March 18, 2025
TOKYO – The approval rating for the Cabinet of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has plummeted to near the “danger level” for running the government. The recently revealed distribution of gift certificates by Ishiba has fueled public distrust that had been already growing over his government’s handling of revisions to the budget for next fiscal year.
The plunge in approval rating has sent shock waves through the government and ruling parties, while the opposition parties are stepping up their offensive.
Weak party base
“We will humbly accept the results and work to restore trust,” LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama said Sunday, regarding the findings of the recent Yomiuri Shimbun survey.
Itsunori Onodera, chairperson of LDP’s Policy Research Council, said: “There is a considerable public backlash against the distribution of gift certificates. The prime minister has no choice but to explain the matter thoroughly and get on with his job.”
Ishiba’s handling of a review of the high-cost medical expense benefit system, which is intended to reduce the burden on patients when medical expenses become excessively high, has given the impression inside and outside the party that he lacks leadership. The gift certificate scandal, which came to light soon after, has dealt a further political blow to the Ishiba administration.
As Ishiba’s party base is weak, he has relied on his name recognition and popularity in regional areas to run his administration. He had previously projected an image of a clean politician who is unconnected to problems of politics and money.
“The prime minister’s support base has crumbled, and this is a very serious situation,” a senior government official said.
A former cabinet member of the LDP expressed concern over the sharp increase in the disapproval rating for Ishiba’s Cabinet. “[The disapproval rate of 58%] being nearly double [the approval rate of 31%] is alarming. The approval rate is likely to continue to fall gradually,” the former Cabinet member said.
Counteroffensive seen difficult
Looking back at past cabinets, there have been many cases in which administrations came to a standstill when their approval ratings fell below 30%. The approval rating for the Cabinet of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during its final months failed to rise back above 30%, forcing Kishida to abandon his bid for reelection in the LDP presidential race in September 2024.
The ruling and opposition parties have agreed to reach a conclusion on a review of corporate and group donations by the end this month. However, the new scandal is sure to create more headwinds for the LDP, which has called for maintaining such donations.
“The government will do its utmost to realize its policy measures,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture. Yet, it remains to be seen whether the government can launch a counteroffensive through such measures.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump intends to implement reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners from April 2. If Japan becomes subject to the new tariffs, frustration toward the Ishiba administration could intensify.
Opposition ready to pounce
The opposition parties are poised to hold Ishiba more accountable.
“It has become clear that the people are not satisfied,” said Seiji Maehara, coleader of the Japan Innovation Party, on Sunday. “We will keep watching to see whether he will further fulfill his responsibility and explain himself.”
A senior LDP lawmaker said, “Anything can happen after the passage of the budget for next fiscal year.” Voices calling for Ishiba’s resignation within the LDP may build before the House of Councillors election in summer.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is trying to determine the right timing for submitting a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet, but some within the party believe that it is wise to “keep criticizing it persistently rather than toppling it right away, as it will be easier to fight the upper house election with a lame-duck Ishiba Cabinet.”
“There are calls [for the prime minister] to step down, but I won’t request that so readily,” said CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda during a speech in Aomori on Sunday. “[The LDP] may want to change its leader and fight the upper house election campaign with a fresh image, but that is not the way it should go.”