May 7, 2024
JAKARTA – With five months to go before his inauguration as the successor to President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, president-elect Prabowo Subianto has ample time to complete his East Asia introductory tour by paying a courtesy call to South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in Seoul.
Prabowo visited China and Japan early last month, as well as Malaysia.
He obviously won strong assurances from both China and Japan that they would continue to maintain close economic and diplomatic ties with his incoming government. But equally important is South Korea’s support.
Of course, Prabowo fully realizes that all international relations should be based on the principle of mutual benefit, and that all binding bilateral and multilateral agreements should be upheld.
He also knows very well that China, Japan and South Korea became ASEAN’s dialogue partners in 1997, when the regional bloc launched the ASEAN Plus Three economic cooperation during the second informal summit in Kuala Lumpur.
East Asia has since become ASEAN’s most important partner in terms of economic, political and security cooperation, and ministerial and leaders’ meetings have been held under the ASEAN Plus Three banner.
The bloc also hosts regular meetings with the region’s larger partners in the East Asia Summit (EAS), which involves all ASEAN 10 member states and Australia, India, New Zealand, Russia and the United States, as well as China, Japan and South Korea.
The regional forums are no stranger to Prabowo in his capacity as defense minister, a position he has held since the beginning of Jokowi’s second term in 2019, and his recent East Asia tour suggests he is keen to maintain ASEAN as a priority in Indonesian diplomacy.
During his visit to Beijing, Prabowo assured President Xi Jinping that he would maintain continuity in Indonesia’s close bilateral relationship with the world’s second-largest economy, which emerged during the Jokowi presidency as its leading economic, trade and investment partner.
And as defense minister, Prabowo knows very well the rivalry between China and the United States over influence in the Asia-Pacific, specifically the increasingly worrying tensions in the Taiwan Strait the maritime disputes in the South China Sea.
With regard to the latter, China’s persistent claim that the North Natuna Sea, part of Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), has been a traditional fishing ground for millennia is particularly irritating for Indonesia. The issue has the potential to irritate the good relations between the two neighbors in the unforeseeable future.
When welcoming Prabowo, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida surely expected the Indonesian president-elect not to repeat the humiliating saga of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail (HSR) project. In September 2015, President Jokowi awarded the HSR tender to China instead of Japan, though the latter had met all requirements, including a comprehensive feasibility study, a low interest rate and a long-term payment deal.
While South Korea was not on Prabowo’s April itinerary, he can still plan a trip to Seoul to meet with president Yoon. This would provide him with a perfect opportunity to settle the stalled cooperation between the two countries to build fighter jets.
In principle, the two countries’ leaders have agreed to resume the collaboration, with Indonesia promising to fulfill its cost share in the joint project. It would be much more productive for Prabowo’s incoming government if he could restart the project before October.
Indonesia may ask to renegotiate but if so, this should be communicated transparently. Indonesia is very important for South Korea, and vice versa. Failure to reach a settlement that is acceptable for both sides will erode international confidence in Indonesia.
As reported by Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, president Yoon called Prabowo on April 17 to congratulate him on his election victory and to suggest strengthening bilateral cooperation in various sectors, such as defense, electric vehicles and infrastructure.
Yoon also expressed his hope for further bilateral efforts in championing freedom, peace and prosperity with Indonesia, one of Seoul’s key partners in the Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative (KASI).
Jakarta and Seoul already have several defense cooperation initiatives, from procurement to the joint weapons development, but South Korean media have quoted officials expressing their frustration with Indonesia’s very slow progress in realizing its obligations.
In February, when Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi met with her South Korean counterpart Cho Tae-yul, the two countries agreed to resume collaboration on developing next-generation KF-21 fighter jets.
The KF-21, which is being developed by Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) with the partial backing of Indonesia, is designed to be a cheaper, less stealthy alternative to the US-built F-35 on which South Korea relies.
But Indonesia has held off on its payments for nearly two years. South Korea estimates it has paid around 278 billion won (US$209. 5 million) so far, with almost 1 trillion won in arrears.
In 2018, Indonesia sought to renegotiate its side of the deal to take pressure off its foreign exchange reserves, and later offered to pay its share in the form of barter.
When receiving South Korean Ambassador to Indonesia Lee Sang-deok in March, Prabowo reportedly assured the envoy that Jakarta would be settling its arrears soon.
“We are committed to exploring the opportunity to strengthen collaboration and are open to working together on stronger technology transfer,” Prabowo said in a statement on the Defense Ministry website.
Prabowo has achieved a major diplomatic scoop with China’s Xi and Japan’s Kishida, so it will be opportune for him to visit Yoon in Seoul to complete his East Asia tour before he becomes president.