappy with the rigging of the election by the people. In this scenario we will have to see how many people actually take to the streets. If a critical mass is reached there have been talks of another coup carried out by a different faction of the military to restore order and overthrow the current junta.

 

A hung parliament with no meaningful alliance or Mass disqualification
If the democrats carry through their promise to not align with the military or Peu Thai, if the progressive Future Forward Party also keeps their promise to not align, we may have a hung parliament where no side has the majority or no prime minister is nominated. This is not the most likely of scenarios but a possibility.

Alternatively, the constitutional court may choose to disband Future Forward after the election, or the Electoral Commission may choose to red card enough MPs so that the minimum quorum of parliament may not be reached, and parliament cannot be opened.

What would happen then?

In this case, the military will likely continue to rule in the interim. With the coronation happening in May, a second election will be unlikely, and we may see the NCPO rule until the end of the year.



Enjoyed this story? Share it.


Cod Satrusayang
About the Author: Cod Satrusayang is the Managing Editor at Asia News Network.

Eastern Briefings

All you need to know about Asia


Our Eastern Briefings Newsletter presents curated stories from 22 Asian newspapers from South, Southeast and Northeast Asia.

Sign up and stay updated with the latest news.



By providing us with your email address, you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.

View Today's Newsletter Here

Analysis, Politics

Border clash with India leaves 7 dead in Pakistan

Kashmir is becoming an untenable boiling point. At least six civilians and a Pakistani soldier were killed as Indian troops resorted to “indiscriminate and ruthless” shelling from across the Line of Control (LoC) in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), officials said on Sunday. Officials said that nine other civilians were injured, adding that this was the highest death toll in 2019 in a single day of Indian shelling from across the dividing line. Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) notified through a tweet that one soldier had been martyred in the exchange of fire while two others were injured. ISPR added that in response to unprovoked ceasefire violations by India in Jura, Shahkot and Nauseri sectors, nine Indian soldiers were killed while several ot


By Dawn
October 21, 2019

Analysis, Politics

Survey finds two-thirds oppose military spending

Military expenditure has become a hot button issue in Thailand. Nearly two-thirds of citizens want the government to spend more on health and social security, according to a recent Super Poll survey. Assistant Professor Noppadon Kannika, director of the Super Poll Research Centre, said 1,069 people were quizzed about the budget for fiscal 2020 currently before the House. He said 65.9 per cent felt a greater share of the budget should be allocated to health, while 64.9 per cent believe more should go to education, 59.8 per cent to job provision and another 59.8 per cent to security in the quality of life. Less support was expressed for spending on national security (54.8 per cent), transportation and road repairs (50.8 per cent) and small-medium business promotion (48.2 per cent). Asked about their political leanings, 67.2 per cent of respondents said they were “in


By The Nation (Thailand)
October 21, 2019

Analysis, Politics

Hong Kong march spirals into chaos, again

Violence begets violence as more protests hits Hong Kong on the weekend. An illegal protest rally through Hong Kong’s Tsim Sha Tsui spiraled into chaos on Sunday, as protesters began to engage in acts of vandalism and arson even as the police warned of a response. Signs of trouble began to emerge towards the end of the march near the West Kowloon terminus in a now familiar pattern. Protesters were seen spraying over the MTR logo with black paint, building barricades and digging up bricks from the ground. At Tsim Sha Tsui Police Station, demonstrators tossed multiple rounds of Molotov cocktails at the station and police responded with multiple volleys of tear gas from the upper floors of the building while warning protesters over a loudspeaker to stop. Two hoses were constantly spraying water to douse the flames. A similar scene played out at the Mong Kok police station, prompting officers insid


By Asia News Network
October 21, 2019

Analysis, Politics

President Joko Widodo sworn in for second term

Joko exhorts Indonesians to develop ‘new ways and values’. A few hours before he was sworn in for a second and final term in office on Sunday (Oct 20), Indonesian President Joko Widodo uploaded a new profile picture on Facebook with the caption “Let’s work together towards progress for Indonesia”. The post has since garnered more than 224,000 likes and over 19,000 comments from well-wishers congratulating him on his re-election and cheering him on to steer the country to success. At around 4pm Jakarta time (5pm Singapore time), millions of Indonesians tuned in to a live television broadcast as Mr Joko, more popularly known as Jokowi, recited his oath of office before lawmakers and regional senators that make up the People’s Consultative Assembly, or MPR, at the Parliament building. The new Vice-President, cleric Ma’ruf Amin, who replaced outgoing Mr Jusuf Kalla, also took h


By The Straits Times
October 21, 2019

Analysis, Politics

‘History will take note of those who ridiculed removal of Article 370’: PM Modi in Maharashtra

PM Modi also expressed confidence that the BJP will break all victory records in the October 21 Maharashtra Assembly elections. Prime Minister on Thursday once again lashed out at the opposition saying that history will take note of those who mocked the abrogation of Article 370, that gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir. “Whenever Article 370 will be discussed in history, — the decision that was taken in the interest of the country — the people who opposed and ridiculed will be remembered,” PM Modi said while addressing a poll rally in Maharashtra’s Parli. He said the next week’s state Assembly elections were a battle between BJP’s “karyashakti” (power of development) and opposition’s “swarth shakti” (selfishness). Further targeting the Congress and NCP leaders, he wondered if “frustrated and dejected” people could do anything good for people. “A Congress


By The Statesman
October 18, 2019

Analysis, Politics

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam unveils measures to ease housing crunch

Lam was forced to deliver speech via video after protests. Embattled Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announced measures aimed at easing a housing shortage on Wednesday (Oct 16) as she battles to restore confidence in her administration and address widespread discontent after four months of mostly violent anti-government protests. Mrs Lam was forced to deliver her speech via video after her annual policy address in the Legislative Council was aborted when some lawmakers repeatedly jeered and shouted at her as she began speaking. After aborting her speech in the chamber tw


By The Straits Times
October 17, 2019