June 9, 2026
MANILA – President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s satisfaction ratings fell to their lowest level since he took office in 2022, according to the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, with the steepest deterioration coming from Mindanao.
An examination of SWS regional data shows Marcos’ satisfaction ratings have weakened far more sharply in Mindanao than in other parts of the country, according to an analysis by University of the Philippines Diliman professor and Inquirer data scientist Dr. Rogelio Alicor Panao.
The SWS survey, conducted March 24-31, found Marcos with a net satisfaction rating of -15, classified by SWS as “poor” and the lowest of his presidency.
The poll showed 33 percent of adult Filipinos were satisfied with the President’s performance, down from 40 percent in November 2025. Meanwhile, 49 percent said they were dissatisfied, up from 43 percent, while 18 percent were undecided.
That produced a net satisfaction rating down 12 points from -3 in November 2025 and below his previous record low of -12 in March 2025.
While most reports focused on the national figure, Panao said it was also important to examine where support was holding up and where it was weakening.
“A few days ago, survey firm Social Weather Stations (SWS) reported that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s net satisfaction had declined to -15 in March 2026,” Panao said in his analysis.
“While most reports focus on the overall net satisfaction, it is also worthwhile to examine the components to know where support is stabilizing, eroding, or collapsing across the country,” he added.
Mindanao’s sharp decline
Based on SWS data from October 2022 to March 2026, Panao pointed to Mindanao as the region showing the most dramatic change in public sentiment toward the President.
Marcos began his term with a +72 net satisfaction rating in Mindanao in October 2022, one of his strongest regional performances. Even as his national ratings softened in the succeeding years, the region initially appeared relatively stable.
“In September 2024, he still posted a positive +16 there, which was already the lowest regional score, while other regions remained substantially higher,” Panao said.
The trend shifted sharply in the months that followed. By December 2024, Marcos’ net satisfaction rating in Mindanao had dropped to -18, entering negative territory. It fell further to -23 in January 2025 before declining to -40 in February 2025.
Although the rating improved to -9 in June 2025, the recovery proved short-lived.
“By March 2026, SWS recorded Marcos at -40 once again in Mindanao, his worst regional score nationwide,” Panao said.
The latest SWS survey reflected that pattern. Mindanao posted Marcos’ weakest regional rating at -40, which SWS classifies as “bad.”
Only 20 percent of respondents in the region said they were satisfied with the President’s performance, while 61 percent said they were dissatisfied. By comparison, Marcos registered -31 in Metro Manila, -15 in the Visayas and +2 in Balance Luzon.
Beyond the national trend
For Panao, what stood out was not simply that Marcos’ ratings declined, but that the decline in Mindanao was steeper than elsewhere.
“What makes the trend especially striking is that this was not merely part of a uniform national decline,” he said.
“Marcos weakened across the country, but Balance Luzon still remained slightly positive at +2 by March 2026. Mindanao, by contrast, became strongly negative,” he added.
The timing of the downturn also drew Panao’s attention.
“Rodrigo Duterte would only be arrested in March 2025, meaning the collapse in Mindanao had already begun months earlier,” he said.
Panao noted that the decline predated Duterte’s arrest, which became a major political issue in Mindanao.
While survey data alone cannot establish the precise causes behind changing public sentiment, he said the trend coincided with the deterioration of relations between the Marcos administration and political forces aligned with former President Rodrigo Duterte.
“The data therefore suggest that the erosion was not triggered solely by Duterte’s arrest itself, but by the earlier unraveling of the Marcos-Duterte alliance,” Panao said.
“Long before the ICC issue became concrete, voters in Mindanao may already have been reacting to growing tensions between the administration and Duterte-aligned political forces,” he added.
“In that sense, Duterte’s arrest may have intensified an existing backlash rather than created it from scratch.”
A widening regional gap
SWS data show Marcos’ satisfaction ratings declined across all geographic areas. However, Panao said the regional breakdown suggested a growing divergence between Mindanao and the rest of the country.
“Mindanao, by contrast, became strongly negative,” he said. “In effect, the data suggest that the South no longer simply disapproves of Marcos. It increasingly appears politically estranged from a presidency that once depended on the durability of the Marcos-Duterte coalition.”
Panao’s analysis stops short of making electoral predictions, as SWS satisfaction surveys measure public approval rather than voting preferences. Still, he said the regional trend was one of the most significant developments beneath the national numbers.