January 21, 2025
SEOUL – The unprecedented political turmoil sparked by impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol entered a new phase Sunday, as he was formally arrested over his Dec. 3 botched imposition of martial law. This first-ever formal arrest of a sitting president came after a Seoul court’s decision to issue a warrant to detain him for an extended period.
Given the recent political developments involving Yoon, it is not a stretch to assume that more Korean people would support the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea rather than the arrested president’s People Power Party.
But things played out in the exactly opposite way in one poll last week. In a survey released by Gallup Korea on Friday, the ruling People Power Party marked support of 39 percent, outpacing the Democratic Party at 36 percent. This marks the first time in roughly five months that the ruling party has surpassed the main opposition party in Gallup Korea’s polling.
Compared to the poll conducted a month earlier, the People Power party saw a notable surge of 15 percentage points, while the Democratic Party fell 12 points.
The reversal of support ratings for the two major parties was not limited to the Gallup poll. The National Barometer Survey released Thursday by Embrain Public, Korea Research and others showed that the People Power Party’s approval rating reached 35 percent, edging out the Democratic Party at 33 percent.
The gap between the parties had been narrowing since December’s third week, with the liberal Democratic Party ahead before culminating in last week’s reversal in the two polls. In consideration of the overwhelming shock and outrage initiated by Yoon’s short-lived martial law order and the People Power Party’s support for Yoon’s decision, the recent upward shift in public support for the People Power Party and the downward shift for the Democratic Party may come off as puzzling to some observers.
Conventional wisdom would expect public sentiment to swing continually against the People Power Party, while taking an ongoing positive view toward the Democratic Party, which led the Assembly’s passage of the impeachment vote against Yoon. However, despite the arrest of Yoon by investigators led by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials, last week’s polls seem to show the Democratic Party has failed to capitalize on what should have been a clear moment of political advantage.
What has happened? Political pundits float the possibility of a renewed consolidation of conservative voters in connection with Yoon, even as he confronts consequences for his failed self-coup. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, downplayed the reversal in its support rating, arguing that conservative respondents more actively joined the latest surveys than those leaning moderate to liberal in a way that distorted the results.
The Democratic Party’s interpretation, however, does not sound persuasive. The pollsters include major research firms with credible records, and survey results in recent weeks consistently point to a relative decline in support for the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party has to ascertain what it has done wrong rather than blaming others. These polls suggest some degree of public discontent over the Democratic Party’s moves and what some could perceive as overreach.
In the eyes of some, the Democratic Party compromised on its own image by trying to undermine the position of acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, impeaching him in a time of political crisis. It also seems intent on attacking the current acting President Minister Choi Sang-mok.
The Democratic Party’s recent moves are interpreted by some critics, including conservative voters and media outlets, as a thinly veiled attempt to minimize legal risks facing party chief Rep. Lee Jae-myung and to hold a presidential election as soon as possible.
Some of the Democratic Party’s proposals, such as monitoring private KakaoTalk conversations, seem to have disappointed some moderates and younger voters in their 20s and 30s, who are now driving the People Power Party’s ascent in the polls. Aside from the ongoing probe into Yoon, the Democratic Party must not prioritize political squabbling over addressing the public’s concerns.