May 7, 2026
THIMPHU – The oft-repeated phrase that “children are the future” has taken on new urgency in Bhutan, particularly in the context of the sustained fall in birth rates, which is emerging as one of the most consequential economic challenges facing the country today.
Once concerned about population growth, Bhutan now faces the opposite dilemma: too few births to sustain long-term development. The shift marks a stark demographic turning point, raising concerns over labour shortages, rising dependency, and slower economic growth.
For a small developing nation, the stakes are particularly high. Experts warn that the continuing decline in birth rates has far-reaching economic consequences that challenge the country’s ability to sustain a homegrown workforce for infrastructure and security.
The biggest problem, economists say, is the shrinking working-age population. This leads to slower economic growth, more elderly people depending on support, and long-term financial pressure, which could harm Bhutan’s future development.
A senior economist said that the fertility rate is barely at the replacement level. “This will lead to a higher dependency rate as the population ages, increased pressure on the health system, and a reduced critical mass for domestic consumption and factors of production,” he warned.
Unlike developed nations that became wealthy before their populations aged, developing nations face the risk of “getting old before they get rich”. This may cause them to miss the demographic dividend, which is when a large working-age population drives economic growth, and instead experience economic strain or what economists describe as “demographic drag”.
Today’s demographic transition is occurring earlier and faster in Bhutan, with potential implications for population health and a rising age-related disease burden. “Birth rates will continue to decline, and the number of elderly people will increase, which will ultimately become a burden on the nation,” said a senior medical doctor.
Studies show that more pressing than long-term population concerns are the economic impacts of changing population structure. When fertility declines, large cohorts retire while smaller ones enter the labour force, reducing the working-age population, labour supply, and overall economic productivity.
The study “Population at Crossroads” by a team of academics at James Cook University in Brisbane, Australia, in 2025 finds that Bhutan’s demographic transition is creating major economic pressures. It shows that a shrinking and ageing population is weakening the labour force, reducing productivity, and slowing long-term growth as fertility rates fall sharply.
National birth crisis
The scale of change is striking. Bhutan’s fertility has fallen from about 6.67–6.85 births per woman in 1950 to around 1.4–1.8 today, well below the 2.1 needed to stabilise a population. The government has recently labelled the situation a national crisis.
Bhutan recorded 9,914 births in 2024, a 0.442 percent decrease from 9,958 in 2023, two consecutive years of decline. Fertility has dropped nearly fourfold since 1950, about 79 percent, from 6.85 to 1.44 births per woman in 2025, including a 0.69 percent decrease from 1.45 in 2024.
The census data from the Ministry of Home Affairs show a 62.9 percent decline in births over 35 years, from 15,580 in 1990 to 14,461 in 2000 and 12,702 in 2010. The decline continued into 2020, with births falling to 10,225, before plunging to 5,784 in 2025. If the trend continues, births could fall to around 2,000 by 2028.
Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, during the recent mid-term review for the health ministry, called for cross-sectoral efforts to enhance birth rates, describing the decline as a national crisis. “It is the responsibility of all of us. Even wartime countries would not suffer such a level of population decline. That is not sustainable,” Lyonchhen said.
The decline has accelerated over the past five years, falling by nearly 43.5 percent from 2020 to 2025, likely linked to large-scale youth emigration to countries such as Australia, Canada, the United States, and the Middle East in search of better career opportunities.
This trend is evident in workforce data. Between 2023 and 2025, the productive age group of civil servants aged 27 to 35 accounted for the highest number of voluntary resignations, which may have contributed to a lower birth rate. For instance, there are over 37,000 Bhutanese in Australia, but only 307 children were born in a single year.
A World Bank report on “Migration Dynamics in Bhutan” estimates that more than 65,000 Bhutanese, about 9 percent of the population, are living or working abroad, including 53 percent of the country’s young, highly skilled professionals, many of them civil servants.
Lyonchhen urged more workplace dialogue on migration to address civil servant resignations, calling for better delegation and team building. “Very few of us, particularly in leadership positions, are actually trying to convince our staff to stay. We should let them hear our concerns before they leave,” he added.
According to the UN World Population Prospects 2024, Bhutan’s birth rate has fallen by about 75 percent over the past 75 years, with a steady decline from a high plateau in the 1950s–1960s. The decline accelerated from the late 1960s onward, reaching its lowest level in 2025.
The rate has dropped nearly fourfold, from 49.20 per 1,000 people in 1950 to an estimated 12.35 per 1,000 in mid-2025, a 1.43 percent decline from 2024. While still declining, the pace has slowed over the past five years compared with the rapid drops of the 1990s and early 2000s.
Shifting population structure
In the 1960s and 1970s, people worried about overpopulation, which they feared would outpace food, infrastructure, and resources. Today, in many countries, the concern has shifted to falling birth rates and ageing populations.
Bhutan’s changing population reflects a classic demographic transition driven by effective family planning. The slogan “small family, happy family”, introduced in 1974 following a resolution by the 34th National Assembly, promoted sustainable development until 2000, after which policy shifted toward a rights-based approach focusing on birth spacing and individual choice.
This transition is also linked to broader development goals. The UN Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve health, education, and gender equality, recognising that longer life expectancy may drive short-term population growth, while empowerment and development help stabilise fertility over time.
Bhutan’s life expectancy at birth reached 73.5 years in mid-2025, up from 73.3 years in 2024, and has increased for 25 consecutive years. It has more than doubled since 1950, when it stood at 35.3 years – the highest level ever recorded for the country.
Bhutan is part of a wider global shift. Nearly all high-income countries are now below replacement fertility, with South Korea recording the world’s lowest rate at 0.80 in 2025. Many lower-income countries are also reaching or approaching similar levels. Global fertility has fallen to historic lows, with regions such as East Asia, Europe, and Russia projected to shrink, while countries including the United States, Canada, and China are also experiencing declining trends.
According to UN projections, the global population is expected to peak in the 2080s before entering sustained decline. Until then, growth will continue mainly due to demographic momentum from earlier high-fertility generations.
In Bhutan, the population increased from 634,982 in 2005 to 735,553 in 2017, according to the Population and Housing Census of Bhutan. The population is projected to reach 883,866 by 2047, which indicates steady growth alongside ongoing demographic shifts.
However, National Statistics Bureau data shows the dependency ratio is becoming increasingly unsustainable as Bhutan moves toward an ageing society by 2027, with nearly one in five people expected to be aged 60 or older by 2047. A shrinking inflow of young workers is likely to create labour shortages, slow economic growth, and increase pressure on families and social systems.
While declining population growth may reduce military strength and global influence, as seen historically in cases such as France after the Franco-Prussian War, some studies also suggest potential benefits, including lower spending on childcare and housing and greater investment in education, technology, and productivity.
Delayed family formation
A growing trend shows more people remaining single or delaying long-term relationships and marriage. In Bhutan, the mean age of childbearing reached 30.10 years in 2025, slightly higher than 30.00 years in 2024, and has steadily increased over time from a low of 28.30 years in 2008.
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Data from the UN World Population Prospects shows a clear shift towards later motherhood in Bhutan, with births among women aged 35–39 rising from 1,142 in 2016 to 1,357 in 2023. Births among women aged 20–24 have fallen sharply by nearly 30 per cent, declining from 2,861 in 2016 to 1,990 in 2023.
Experts link this trend to education and career priorities, rising living costs, and housing inflation that make it harder to start families. The “double-income trap”, where both parents must work, also delays childbearing, creating a demographic paradox where social progress contributes to slower population growth and growing concern.
Economists and medical doctors say the decline in birth rates is due to 100 percent literacy, career-oriented younger generations, and the challenges of raising children when both parents are working, while a lack of domestic help is also among the main reasons.
For 31-year-old Yeshi Choden, marriage is not an option for now. “I need to enjoy life first. I don’t want children because it might affect my routine, and I like living without pressure. I may not even choose to marry, as everything is becoming more expensive,” she added.
Financial constraints also prevent many individuals from moving out independently, leading them to stay with their parents into adulthood. Also, more people are now living alone compared to previous generations.
“I don’t want to suffer by bringing in new lives. You give birth, but who will babysit, who will support my career, who will drop off and pick up the kids? I can’t afford to send them to private colleges. Forget clothes, even daycare is extremely expensive,” said Jigme, an employee in Thimphu.
Sonam Lhaden, a civil servant in her mid-20s, plans to marry only when she is financially, physically, and mentally ready. “I need to focus on my career and personal growth first. It takes time,” she said.
For officegoers, living separately from their partners often delays family planning. “It feels like raising a child as a single parent if visits aren’t frequent. Problems usually arise when contact becomes irregular, and you start to lose sight of the future,” Sonam Lhaden said.
Financial stress is also limiting the time and energy people can dedicate to building and maintaining relationships. More Bhutanese are marrying foreigners and some are giving up citizenship due to the lack of dual nationality, while many also gain permanent residency abroad, including 2,293 in Australia by June 2023.
Concerns about commitment and long-term relationships are contributing to this shift. Divorce in Bhutan increased from 2.1 percent in 2017 to 3.4 percent in 2022, with more women affected and higher rates among the less educated, according to the Bhutan Living Standards Survey 2022. Recent trends are also influenced by migration-related marriages and changing youth attitudes.
With more than 60 percent of Bhutan’s population below 25 years, policymakers say it is important that family planning services address adolescent sexual behaviour and teenage pregnancy to reduce negative impacts on the health of young women.
Bhutan has seen a sustained decline in adolescent pregnancies, with births among 15 to 19-year-olds falling from 481 in 2016 to 312 in 2023, while births in the 10–14 year age group have become almost negligible. Even the peak childbearing group, aged 25–29, has recorded a decline, with births decreasing from 3,758 in 2016 to 3,071 in 2023.
Radical policy rethink
Against this backdrop, the question is how policymakers can address declining fertility. Policies such as encouraging higher birth rates, increasing immigration, and boosting labour force participation are often discussed, but they are easier said than done.
Economically, population change is not always negative, but it becomes a concern when it affects stability and cultural continuity. Birth rates are falling due to deeper social and economic factors that require long-term structural solutions, not quick fixes.
“I don’t see any possibility of boosting the birth rate unless we have a major policy shift fully focused on increasing the birth rate, similar to efforts to increase gross domestic product,” said a medical doctor.
Economists recommend that policymakers introduce family-friendly measures to encourage higher fertility, though these may create economic pressures. These could include tax incentives for larger families, flexible parental leave, affordable childcare, and infertility treatment to support work–family balance.
The government is planning to establish full in-vitro fertilization (IVF) services at the Mother and Child Hospital by the financial year 2026–2027, while intrauterine insemination (IUI) services are already available at Jigme Dorji Wangchuck National Referral Hospital (JDWNRH) and may be expanded to other districts. At present, couples needing IVF are referred abroad, and infertility is becoming an increasing emotional and social concern in Bhutan.
Maternal and child health services are being strengthened through specialised neonatal care, growth monitoring, and financial support for mothers under the Accelerating Maternal and Child Health Programme, which provides cash assistance during early childhood.
Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa failed to deliver its key election pledge to support rural mothers by paying them a daily wage for six months to compensate for their loss of income while resting and caring for their newborns. The People’s Democratic Party government continues to work on pro-natalist policies such as a third-child cash incentive programme and child tax credits, though these measures have not yet been implemented.
The government is also working on a Sustainable Population Strategy, expected this financial year, which will include measures on youth retention, childcare support, gender-responsive policies, social protection, and human capital development.
Declining birth rates are hitting rural areas hardest, leading to school closures. Primary school enrollment has fallen sharply, with at least 42 schools closed in the past five years. Some schools now have as few as eight or nine students, and nearly half of private high schools are reportedly at risk of closing.
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The Ministry of Education and Skills Development is consolidating low-enrollment schools to maintain education standards.
Research on Bhutan’s demographic shift suggests that maintaining its unique development philosophy depends on moving from an ethical framework to a more data-driven governance approach that reflects real-time population changes.
Researchers call for integrated rural–urban planning and policies that align youth aspirations with domestic opportunities. “Traditional family support systems are weakening as children migrate, leaving many elderly residents ageing without care or feeling isolated,” said a researcher.
Youth migration, especially to Australia, along with a 20.6 percent youth unemployment rate as of the fourth quarter of 2025, is shrinking Bhutan’s workforce and worsening the already declining fertility trend, which strengthens the case for pro-natalist policies to prevent broader population loss.
Countries use different policies to boost birth rates. France, Hungary, Russia, South Korea, and China offer financial, housing, and family support. Sweden and Germany provide paid parental leave. Singapore, Japan, Denmark, Norway, and Italy focus on childcare and work–life balance. Canada and Australia use skilled immigration to address population decline.