China’s long-term care needs may rise to 6.6 trillion yuan by 2040

Experts suggest that the development of commercial care insurance should be promoted as China's population is ageing fast with growing needs for care and nursing.

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A nursing staff member plays games with a senior citizen at a home-based care center in Shenyang, Northeast China's Liaoning province, on Aug 22, 2022. [Photo/VCG]

September 15, 2022

BEIJING – China’s long-term care needs may rise to 6.6 trillion yuan ($950 billion) by 2040, Securities Daily reported on Wednesday.

The country’s long-term care protection gap, defined as the difference between protection needed for care services and available funding, is expected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan by 2040, according to a report jointly released by Insurance Association of China and Swiss Re Institute.

Experts suggest that the development of commercial care insurance should be promoted as China’s population is aging fast with growing needs for care and nursing.

The World Bank predicts that China’s aging population will accelerate further in the next two decades and the number of elderly people aged 60 and above will reach about 420 million by 2040, accounting for more than 30 percent of the total population.

Meanwhile, China’s disabled elderly will account for 18.3 percent of the elderly population during the same period, according to the statistics of the China National Committee on Aging.

Huge demand for elderly care services remains and it is necessary to build a multi-level and multi-pillar nursing system, said Xie Yuantao, dean of Insurance School at University of International Business and Economics.

It is suggested that long-term care social security insurance covers basic needs, solves the problem of providing affordable and accessible care, and long-term care commercial insurance focuses on improving the service quality and guarantees service level with precise and clear positioning, Xie said.

The long-term care insurance market in China is still in an early stage of development. Policy and regulation need to be improved before the market can enter a phase of high growth, according to the report.

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