September 9, 2024
JAKARTA – With little over a month left in office, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has suffered a series of political setbacks that observers say reflect his waning influence as the transfer of executive power approaches.
Jokowi’s focus on building infrastructure and distributing social aid has earned him consistently high approval ratings throughout his presidency, with a rating of more than 70 percent earlier this year. But the outgoing leader suffered a major blow last month when waves of demonstrations managed to block an attempt in the legislature to alter candidate age requirements in a manner that would have allowed his youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, to run for regional office in November.
People took to the streets to protest the plan, formed by lawmakers allied with Jokowi and president-elect Prabowo Subianto, to revise the Regional Elections Law to circumvent two Constitutional Court rulings: one that upheld the prevailing candidate age rules that barred Kaesang from running and another that made more parties eligible to nominate regional candidates, whether alone or in smaller alliances.
Observers said the failed attempt to change the election rules represented a significant setback for Jokowi, who, despite his popularity, could not stand against the will of the people.
“Jokowi may have been able to execute his various plans quite smoothly in the past, but there are limits to what he can do, no matter how much influence he wields,” political analyst Yoes Kenawas said.
Kaesang’s absence from the November regional elections indicates that Jokowi, who in the past was able to ensure the passage of nearly any legislation he wished, is now seeing his influence decline, as none of the eight parties in his ruling coalition appear to be under his command any longer.
After Prabowo won February’s presidential election – aided by Jokowi’s tacit backing, popularity and huge political sway after a decade in charge – pro-Jokowi parties declared their support for the incoming president, allowing Prabowo to secure a majority in the legislature.
Jokowi’s erstwhile backer the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which parted ways with the outgoing President in response to his tacit support for Prabowo rather than its own nominee, has yet to decide whether it will support or oppose the Prabowo administration.
The plan to revise the regional elections law was abandoned after Prabowo reportedly met with Jokowi amid escalating protests. Prabowo reportedly advised the outgoing President to abide by the Constitutional Court’s decisions and to tell his youngest son to focus on his business rather than participating in regional elections over concerns that the protests would escalate.
Read also: Prabowo calls on politicians to put public above themselves
“Jokowi’s ability to exert influence, either by carrot or stick, is inseparable from the executive power of the presidency […],” said Ian Wilson, a senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Research Centre at Murdoch University in Perth. “With only weeks remaining in office as President, his political influence is predictably waning as political parties and actors gravitate towards the incoming president.”
Even after lawmakers dropped the revision, Jokowi and his family continued to face public anger on social media.
Some netizens now refer to Jokowi by his abandoned birth name, Mulyono, to express their disappointment with the President.
On social media, Kaesang and his wife Erina Gudono have also become the subject of intense public scrutiny for flaunting a trip on a private jet to the United States last month as protests spread nationwide against lawmakers’ attempts to change the regional election rules.
Read also: Prabowo downplays rumors of rift with Jokowi
“Jokowi will be hard-pressed to consolidate a political position moving forward. In particular, in the wake of the serious collapse of his popularity due to his blatant meddling in legal processes and the excesses of his family,” Wilson said.
“Jokowi’s predicament is one produced by his desire to retain power and influence beyond the end of his tenure,” Wilson added.
Missed the lifeboat?
Jokowi’s efforts to secure a new political vehicle before leaving office in October also appear to be facing complications.
His main sponsor the PDI-P parted ways with Jokowi in part over his ambition to nurture his own political dynasty through his eldest son, vice-president elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who ran as Prabowo’s running mate in February.
Read also: ‘They come in droves, but leave in droves’, Jokowi says near the end of his presidency
Reports later emerged that Jokowi was seeking to install a key ally at the helm of the Golkar Party, the nation’s second-largest party after the PDI-P, and secure a position for himself as head of the party’s advisory board, a role that traditionally holds sway over Golkar’s leader.
Jokowi’s close ally Bahlil Lahadalia, who also serves in his cabinet, was unanimously elected the new Golkar chairman in an uncontested leadership race in August after Airlangga Hartarto suddenly resigned from the leadership post despite his success in bringing the party the second-most votes in February’s legislative election.
Bahlil, however, denied that he was seeking to secure Jokowi a seat on the party’s advisory board after his election and instead appointed Agus Gumiwang, another close ally of Jokowi, to chair the board.
Read also: New Golkar leader Bahlil warns not to mess with ‘Javanese king’
Researcher Nicky Fahrizal of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said the fact that Jokowi had not secured a seat on the Golkar advisory board despite having Bahlil take over the party could indicate resistance within Golkar.
“Golkar has plenty of senior members who wield influence in the party. Bahlil must be able to garner unanimous support from these senior figures before he can bring Jokowi in. This is not an easy matter to achieve,” Nicky said.
Some senior party members, such as Aburizal Bakrie and close Jokowi ally Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan have expressed their objection to “external forces” meddling in Golkar’s internal affairs, saying that the nation’s oldest party must be able to stand on its own feet.