April 1, 2024
JAKARTA – Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto embarked Sunday on a three-day trip to China in what analysts see as a key opportunity for the president-elect to prime his relationship with Beijing ahead of his inauguration and amid simmering tensions between the United States and China in Indonesia’s backyard.
His visit to Beijing will be Prabowo’s first overseas trip after the General Elections Commission (KPU) confirmed his landslide victory in the Feb. 14 election.
Defense Ministry spokesman Brig. Gen. Edwin Adrian Sumantha confirmed the departure of Prabowo’s entourage on Sunday morning, which included ministry officials and intelligence officers, a House of Representatives lawmaker and Prabowo’s son, Ragowo Hediprasetyo.
The minister is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Qiang in Beijing and will remain in China until Wednesday.
“The main aim of this visit is to strengthen bilateral relations between Indonesia and China and increase cooperation in the defense sector,” Edwin told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.
China first announced plans for the visit on Friday, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying noting that the president-elect and Gerindra Party chairman would officially be visiting until Tuesday.
At a regular press briefing in Beijing later that day, another spokesperson, Lin Jian, said that President Xi had invited Prabowo for talks with him and Premier Li Qiang to discuss bilateral relations and “matters of mutual interest”.
“Mr. Prabowo’s visit to China will be his first overseas visit as president-elect. It fully demonstrates the robustness of China-Indonesia ties,” Lin told the press, according to an official transcript from the ministry website.
As the future leader of Southeast Asia’s largest economy, analysts see Prabowo’s visit as part of Beijing’s continued investment in Indonesia, in addition to the broader context of fierce US-China competition for influence in the region.
Balancing act
China has spent billions of dollars on Indonesia under the Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure push and in the development of downstream supply chains such as the nickel smelter industry, tourism and electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing.
Prabowo previously positioned himself as the successor to popular President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who is barred from reelection but was key to cementing Indonesia’s close ties with China over the course of nearly a decade.
Lin said the two countries have “a long-standing friendship and robust partnership” under Jokowi, and that Prabowo’s visit was an opportunity to further strengthen relations, deepen strategic cooperation and synergize development strategies “for the good of the region and beyond”.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian side said strategic dialogue and cooperation with China is “vital for regional security and stability”, but also suggested that the visit this week had been in the works prior to the election.
For many years, Indonesia has kept a steady balance between support for the US and for China amid their strategic rivalry.
Jakarta has been at the forefront of regional efforts to introduce guidelines for avoiding open conflict in the South China Sea, a conduit for global sea trade that is beset by overlapping territorial claims by China and several Southeast Asian nations.
The defense minister has also managed to curry favor with the US, having conducted more joint military drills in the region and even striking a deal to procure F-15 EX fighter jets to modernize Indonesia’s aging fleet. Prabowo was also removed from a list of figures banned from entering the US that he was a on because of his troubling human rights record.
However, analysts also suggest that Prabowo has an interest in learning how China carries out its defense modernization with one of the largest budgets in the world.
Earlier this year, Prabowo expressed equal respect for China and the US, and warned during a televised debate on defense and foreign policy in January that unprepared nations may get trampled in the event of armed conflict.
Strategic partner
Last month, the KPU declared Prabowo and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka – Jokowi’s eldest son – the winners of the closely-watched election, having secured some 90 million votes. It was one of the biggest election routs achieved by any world leader.
But rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo allege that Prabowo was unfairly aided by Jokowi in the lead-up to the race, culminating in their demand for the Constitutional Court to order an election rerun.
If the result of the election is allowed to stand, Prabowo will be sworn in as Indonesia’s eighth president in October.
As a retired army general with a US military education, Prabowo has been touted as a national security hawk who may balance Indonesia’s close economic links with China with broadly US-leaning defense and military cooperation.
The US was among the first countries to congratulate Prabowo after the KPU announced his election victory on March 20. China, through President Xi, sent a congratulatory letter to Prabowo the following day.
Xi’s latest invitation to Prabowo has sent a clear signal that China does not want to lose Indonesia as a key economic partner with major influence in Southeast Asia, Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro, a Gadjah Mada University (UGM) international relations expert, told the Post.
And while Prabowo will “no doubt continue” to maintain a strong economic partnership with China like his predecessor, his military background might indicate a more assertive approach to tensions over China’s maneuvers in disputed regional waters.
“On the other hand, the US might further leverage its partnership with Indonesia to prevent greater Chinese influence [in the region],” Rachmat said on Saturday.
“Prabowo might be more prudent in building relations with both of them.” (tjs)