February 24, 2025
BANGKOK – “There is no separatism, no ideological terrorists, only petty criminals,” said then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra after the “Pi-Leng Camp Weapons Raid” on January 4, 2004, and the burning of 18 schools.
Thaksin was so furious that he reprimanded the military and soldiers for their lack of vigilance, saying, “If you have an entire battalion stationed there but still fail to be cautious, then you deserve to die.”
From 2004 to 2025: A Region Forever Changed
From January 2004 to December 2023, there were 2,296 violent incidents in the Deep South, resulting in 7,547 deaths and 14,028 injuries, according to data from the Southern Situation Monitoring Centre as of January 3, 2024.
Thaksin was the one who imposed special security laws in the region, which remain in effect. Martial law was enacted on January 5, 2004, followed by the Emergency Decree on July 20, 2004, granting the military authority to detain suspects for interrogation without a warrant for up to seven days, even without flagrant wrongdoing.
Reports indicate that many detainees were subjected to intimidation and torture in military camps.
After the initial seven days, police could extend detention for up to 30 more days under the Emergency Decree.
To manage security and development efforts in the region, the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre (SBPAC) and the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) Region 4 Forward Command were established. Nearly half a trillion baht has been allocated to address the ongoing unrest.
Krue Se and Tak Bai: Beginnings of Mass Violence under Thaksin’s Government
The violent suppression of protests under Thaksin’s administration marked the beginning of a crackdown-based approach to resolving conflict. The Krue Se Mosque incident in Pattani on April 28, 2004, ended with 108 fatalities, including 30 people killed inside the mosque. Most of the deceased were aged 15-20, armed only with machetes and daggers.
The Tak Bai Crackdown: A Tragedy of 85 Deaths
The Tak Bai incident, one of the deadliest crackdowns, resulted in more than 85 deaths, most of them caused by suffocation during transport.
Detainees were forced to lie face down, stacked on top of one another, in military trucks for three hours as they were transferred from Tak Bai district, Narathiwat, to Ingkhayutthaborihan Camp in Nong Chik district, Pattani. Many suffocated, while others suffered severe injuries, with some left permanently disabled.
As a 20-year statute of limitations on the Tak Bai incident neared its end, some victims and their families attempted to sue state officials. However, no defendants ever appeared in court, and the case officially expired on October 25, 2024.
When asked about the incident on the social-media app Clubhouse on February 22, 2021, while in exile, Thaksin responded:”I feel sorry for what happened. Most of it was under military control. I received reports. I feel sorry. I barely remember. Sorry.”
Peace Talks Initiated under His Sister, but Silence under His Daughter
Thaksin’s political network continuously attempted to address the unrest. The first formal peace talks were launched under the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s younger sister.
Thailand officially engaged in direct negotiations with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), with Malaysia acting as a facilitator. This led to the Ramadan Peace Initiative, an agreement to halt violence during the Muslim holy month, marking a significant step toward conflict resolution.
Even during Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s tenure as prime minister – spanning eight years through both a coup and elections – Thailand maintained a chief negotiator for peace talks in the Deep South. While violence did not entirely cease, the situation gradually improved with initiatives such as the establishment of “pilot safety zones” and a ceasefire during Ramadan. By the time of the 2023 elections, the JCPP (Joint Comprehensive Peace Plan) Roadmap for Peace was proposed.
When the Pheu Thai Party returned to power in 2023, prime minister Srettha Thavisin prioritised economic solutions, highlighting the halal industry as a potential driver for development. The first-ever civilian chief peace negotiator, Chatchai Bangchuad, led talks in February 2024.
However, under Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s administration, no official peace dialogue team has been appointed. Violence has intensified and become more frequent, leaving the public questioning how Paetongtarn plans to address Deep South insurgency, beyond extending the Emergency Decree for the 79th time in the region.
Thaksin Returns to Deep South after 17 Years – What’s Next for Peace?
Despite Thaksin’s current role as an ASEAN adviser, where he actively addresses Myanmar’s civil war, he has rarely spoken about resolving the southern insurgency in recent years. His recent visit to the region is therefore seen as a crucial moment for peace efforts, with hopes that he might revitalise stalled negotiations.
Reports suggest that Thaksin may revive the “66/23” model, a policy once used by Gen Prem Tinsulanonda with former Communist insurgents. However, academics and activists argue that this approach is outdated and fails to address the root causes of the conflict.
Many believe that genuine dialogue and politics leading the military principle that Thaksin himself endorsed at the Future of Patani/Southern Border Provinces forum in June 2022 remains the best path forward.