July 23, 2024
JAKARTA – May world leaders are likely recalculating their positions after United States President Joe Biden’s announcement on Sunday that he would give up his reelection bid and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him in the race against Donald Trump in November. Before Biden called it quits, Trump was widely predicted to easily win his second term.
Biden deserves our applause for his statesmanship in deciding to sacrifice his ambition for the greater interest of his party and the American people. This is also a reminder to elderly leaders around the world, including in ASEAN, that they should learn from Biden. They need to know when to step aside, before they are pushed out of office.
Traditionally, developing countries, including Indonesia, and dictators feel more comfortable dealing with Republican administrations because the conservative party always puts a high priority on economic and security interests, while Democrats are known to be very demanding on issues of human rights, labor, women’s rights, freedom of speech and religion.
President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has never been the target of attacks from Trump, who served his first term in 2017-2021. Jokowi also has a good relationship with Biden.
For Trump, Biden’s departure could be another advantage, as he will only have to face one new Democratic candidate, either the vice president or another politician. Trump is favored by many to win his second term, but he cannot take Harris lightly if the Democrats eventually nominate her. Harris is a former prosecutor who could capitalize on Trump’s conviction in an abuse of power case and other scandals.
There is still one month left for the party to determine its final candidate for the race. But several top Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former president Barack Obama and former House speaker Nancy Pelosi, did not explicitly throw their support behind Harris on Sunday, raising questions about which route the party will take in the days ahead
Harris may have the upper hand because she is part of the incumbent administration. But she will also face difficulties, given the fact that she is a woman and a person of color. Trump is very skilled at manipulating issues like white supremacy and masculinity.
For Indonesian president-elect Prabowo Subianto, whoever the next US president will be, a Democrat or a Republican, does not matter to him. As defense minister, Prabowo has been dealing with the Biden administration. As a former Army general, he will likely feel it easier to talk with the Republicans.
At least in the last 10 years, the high enthusiasm of the Americans to dictate and interfere in the domestic affairs of other countries has been fading, because now developing countries are becoming less dependent on the US, partly because they have more alternatives, especially with China. The White House can continue preaching to the world, but it is also aware that its bargaining position has weakened.
The US is no longer in a position to dictate to China, although it remains the world’s largest economy and strongest military. Many are not prepared to accept the reality that US might is now weakening, which is why Trump’s mantra “Make America Great Again” landed him the victory in the 2016 election and may work again in the upcoming presidential race.
Leaders across the world, including Jokowi and his successor Prabowo, are closely watching the developments in the US and may have to prepare a plan B if Trump suffers a second straight defeat to the Democratic candidate.
Regardless of the final outcome, a Trump vs. Harris duel, if it materializes, will be interesting to watch. It will be a showdown between a prosecutor and a convict.