See More on Facebook

Analysis

Which way are Sino-US ties headed?

The US has listed China as a strategic competitor and the Sino-US economic/trade conflict is a clear manifestation of this categorization.


Written by

Updated: October 9, 2019

Bidding farewell to 40 years of friendship, some in the United States want to replace cooperation with competition as the tone of Sino-US ties in future.

At present, with right-wing conservatism and nationalism peaking, the US has listed China as a strategic competitor, and the recent Sino-US economic and trade conflict is a clear manifestation of this accusation.

The US has adopted a flurry of radical and inappropriate policies and measures to counter China, exposing Washington’s short-term overanxiety. Whenever the US calms down, Beijing and Washington will return to seeking rational major power relations, but it will take time.

The US should not hold the unrealistic expectation that trade negotiations can resolve all major issues and concerns between the two countries. The current trade negotiations are the first ones opened under the threat of tariffs. The difficulty is unprecedented.

It is even more difficult to resolve anything in months if the negotiations cover issues like tariff and non-tariff barriers, investment and market access, agriculture and the service industry, intellectual property protection, technology transfer, exchange rates and enforcement mechanisms.

The US should not set an unrealistic negotiation schedule, which reflects its anxiousness and greed for success. It should recognize that it is impossible to find a complete solution to structural problems in the short term. It is also unrealistic to expect trade negotiations to resolve all major issues and concerns between the two countries.

The Sino-US economic and trade negotiations could head in one of three directions.

The first is the resumption of negotiations and conclusion of an agreement in the coming months, something the market expects. China and the US are complementary in terms of economy and trade. In fact, economic sectors of both countries as well as the global market expect a trade agreement acceptable to both sides to emerge in the near future.

However, this scenario will emerge only if the two countries truly respect each other and hold realistic targets. It is particularly crucial for the two sides to arrive at an agreement on the elimination of punitive tariffs and on implementation mechanisms.

In the second scenario, negotiations could lead to a stalemate. The negotiations could continue till next year. China and the US might require a long time to arrive at an agreement.

During this period, the US will maintain tariffs on US$250 billion worth of Chinese goods, and China will continue to implement countermeasures. The US is likely to impose tariffs on another US$300 billion worth of Chinese goods and crackdown on Chinese technology companies to maximize pressure.

The Chinese side will continue to maintain rational restraint, but the economies of both China and the US will suffer continuous damage, and the global economy will continue to face uncertainty.

In the third scenario, it might be difficult for China and the US to arrive at an economic and trade agreement approved by both sides. The US will continue to implement a hawkish policy and impose punitive tariffs on all Chinese goods. China will be forced to adopt comprehensive countermeasures.

In such a scenario, the Sino-US economic and trade conflict will not only undermine the economic growth of China and the US, but will also bring horrific damage to the global economy.

China must work hard toward the best situation, but at the same time it must prepare for the worst. In the past year, China responded rationally to unilateral actions by the US, taking countermeasures on the same scale. But it also actively sought dialogue, consultation and negotiation. The Chinese side also conveyed to the US that if it wants to fight, China will accompany it to the end.

China has the confidence to fight the US because it boasts an enormous manufacturing capacity and a large global market share and holds the interests of US companies in China as a bargaining chip.

Sino-US competition in the high-tech industry is normal market competition. But the US is trying in vain to combat the development of China’s high-tech industry by imposing higher tariffs.

On the one hand, China’s high-tech products are exported not only to the US market but also to the global market.

On the other hand, China’s high-tech industry development has its own unique development track and characteristics, and is supported by China’s comprehensive industrial system. In recent years, with the expansion of R&D investment from the government and enterprises, China’s overall innovation and R&D capabilities have been continuously enhanced.

The US trying to slow down the development of China’s high-tech industry with tariff policies can only stimulate China’s indigenous innovation capability and increase its efforts to expand the global market.

Economic globalization means that the global trade order and economic order are of paramount importance. China currently advocates maintaining the existing order and promoting World Trade Organization reform.

China, together with its global value chain partners, will jointly safeguard the multilateral trading system.



Enjoyed this story? Share it.


China Daily
About the Author: China Daily covers domestic and world news through nine print editions and digital media worldwide.

Eastern Briefings

All you need to know about Asia


Our Eastern Briefings Newsletter presents curated stories from 22 Asian newspapers from South, Southeast and Northeast Asia.

Sign up and stay updated with the latest news.



By providing us with your email address, you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.

View Today's Newsletter Here

Analysis

North Korea beefs up self-defense capabilities in military reorganization

The North have been making many changes ahead of talks. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presided over a meeting of the top military decision-making body to accelerate the development of self-defense capabilities ahead of key events that will decide its national strategy, its state media reported Sunday. Discussions on ways to bolster its military capabilities through organizational restructuring and personnel reshuffle were highlighted during the third expanded meeting of the seventh central military commission of the ruling Workers’ Party. Details on what measures were discussed were not disclosed. “At the meeting, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un


By The Korea Herald
December 23, 2019

Analysis

India, China step up the wooing but Rajapaksa in no hurry to align Sri Lanka

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will try to balance the competing interests of China, India in the region. The conversation in regional capitals after the emphatic win of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the Sri Lankan elections last month centres around a central question: Will he manage to pull a Sheikh Hasina on India and China? The reference, of course, is to the Bangladesh Prime Minister who many believe has managed to successfully push her country’s interests by balancing the competing strategic ambitions of China and India in South Asia. And Rajapaksa knows a thing or two about protecting what he believes are his country’s core interests. After all, he braved the Western world’s intense criticism – and India’s acute discomfort given its large domestic Tamil population – of the means adopted by him as Defence Minister in his brother and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s


By Ishan Joshi
December 12, 2019

Analysis

Nepal moves up in Human Development Index but still lags behind in South Asia

Nepal’s human development index of 0,579 indicates that people are living longer, are more educated and have greater incomes, according to the Human Development Report. Despite global progress in tackling poverty, hunger and disease, a ‘new generation of inequalities’ indicates that many societies are not working as they should and Nepal is not an exception, according to a new human development report released on Tuesday. The old inequalities were based on access to health services and education whereas the new generation of inequalities is based on technology, education and the climate, according to the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report. “Previously, we talked about wealth as a major driver for inequality. Now, countries like Nepal are in another inequality trap and that concerns


By The Kathmandu Post
December 12, 2019

Analysis

Is polarisation driven by Hyper Information Disorder Syndrome?

In a study of Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Poland, Turkey and the US, writes ANDREW SHENG, scientists attribute populism to the rise of decisive leaders who push nationalism, demonise opponents and stir up issues that further divide societies. BANGKOK – Mass protests seem to be breaking out all over the place, from Hong Kong to Santiago, Tehran, Bolivia, Catalonia, Ecuador, France and Iraq to Lebanon.  The root causes of these protests have many local reasons, but there are common themes, such as inequality, corruption, incompetent governments, rural-urban migration, demography, anger, social media and demand for change. But underlying all these protests is the growing polarization of societies, increasingly manifested in viol


By Asia News Network
December 9, 2019

Analysis

Rohingya Crisis Fallout

Transparency International Bangladesh has painted a grim outlook for the crisis. Bangladesh faces long-term financial, political and security challenges as Rohingya repatriation may not happen anytime soon, said Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) Executive Director Dr Iftekharuzzaman. The fund from the international community for nearly one million Rohingyas may not sustain as no strong international initiative has been taken to oblige Myanmar for creating a conducive environment for the refugees to return soon, he said. “As a result, Bangladesh’s socio-economic instability will grow. There are risks of security at local and national levels. The crisis also creates political and diplomatic challenges for the government,” Iftekharuzzaman said. It also involves the risks of growing extremism as the people who face violence are more likely to become violent, he said at a press confere


By Daily Star
December 6, 2019

Analysis

Pyongyang to hold party meeting ahead of year-end deadline

Kim Jong-un rides up Paektusan again, highlights self-reliance and revolutionary spirit. North Korea will hold a plenary meeting around the end of December to decide on “crucial issues,” its state-run news agency said Wednesday. On the same day, the Korean Central News Agency reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un rode up Paektusan on a white horse accompanied by military commanders, raising speculation that the communist regime may take more provocative military actions as the year-end deadline it set for denuclearization talks with the US quickly approaches. North Korea’s Workers’ Party of Korea announced Tuesday that the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the WPK would convene around the end of December, Korea Central News Agency reported, “in order to discuss and decide on crucial issues in line with the needs of the development of the Korean revolution and the chan


By The Korea Herald
December 5, 2019