March 6, 2025
JAKARTA – As the world enters the 21st century’s first period of potentially prolonged political, economic and military turmoil, United States President Donald Trump is likely to go down in history as the leader who played a major role in provoking the man-made crisis, or even the third world war.
President Prabowo Subianto’s decision to revoke the sales ban on iPhone 16s late last month should be understood within this context.
The repercussions of lifting the ban will go beyond the government’s imagination, especially after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questioned the policy. Under Trump 2.0, the US has become a tyrant against its claim as a champion of democracy.
Indonesia prohibited the sales of Apple’s iPhone 16 after the US tech company demonstrated reluctance last October in meeting the mandatory 35 percent local component (TKDN) requirement. Now, the ban has been reversed without a credible explanation.
US jingoism was on full display at last week’s chaotic bilateral meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Oval Office, where Trump blamed his guest for starting the war in Ukraine, even though Russia clearly invaded the country in February 2022.
Trump also warned that Zelensky was “gambling with world war three” for refusing his plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
Indeed, Trump anticipated a third world war during his presidential campaign last year, saying that the US would emerge the winner of such a conflict, ignoring the country’s waning global influence.
At the same time, China’s star is rising and it is ready to challenge US hegemony in almost all fields, from the economy and military to technology.
Trump has never hidden his ambition to check China’s rise, but his China containment strategy is not going to work the way he expects.
He pretends to be unaware that he will never be able to defeat China alone without the cooperation of US allies and key strategic partners. He is rapidly losing their trust, however, as he continues to threaten and bully even the closest US allies, including NATO.
Trump is also forging good rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a bid to try and keep him from China. However, losing China is the last thing Putin wants, since Russia is heavily dependent on the Chinese economy.
Countries on this side of the globe, including ASEAN states, have little choice but to rely more on Beijing than Washington.
Prabowo feels he has strong chemistry with Trump, so he might believe the US will exempt Indonesia from its transactional, self-interested policies. A word of caution: Indonesia can be easy prey of Trump’s agitation if we are not well-prepared for the global uncertainty, which will persist as long as Trump remains in the White House.
In September, one month before taking office as Indonesia’s eighth president, the former army general warned of a possibility of a third global conflict if nations failed to exercise restraint amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
At the time, this newspaper quoted him emphasizing the significant challenges the world was facing, including potential nuclear warfare, which could impact Indonesia despite its noninvolvement. In various forums at home and abroad, Prabowo has repeatedly reaffirmed Indonesia’s long-standing policy of nonalignment amid the uncertainties inflicted upon the world due to the big power rivalries.
However, it is crucial to acknowledge that Indonesia’s traditional “free and active” foreign policy stance may not suffice to mitigate the pervasive global disorder. This is particularly salient in light of the contemporary geopolitical climate, which bears no resemblance to the conditions that led to the cataclysmic events of World War I and II.
President Prabowo needs a more strategic approach to Trump, including by refraining from being outspoken in groups that Washington deems anti-US, such as BRICS, and forging a solid team to face the US.
Like other countries, Indonesia should brace for the new global state of disorder.