September 22, 2025
TOKYO – The Liberal Democratic Party is feeling an increasing sense of crisis about the recent decline in the number of rank-and-file party members.
In the past year, the number of rank-and-file members has rapidly declined by more than 60,000, and it is possible that the number will fall below 1 million.
The LDP’s decision to hold its upcoming party presidential election with all rank-and-file members casting ballots nationwide is aimed at preventing them from discontinuing membership in the party.
The election campaign period will begin on Monday, with voting and counting to take place on Oct. 4
The number of rank-and-file LDP members has been on the decline after hitting a peak in 1991 at about 5.46 million. After the LDP lost the reins of government, the number in 2012 fell to about 730,000.
After the LDP regained control of the government, the number in 2016 recovered to over 1 million, but the figure has been decreasing over the past two years.
As of the end of 2024, the number stood at 1,028,662, down by 62,413 from that at the end of 2023.
The decrease was the largest since the LDP returned to power in 2012. It is believed that the decline is due to the negative impact over the party’s political funds scandal.
Some experts believe that some voters who had supported the LDP shifted to the Sanseito party or the Democratic Party for the People.
Because the upcoming party leadership election is being held before the end of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s term as LDP president, it was possible for the party to choose a simplified procedure for the election in which only Diet members and representatives of the party’s prefectural chapters would be eligible to vote.
However, LDP executives decided to hold the leadership election using the “full-scale” method in which rank-and-file party members also cast ballots.
“By letting rank-and-file members take part in the party presidential election, we have to prevent the number of them from decreasing further,” said a senior LDP member about the situation.
The criteria for eligibility in the LDP presidential election is that voters are Japanese nationals age 20 or older and they have paid party membership fees for two years in 2023 and 2024. The annual membership fee for ordinary rank-and-file members is ¥4,000.
In last year’s party presidential election, those age 18 and 19 and those who had paid membership fees for only the preceding one year were included as eligible voters as a special measure.
However, the special criteria are not being applied for the upcoming election because there is not enough time to do the necessary administrative work.
Under the full-scale method, the number of ballots cast by rank-and-file members is converted into the same total number of votes as those cast by Diet members.
Therefore, candidates and their aides in campaign offices have been enhancing efforts to gain support from local assembly members of the party to obtain as many ballots as possible of the rank-and-file members.
As candidates seen to be suitable for the next LDP president in public opinion surveys, Sanae Takaichi, a former minister in charge of economic security, and Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi show notably high support rates.
“In the race to obtain support from rank-and-file members, the two with high name recognition will be the main competitors,” said a veteran LDP member.