October 22, 2025
ISLAMABAD – IT has been some years since Anatol Lieven called Pakistan a ‘hard country’, a phrase which didn’t really get much traction. It just didn’t carry enough negative connotations; the rest of the world preferred sobriquets such as ‘failed state’ or ‘the most dangerous country in the world’. It left most of us who live in Pakistan with the sense that we had a tendency to attract attention for all the wrong reasons. And whatever our image, it wasn’t going to be one highlighting our softer attributes.
Now, it seems, we ourselves are trying to create a tough brand. Of being known as hard, a powerful state which no one can ride roughshod over, be it enemies within Pakistan or external.
These are not mere words. Just over the recent week, a protest originating from Lahore was not allowed to make its way to Islamabad, a destination which has been overrun by many others in the past. This was followed by a crackdown on the TLP, which had announced the protest, combined with allegations of state violence leading to loss of life. And while, the TLP itself has been guilty of violence on more than one occasion, the pattern of the state’s reaction has now become familiar. In the past couple of years, there have been protests in different parts of the country where political parties such as the PTI as well as citizen rights movements such as the PTM or BYC have all alleged loss of life. Religio-political organisations such as the TLP were treated a bit differently but not anymore. Those who convey the master’s message claim that the party will now be disbanded.
Around the same time, Islamabad’s relations with Kabul are also at an all-time low. It seems as if the time for playing nice is over and if the terrorist attacks in Pakistan continue, Islamabad will inflict pain on Afghanistan to change its big, bad ways. If earlier the pain was inflicted through refugee repatriation or border controls, now there will be more — the targeting of terrorists based there and skirmishes on the border. Over the weekend, these tensions led to our Gulf brethren entering the fray to soothe the two neighbours. What a turnaround; once seen as the patrons of the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan now needs intermediaries to make nice with them.
And these battles are being fought at a time when there are reports aplenty of another aggression from India. Be it official or unofficial voices, or even some from across the border, there are warnings enough of unfinished business on the eastern border. And what if this happens at a time when the western border is also tense? Especially as it’s not just the borders which can pose a threat? The tensions with both the neighbours are closely linked to the deteriorating security situation in two provinces — Balochistan and KP. Pakistan’s view is that the eastern and western neighbours are encouraging infiltration of terrorists and providing them with the finances. And so serious is this external factor that the debate over how the discontent in these provinces has been feeding into the violence has been abandoned.
In the tough posturing with aggressive neighbours and militant groups, there is confidence that Punjab and Sindh are under control. At this time and age, the absence of a mass people’s movement and violence means all is well. And if in one province, the water issue has led to simmering anger and in the other the government’s legitimacy is under question, these are smaller problems, for repression or concessions (as in Sindh on the water issue and in Azad Kashmir) can lead to a sense of quiet.
So much so that the state felt confident in cracking down on the TLP. Success has been declared, for there was no pushback and the street remained quiet. And there is so much applause that few are brave enough to ask what this will mean for the PML-N, whose members may have to face a backlash in their constituencies, as they did in 2018. This security threat will be an additional burden for them.
But overall, between the crackdowns on the people, parties, rights movements, militants and angry neighbours, it is difficult not to wonder whether the tough posturing or the effort at shaping a hard state may also be one that is overstretched. At odds with forces within as well as enemies without, what if the burden proves too much?
This is not to say it can’t win all these battles. Perhaps it can, though it is worth cautioning against excessive confidence. But there is another downside. Picking so many battles, especially with genuine grassroots movements or mainstream political parties, leaves the state in a mode of crisis management all the time.
Indeed, it is so busy fearing and controlling the people in general that it has no space and goodwill left to push through any reform which is politically hard. If an election has been managed in order to impose unpopular leaders, who is going to push the traders to pay taxes? It is easier to keep them happy and burden others. If a right-wing organisation has to be brought down, who will plan to improve the education sector and take on the wrath of the teachers who may take to the streets? One can only imagine decisions that have been postponed because Imran Khan and Ali Wazir have to be kept behind bars.
The list can go on and on. There is a price to be paid for this tough posturing. And what it really cost the hapless people of Pakistan will continue to be calculated for long after this period is over. For the moment, we can only guess what the eventual burden might be.
The writer is a journalist.