December 19, 2024
ISLAMABAD – IT has been a decade since the attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar, which killed some 150 students and staff in December 2014.
It was the darkest moment in Pakistan’s battle against terrorism. Never again, we vowed. Yet, 10 years later, the terrorist outfits responsible for the killing are operating with even greater impunity.
The year 2024 witnessed the highest number of terrorist attacks since 2014. The latest wave of militant raids in KP and Balochistan is a grim reminder of the resurgence of the menace with greater ferocity. It’s a nightmare situation for the country in the face of growing political instability. Are we losing the war against terrorism?
There has been a marked escalation in terrorist attacks over the past five years. Targeted killings, suicide bombings and attacks on security installations have become a daily affair. While the former tribal areas of Bajaur and North and South Waziristan have been the worst hit, the terrorists have also extended their activities to the adjoining districts. Some of the southern KP districts are now virtually controlled by the militants.
Most of these attacks have been claimed by various factions of banned outfits, which now seem to be better equipped and more organised. In the last five years, militant groups are reported to have carried out more than 2,400 attacks, most of them in KP. Law-enforcement agencies have been the main targets. A crumbling provincial administration and increasingly unpopular federal forces have been unable to stop the militant onslaught.
According to the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), 1,627 security personnel were killed in militant attacks during the period January 2020 to November 2024. Such a high number of fatalities among the security forces, both civilian and military, is extremely alarming and raises questions about our counterterrorism (CT) strategy. The highest number of casualties have occurred over the last two years.
While 508 security personnel were martyred in 645 militant attacks last year, 2024 has seen a marked escalation in terrorist-related incidents with 856 attacks claiming the lives of 476 security personnel before the end of the year, according to PICSS.
In many cases, the militants have engaged in gun battles with the security forces. Such audacious attacks demonstrate the impunity attained by the militants in the troubled districts. There have also been instances where the militants have taken security officers hostage.
All this has happened as security officials claim success in CT operations being carried out in KP and Balochistan. There is no sign of cessation in militant violence, with reports of the banned TTP extending its activities to other districts. A large number of militants are present in central KP too.
What is most worrisome is the emerging nexus between what is being described as Talibanism and sectarianism. Recent sectarian violence in the former tribal region of Kurram, which has left scores dead, has given a more lethal dimension to the resurgent violent militancy. The affected area has been completely shut for the past several weeks, with the administration failing to end tensions.
Sectarian conflict is not a new phenomenon in Kurram and Orakzai districts, but the situation has become much more complex with the return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan next door and the TTP’s subsequent resurgence. Other external factors, too, have made things worse. The stand-off between the federal government and the PTI-led provincial administration has seriously affected law enforcement in the region as well.
It may be true that the return of the Taliban government in Afghanistan has given a boost to TTP-led militancy in the country. The so-called Islamic emirate has become the main sanctuary for the TTP and other militant groups challenging the Pakistani state. But it is mainly the absence of a coherent CT and counter-extremism policy at home that has allowed terrorist groups much greater space.
Engaging in so-called peace talks with the TTP on the persuasion of the Afghan Taliban in 2021 proved to be a disastrous move. In the process, Pakistan released scores of TTP commanders, many of them hard-core murderers.
The talks led by intelligence officials also permitted thousands of armed militants to return to Pakistan. While the top TTP leaders stayed back in Afghanistan, many other operatives returned to resume their activities. The negotiations failed after the TTP called off the ceasefire and resumed their attacks on Pakistan’s security forces.
Interestingly, while the talks started towards the end of the Imran Khan government, the new PDM administration continued the engagement with the militant outfit. But it is the security establishment that is largely to be blamed for the aggravation of Pakistan’s terrorism challenges.
Meanwhile, there has been an exponential rise in terrorist attacks in Balochistan. While the nature of the security challenges in the two provinces is different, the combination has added to the complexity of the terrorist threat. Security personnel and installations are mainly targeted by Baloch separatist groups. There have also been reports of some kind of a tactical alliance between certain factions of the TTP and Baloch militants, which has added to the security challenge.
Also, the recent surge in attacks on Chinese nationals working on various CPEC projects in KP and Balochistan has been most worrisome. The targeting of Chinese nationals by militant groups with diverse agendas and operating in different parts of the country is quite intriguing. There is certainly some truth to the allegations of involvement of foreign elements in the latest terror attacks.
But more importantly, Pakistan needs to review its CT strategy and put its own house in order. The real issue is whether we have a long-term strategy to counter the growing threat. Kinetic operations alone cannot work. There is a need to formulate a holistic approach.
Unfortunately, worsening political instability in the country has made the task much more difficult. A divided country cannot effectively deal with the existential threat.