July 26, 2024
SEOUL – On July 21, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party’s nominee. The announcement came after weeks of turmoil following his disastrous debate performance at the end of June. Biden tried to resist calls for his withdrawal but bowed to reality as support for his candidacy collapsed in the Democratic Party amid weakening poll numbers in the race against former President Donald Trump. Trump, meanwhile, survived an assassination attempt in mid-July and gained momentum from the Republican convention only days later.
Kamala Harris has yet to receive the Democratic nomination officially, but the party has rallied behind her, and no opposition has yet to emerge. She will soon have to choose a vice-presidential candidate to complete the ticket. Trump chose JD Vance, a senator from Ohio and successful author, who has morphed into a MAGA firebrand. Vice presidential candidates usually have little influence over the final outcome, but Harris’ choice will be important in what is expected to be a close election.
After nearly a month of upheaval, where does the election stand now? And what does it mean for South Korea?
President Biden was on a trajectory to almost certain defeat for I believe two reasons: his age and feelings about the economy. Voters thought Biden was old when they elected him in 2020 but they did so to get rid of Trump amid the chaos of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. As 2024 approached, doubts about Biden’s age only grew and finally exploded after the debate, where he appeared far more elderly than expected. At 59 and full of energy, Kamala Harris shifts the age issue to Trump, who at 78 is now the oldest presidential candidate in history.
The bigger problem for Harris is the economy. Biden has a strong record of accomplishment in domestic and foreign policy, but inflation and economic unease have made it difficult for him to claim credit for economic progress during his term. Inflation has come down, but many voters remember preinflation prices and remain in a bad mood about the cost of living. To win, Harris will need to address the economic insecurity that pervades the country.
Harris is also burdened by the poor historical track record of sitting vice presidents winning elections. In US history, only two sitting vice presidents have moved directly into the White House under the current election system: Martin Van Buren in 1836 and George H.W. Bush in 1988. The list of defeats, meanwhile, is long: John C. Breckinridge in 1860, Richard Nixon in 1960, Humbert Humphrey in 1968, Al Gore in 2000. Four have run after serving as vice president, but only Nixon and Biden won. Eight have failed to get their party’s nomination.
Each of the vice presidents who sought the presidency did so after at least eight years of their party having been in power. The desire for change after eight years explains much of the poor track record of sitting vice presidents.
The popularity of the president is important here. The two winners, Van Buren and Bush, served under popular presidents who redefined the politics of their time. Nixon and Gore, who lost very close elections, also served under popular presidents.
This history combined with Biden’s low approval ratings suggests I believe that Harris will face strong headwinds. This election is no average election because of three factors: a defeated former president has not been nominated again since 1892, a president has not voluntarily forsaken reelection since 1844, and a president has never withdrawn from the race shortly before a convention.
The strangeness of this election could work in Harris’ favor because historical precedents may be less salient. Biden is unpopular, but so is Trump, who remains one of the most controversial figures in US political history. Trump won the White House in 2016, but in 2020 he lost the popular vote to Biden by 4.5 percent.
To win, Harris needs to highlight Trump’s weaknesses while offering hope that she can address the economic malaise in the country. Focusing on her life story or vice presidency alone will not work.
For South Korea, a Harris victory would mean a continuation of Biden’s policies of strengthening US alliances around the world. In the Indo-Pacific, this means deepening cooperation among nations wary of China’s growing assertiveness. As a key player in the effort, South Korea will most likely receive warm attention from a President Harris.