June 4, 2024
KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim faces the spectre of several by-elections in Malay-majority constituencies that his ruling coalition had lost in recent polls, which could deprive him of a two-thirds super-majority in Parliament.
Leading opposition party Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia declared the memberships of six rogue MPs void when they failed to retract their support for Datuk Seri Anwar after a 14-day notice period ended on May 31.
The Speaker of Parliament, who is a close ally of Mr Anwar, will now be forced to pick one of two options. He must declare the wards vacant under the anti-party hopping law (APHL) – thus triggering by-elections – or decide that the as-yet untested legislation, which took effect on Oct 5, 2022, does not apply in this case.
Bersatu has said it will write to the Speaker when Parliament reconvenes on June 24, informing him that the rogue MPs failed to respond to party orders to declare their allegiances by May 31.
Observers believe that Speaker Johari Abdul, a top official in Mr Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) before taking up the parliamentary position, is caught between a rock and a hard place.
Should Tan Sri Johari refuse to declare vacancies for the seats – thus averting by-elections – this will not only undermine the APHL, which the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance lobbied hard to implement before the November 2022 general election, but also the commitment to reforms pledged by Mr Anwar’s multi-coalition government.
This will give further ammunition to critics who accuse PH of double standards and hypocrisy, given how the Anwar administration has not walked the talk on reforms such as equal constituency allocations, reviewing key appointments to institutions like the anti-graft agency, and broadening freedom of speech.
However, with state polls and other by-elections since the general election showing ebbing support by the crucial Malay majority, analysts believe that keeping the Bersatu rebels in their seats will be the priority, given the lion’s share of the electorate in these areas who are Malay.
“So what if the APHL is rendered useless? The political cost is higher if they get thrashed in the by-elections,” independent political risk consultant Adib Zalkapli told The Straits Times.
Mr Anwar currently has the backing of 153 members of the 222-strong Parliament. If Bersatu retains all six federal seats, it would not only bring the government below the two-thirds mark of 148, it would also further cement the administration’s inability to recover Malay voter support.
But party president Muhyiddin Yassin said that only 25 MPs and 58 state assemblymen responded with signed letters affirming their allegiance to the party.
In total, Bersatu holds 31 parliamentary seats and 60 state seats.
Tan Sri Muhyiddin declared on June 1: “According to Article 10.4 of Bersatu’s Constitution, non-compliance by Bersatu elected representatives on any instruction issued by the Supreme Council is akin to terminating their memberships immediately.”
Former Selangor Bersatu chief Abdul Rashid Asari was also a non-respondent, having earlier declared his support for Selangor Chief Minister Amirudin Shari, a PKR vice-president until last year.
The APHL states that a seat will be vacant if the incumbent is no longer a member of the party under which they were elected, save if they were expelled or the party ceases to exist. Bersatu amended its Constitution in March so that a refusal to abide by party directives would be tantamount to leaving the party.
The amendments mirror those done in 2022 by the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Amanah Negara – PKR’s partners in the PH coalition – as well as that done in 2023 by Umno, another partner in the PH-led administration.
In response to Mr Muhyiddin’s declaration, Gua Musang MP Azizi Abu Naim – one of the Bersatu elected representatives who declared their support for Mr Anwar – has raised questions on the legitimacy of the notice sent to them by the party to declare their stance.
Mr Azizi – who is also a state assemblyman in Kelantan, thus bringing the potential number of by-elections to eight – told local media on June 2 that the group had written a letter to Bersatu secretary-general Hamzah Zainudin seeking an explanation on the legitimacy of the party notice.
“In the letter, we are also seeking explanation from the party on who are involved in the special committee tasked with scrutinising the response to the notice from all the representatives.”
Nonetheless, analysts believe that Mr Azizi does not have much of an argument, and his point “does not hold water”.
“The idea of ‘ceasing to be a member’ (automatic relinquishment of membership) is actually to take away discretion. Things become very straightforward – you do this, you have the consequence. No discretion, no negotiation,” Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat told ST.
In the event that by-elections are held, it would be a messy process for Mr Anwar’s allies. The Premier may have to allow the turncoats a chance to defend their seats to avoid the embarrassing situation where they recant their support for him.
While the Bersatu rebels could contest as Umno candidates, the Malay party’s own warlords would surely make claims to all these seats. This was seen in the May by-election for Kuala Kubu Baharu in Selangor, a low-stakes vote which nonetheless witnessed heated debate among ruling parties over who would represent the government to defend the state constituency.