June 20, 2024
KUALA LUMPUR – Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is a deft operator in foreign policy. In fact, he has made several trips abroad since becoming Prime Minister in 2022.
While some have criticised his travels, I think it bears importance because our world is in turmoil and it is disdainful to say that foreign visits by our leaders do not help in bolstering our economic, political and cultural heft.
That brings me back to the question at hand, is the West in decline and if yes, what role can we play to safeguard our interests?
For starters, the notion that the West is in decline is a multifaceted argument, shaped by political, economic, and social dynamics. This narrative, particularly in the context of the ongoing turmoil in Europe, is due to the Ukraine war and the rise of far-right movements. There is no simple answer.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 has significantly destabilised Europe. The conflict has not only resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with over eight million Ukrainians displaced,
but it has also triggered economic and political repercussions across the continent. The European Union (EU) has imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, which in turn has led to disruptions in energy supplies. Russia supplied 40% of Europe’s natural gas before the war, but this has drastically reduced, leading to an energy crisis.
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has been particularly affected. In 2022, Germany’s inflation rate hit a 40-year high, largely driven by soaring energy costs. The German government’s response included a €200bil relief package to shield households and businesses from energy price spikes. Such measures indicate the profound impact of the conflict on European stability and economic health.
In the recent 2024 European elections, far-right parties made substantial gains, underscoring a shift in the political landscape. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France performed strongly, solidifying its position as a major political force. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a far-right party, continues to influence the national agenda. These results reflect broader trends across the continent, where far-right parties in countries like Hungary, Poland, and Spain have also seen increased support. For the first time in the post-World War II era, the Alternative for Germany, also a far-right party, won the second highest number of votes.
In the United States, the far-right has also seen a resurgence. The 2021 Capitol riot highlighted the extent of political polarisation and the influence of extremist groups. These movements challenge liberal democratic norms, promoting nationalism, anti-immigration policies, and skepticism towards international institutions. The rise of such ideologies indicates a shift in political landscapes that could undermine the cohesion and stability of Western democracies.
Donald Trump’s expected victory in the 2024 Presidential election will likely fan this wave further.
The rise of the far right is attributable to the economic challenges the west faces. Slow economic growth, high levels of public debt, and growing inequality are prevalent issues. For instance, the United States, despite being the world’s largest economy, grapples with an ever-increasing national debt, which reached $31.4 trillion in 2022. Additionally, income inequality remains a critical issue, with the top 1% of Americans holding more wealth than the bottom 90% combined.
Europe faces similar economic hurdles. The Eurozone’s economic growth has been sluggish, averaging around 1.2% per year from 2010 to 2019. The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated these issues, leading to a sharp contraction of 6.3% in 2020. While recovery efforts are underway, the long-term economic outlook remains uncertain, particularly with the additional strain from the Ukraine war.
China, which has long harboured hegemonic desires, sees an opening for an alternative global narrative one that is anchored on “strongman” leadership, less adherence to the liberal rules based international order and unabashed pursuit of natural resources to sustain economic growth and dominance.
China, with its Belt and Road Initiative, is extending its influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Its GDP growth has averaged around 6.7% annually over the past decade, positioning it as the second-largest economy globally. This shift is evident in various spheres, including technology, where China leads in 5G deployment and artificial intelligence research.
In contrast, Western countries struggle to maintain their hegemony. The US-China trade war and the EU’s strategic dependency on Chinese manufacturing underscore the changing dynamics. This geopolitical shift suggests a relative decline in Western influence, as emerging economies gain prominence.
Furthermore, Western societies seem to be at war with itself. The rise of far left woke movements and unprecedented assertiveness of those who want to challenge settled norms have tested Western societies like never before.
Increasing polarisation and social divisions within Western societies further contribute to the perception of decline. In the United States, political polarisation has reached unprecedented levels. A
2020 Pew Research Centre study found that 77% of Americans believe their country is more divided than ever. This polarisation hampers effective governance and exacerbates societal fractures. Europe’s political, economic, and social divisions have been driven by issues such as Brexit, Covid-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine conflict and this has been compounded by the rise of populist and
nationalist movements, which has further polarised societies on issues like immigration, economic inequality, and EU integration, reflecting deep-seated regional differences across the continent.
However, it is imperative to highlight the strengths and vitality the West contributes globally. The West remains a hub of innovation and technological advancement. The US leads in sectors such as biotechnology, aerospace, and digital technology. Silicon Valley continues to be a global centre for tech innovation, home to leading companies like Apple, Google, and Tesla. Moreover, Western democratic institutions, though tested, have shown resilience. The peaceful transfer of power in the US following the contentious 2020 election, and the ongoing efforts within the EU to strengthen democratic governance, are testaments to this resilience. Countries like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea that want to form an alternative axis are also rife with their own polarities and challenges.
While I posit the West is in decline, the alternative to the liberal rules-based order may not be all that palatable because the alternative offers less transparency, governance issues, and potential compromises on human rights and freedoms. The Western rules-based liberal order offers stable, well-regulated markets, fostering innovation and economic stability. Further, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains a sore point in international law because Ukraine is a sovereign state and not a vassal to Russia.
So where does this leave Malaysia?
To navigate the perceived Western decline and the rise of China and Russia, Malaysia should diversify its economic partnerships by strengthening ties with China and Asean while exploring new markets.
Leveraging regional trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) can boost trade. Maintaining balanced relations with the US and Europe is crucial. Enhancing national competitiveness through investment in education, particularly in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields, and fostering innovation is essential.
Strengthening bilateral relations and ensuring robust diplomatic ties with both Western and emerging powers will help Malaysia thrive in this evolving global landscape.
Also, good foreign policy will yield economic benefits and Malaysia must make the most of this new great contestation of power.