June 23, 2023
MANILA -The Philippines could join the world’s 20 biggest economies in terms of value in less than three decades thanks to its large population and fast-improving industries like manufacturing, according to BMI Research.
The Fitch Group subsidiary said in a report the global ranking of economies are primed for a “major reshuffle” starting in the 2030s, with some emerging economies, including the Philippines, seen giving developed economies a run for their money.
BMI sees China overtaking the United States at the top spot in 2027 and outgrowing the US “by a large margin” by 2050.
Likewise, India is expected to get a bigger share of the global economy. Currently ranked fifth-largest, the South Asian behemoth is seen leapfrogging to third place—currently held by Japan—in 2035.
“Besides the two emerging market giants, we are particularly optimistic about Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, all of which have growing populations and are rapidly developing high value-added sectors, such as manufacturing,” BMI said.
On par with Russia
BMI expects the Philippines to be the world’s 18th-largest economy in 2050, tied with Russia, each accounting for 2.3 percent of global wealth.
Based on data as of 2021, the World Bank places the Philippines at 38th place with the domestic economy valued at $394 billion. Russia is at 11th place with $1.8 trillion.
This means that, in 2021, the Philippines had a 0.4-percent share of the $96.5-trillion global output while Russia accounted for 1.8 percent.
BMI said Russia, along with Brazil and Mexico, will experience relative economic decline over the forecast period.
Over the 27-year forecast period, the Russian economy is expected to slide from 11th this year with a 2-percent contribution to the global economy to 15th (2.2 percent) in 2035, until the Philippines catches up to the global superpower by mid-century.
“Given the significant timescales involved, risks to these forecasts are significant,” BMI said, adding that it was unlikely that all of the 206 economies covered by the report will exist in 2050 in their present forms.
The forecasts are based on the United Nations’ population projections and an extrapolation of the themes that BMI expects will drive economic growth in the 2020s and 2030s.
“Given the long time horizon, even small changes could have large effects,” the company said.