April 14, 2025
PETALING JAYA – IS the Ayer Kuning by-election a crucial test to determine whether Pakatan Harapan voters still believe in the coalition’s “marriage” with Umno? Is it a testing ground to determine whether the Malays in Perak remain loyal to Umno?
Yesterday, nominations closed, and three candidates are vying to be the assemblyman of this state seat in Perak: Barisan Nasional’s Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir of Umno, Perikatan Nasional’s Abd Muhaimin Malek of PAS, and Parti Sosialis Malaysia’s (PSM) KS Bawani.
The by-election was triggered following the passing of Umno incumbent Ishsam Shahruddin, 58, from a heart attack on Feb 25.
Ayer Kuning is a semi-rural seat where 56% of the voters are Malays, 22% Chinese, 14% Indians, and 8% Orang Asli. It is what I call the perfect Pakatan and Umno seat – enough non-Malays who are traditional Pakatan supporters and Malays who are Umno loyalists for Pakatan or Umno to win.
I contacted Dr Mazlan Ali, a political analyst who has consistently forecasted by-elections result correctly, to get his insights on Ayer Kuning.
Mazlan believes that Umno will keep the seat it has won since its establishment in 1986. Even when the party was at its weakest during the 15th General Election (GE15) in 2022, it won Ayer Kuning with 9,088 votes. This was 2,213 more than Amanah of Pakatan’s 6,875 votes; Perikatan’s PAS won 6,812 votes, PSM 586, and Gerakan Tanah Air’s Pejuang won 105.
“Now that Umno has combined with Pakatan, and Pakatan is supporting Umno, it will win the seat comfortably,” he said.
The political analyst noted that the seat’s demography was similar to Mahkota’s in Johor, where a by-election was held on Sept 28, 2024. The voter breakdown there is roughly 54% Malays, 35% Chinese, and 8% Indians – the perfect seat for the Pakatan-Umno combination to win.
“That is why Umno won Mahkota with a 20k plus majority. If the trend continues, Umno will win Ayer Kuning with a big majority too,” he said, predicting that the party will win with about a 7,000-vote majority depending on voter turnout.
The Chinese voters in the by-elections in Mahkota and Pelangai (in Pahang, which was held on Aug 17, 2023) had no problem voting for Umno post-GE15, when Pakatan and arch rival Umno had combined to form a unity Federal government.
“Without the Chinese votes, Umno would not have won Pelangai. The result showed that the Chinese voters had no problem voting for Umno,” Mazlan said.
Mazlan projected that 80% of the Chinese votes in Ayer Kuning will go to Umno.
“But before GE15, the Chinese hated Umno. Why would they want to keep alive a party that they wanted dead?” I asked the analyst.
“The Chinese are strategic. Take the Pelangai by-election, for example. They fully supported Umno because by supporting it, they were supporting Pakatan. They see Umno as helping to form the unity government,” he said.
“It is not that the Chinese like Umno, but they see the party as a strategic partner that keeps Pakatan in government.”
Mazlan pointed out that the Chinese believe that they should support the Madani government.
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan only has 81 MPs, Mazlan said, so if Umno doesn’t support Pakatan, the government could fall, and Perikatan, which the Chinese don’t think can take care of them, will be in power.
“But isn’t it ironic that the Chinese wanted to kill off Umno, but now it is them who are helping to keep Umno alive?” I asked.
“It is strategic. After the Pelangai by-election, Chinese support for the government has increased except in the Sungai Bakap by-election held on July 6 in 2024,” Mazlan said.
“At that time, the Chinese were angry with the Federal government’s decision on diesel subsidy rationalisation and didn’t support the PKR candidate,” he said, referring to how PAS retained the seat it had won in the Penang state elections in 2023.
As for Malay voters, Mazlan predicts that the community’s support for the PAS candidate will increase.
He explained that in GE15, Umno had not yet combined with Pakatan so “there is a possibility that 15% to 20% of Umno votes will now go to Perikatan’s PAS”, he said.
“But the Malay swing to Perikatan will not be enough to tip the balance.”
Mazlan projects that 60% of Indian voters will support Umno, 15% PAS, and the rest will not go out to vote.
The reason Indians will support Umno, according to the political analyst, is that they have no other choice: “Perak and the Federal level are under the unity government. The Indians are a minority, and they can’t be the ‘pecatur’ [determiner] of politics; they have to be with the ruling coalition, which can guarantee Indian rights,” he said.
“They are like the Malays; they don’t dare to ubah [change]. Whereas the Chinese are strategic, they can turn 180°,” he said.
“Why can’t PSM get the protest votes?” I asked.
“It is about old ideology – socialism – which is not suitable for now. But if it is a socialist democracy like DAP, it is relevant,” he said.
“I am confident that PSM will lose its deposit.”
On whether Muda will capture the young vote – and the aunties’ votes – as its founder, Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, is currently uber popular on social media because of his romance with singer and actress Bella Astillah, Mazlan did not think so.
“The young Malay votes will go to PAS.
“Syed Saddiq is young but secular. Conservative Malays are not attracted to liberal politicians. They see him as bebas [liberal-minded],” he said.
It sounds like the Ayer Kuning by-election on April 26 will likely be a victory for the status quo, which in post-GE15 means non-Malay voters accepting the new political norm of Pakatan and Umno in a marriage of convenience.