January 14, 2025
SEOUL – More than 300 North Korean soldiers are estimated to have been killed, with some 2,700 wounded, in Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service on Monday.
Rep. Lee Seong-kweun, who was briefed by NIS Director Cho Tae-yong, said North Korea is believed to have sent about 11,000 soldiers to help Russia in its war since October last year. North Korean soldiers were participating in battles across the entire Kursk region near the border with Ukraine, Lee said, citing the NIS.
This means that about a quarter of North Korean soldiers deployed for the war have already been counted among casualties, based on the NIS estimates.
According to Lee, the NIS analysis of combat footage found that North Korean troops appeared to lack understanding of modern warfare, such as drone usage, and they were mainly being used by the Russian side for warfare tactics likely to yield massive casualties.
The NIS said the two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukrainian authorities were members of the General Reconnaissance Bureau, an intelligence organ of North Korea’s Army. The two were among some 2,500 others from the GRB who were sent to the war.
“The NIS and its Ukrainian counterpart believe the two belong to the GRB. They were told by North Korean authorities that they would be ‘treated as heroes’ for their role in the war, without a promise of pay,” Lee said.
Regarding the possible repatriation of the captured North Korean soldiers to South Korea, the NIS said it was working with Ukrainian authorities for their return to South Korea or for them to stay in Ukraine, depending on their wishes. South Korea’s Constitution also guarantees the rights of North Koreans. They are accepted to stay in South Korea if they express the willingness to defect.
News of the Russian deployment has been spreading within North Korea, especially among the families of dispatched troops. There were signs that North Korean authorities have provided some compensation to the families, such as food and other necessities.
The NIS said that North Korea has also shuffled some personnel to formalize its hard-line stance against the upcoming second Donald Trump presidency in the US, while cementing ties with Russia.
In particular, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister Kim Yo-jong was believed to be playing the role of second-in-command, issuing statements toward the US and South Korea from time to time, albeit without a change in her official title.
Through the first half of this year, North Korea is anticipated to continue to focus on securing military and economic support in return for its troops dispatched to Russia, as the change in the US administration could herald an early end to the war in Ukraine, the NIS said.
The NIS thinks Trump will end the two wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East in a bid to minimize American foreign intervention, while increasing pressure on China. It was uncertain whether the expansion of US extended deterrence for South Korea under outgoing President Joe Biden, in cooperation with South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol, would continue under Trump.
The NIS believes Trump is likely to seek dialogue with the North Korean leader after taking office, as the incoming US president considers his summit with Kim as one of the signature achievements of his first term.
Meanwhile, in response to lawmakers asking whether the NIS had been collecting intelligence regarding Yoon’s surprise declaration of martial law last month, Cho, the director, replied the agency “does not have the capacity to carry out or engage in domestic intelligence gathering.”
Cho admitted that he was at the Cabinet meeting held just before Yoon announced live on TV he was imposing martial law, and that he asked Hong Jang-won, the previous deputy director of the NIS, to resign.
In a meeting with lawmakers last month, Hong claimed that he was snubbed by Cho when he briefed the director about the president’s orders to arrest politicians on the night of martial law.