September 17, 2025
TOKYO – A survey conducted nationwide by The Yomiuri Shimbun found that expectations were highest for former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi and Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi to be the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party.
The situation may change depending on the election debates, so each camp is working on a strategy to leverage their candidate’s unique strengths.
“The poll showed a clear lead for Ms. Takaichi and Mr. Koizumi. They’ve moved in front not just by a head, but by an entire body,” a close aide to Takaichi said with satisfaction on Sunday.
In the first round of voting in the LDP presidential election in September last year, which had nine candidates, Takaichi placed first and Koizumi was third. It is agreed within the LDP that both are popular throughout the nation.
The survey results were “exactly what was expected,” a senior LDP official said, expressing a sentiment widely shared by many party members.
Despite the fact that Takaichi has not formally declared her candidacy yet, her support increased by five points from 24% in an August survey about who would be a suitable candidate for the next LDP president. Aiming to expand her support among conservative voters, Takaichi has not taken on any key posts since last year’s presidential election. Instead she has engaged in lecture tours and other activities in regional areas.
Some believe that her strategy of keeping a certain distance from the Cabinet of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has paid off. “She will likely compete with Koizumi, who is known for his youth and integrity,” the close aide to Takaichi said.
Koizumi became agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister in May. He has been strengthening his public profile from within the current administration — in stark contrast to Takaichi — by taking charge of rice policy, an issue that has drawn public attention amid soaring rice prices, and has appeared in the media daily.
Among just LDP supporters, Koizumi leads Takaichi by five points. “We’re in a good position. We want to present our well-thought-out policies and win outright,” a source close to Koizumi said.
Leading indicator
Public opinion is a vital “leading indicator” because the votes of rank-and-file party members and members of groups affiliated with the party account for half of the first-round ballots in the presidential election.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi have already announced their candidacies. They are intensifying their policy appeals in an effort to gain ground.
Motegi was the first to declare he would run and has been actively appearing in the media. His support has risen from 1% in August to 7% in the latest poll.
An LDP lawmaker who supports him believes “the effect of the initial burst is showing.”
Motegi has indicated his intent to make his case through economic policies, which are his area of expertise, to win more votes from lawmakers.
Hayashi has extensive experience from serving as foreign minister, minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, and minister of education. His campaign said he must emphasize his policymaking skills and expressed anticipation for the upcoming debates.
Meanwhile, Kobayashi is focusing on promoting his policies and personality through social media to boost his name recognition.
3 weeks left
With the presidential election and ballot-counting set for Oct. 4, the political landscape is expected to shift depending on how the debates unfold in the remaining three weeks.
Former digital minister Taro Kono topped a Yomiuri Shimbun survey just before the LDP presidential election in 2021 but lost momentum after proposing radical pension reforms. He was overtaken by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the first round of voting and defeated in the runoff.
In last year’s presidential election, Koizumi, who was competing for the top spot with Ishiba in pre-election surveys, stumbled during the debates. As a result, he fell behind both Takaichi and Ishiba in the member and supporter votes, and could not advance to the runoff.
When asked about his recent strong performance in the polls at a press conference on Tuesday, Koizumi’s expression turned serious. “I’ve experienced being put on a pedestal as a prelude to being crushed. I won’t get carried away by every result.”