February 3, 2025
JAKARTA – President Prabowo Subianto kicked off his term with promises to make Indonesia less dependent on fuel and food imports by ramping up renewable energy supply and building massive agricultural estates, sparking hope but also skepticism as predecessors have tried the same, and failed.
One hundred days into his presidency, Prabowo’s ambitious vows of energy and food security have yet to materialize in actionable, short-term rules, with the administration’s stance on the energy transition and agricultural self-sufficiency described as lacking clear direction.
At the last Group of Twenty (G20) meeting, Prabowo outlined an ambitious plan to phase out all coal and fossil-fuel power plants within 15 years and to develop over 75 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity, but experts say that plan lacks details.
“Specifically, [we question] how to achieve the target of 23 percent renewables in the energy mix in 2025 and achieve 100 percent renewable energy in the next 10 years,” Fabby Tumiwa, executive director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), said in a statement on Jan. 22.
So far, the government has been focusing on long-term targets, pushing for state-owned electricity company PLN’s latest Electricity Procurement Business Plan (RUPTL), for instance, to be dominated by renewables.
“The government must prepare more strategic planning, like expediting the establishment of 9 GW of renewable energy capacity this year,” Fabby said.
Investors eagerly await the release of the new RUPTL, which was meant to be published last year under then-president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s leadership but has yet to materialize.
Fabby urged the government to immediately turn its commitment into actionable regulations and integrate them into various energy policies.
“The [National Electricity Master Plan (RUKN)], for example, still maintains the net-zero 2060 target instead of 2050 and peak emissions in 2035 instead of 2030, which is inconsistent with what the President has said. It also still contains plans to build coal-fired power plants until 2035.”
Read also: Past failures haunt govt’s new energy transition plans
The administration has taken some concrete steps toward achieving energy self-sufficiency: It launched the mandatory B40 program earlier this month and formed a task force for the acceleration of downstream industries and energy resilience.
It has also opted to boost domestic fuel oil production by redirecting a share of crude oil intended for export to processing into fuel at domestic refineries.
“Other [pending] decisions include the issuance of revised government regulations on national energy policies [KEN],” Ahmad Rahma Wardhana, a researcher at Gadjah Mada University’s (UGM) Center of Energy Studies, told The Jakarta Post on Jan. 22.
He expressed optimism that the new gross-split rule introduced by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry would increase investors’ appetite in Indonesia’s oil and gas industry.
However, Ahmad took issue with the government’s plan to convert 20 million hectares of forest land across Indonesia into agricultural land to produce food, energy and water for the country’s self-sufficiency efforts.
Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni said the Agriculture Ministry and the energy ministry would make use of the land, including by establishing several small food barns at large food estate projects.
“Extensification through land conversion is not the only solution, because there are other options, including increasing bioenergy productivity as well as utilizing waste from [agriculture and industries] as energy sources,” he said.
Read also: Massive costs, reforms await Prabowo full coal phase out plan
More food estates
The Agriculture Ministry plans to expand agricultural land by around 3 million hectares in the next four years by adding 750,000 ha annually.
Over the same period, the ministry also aims to improve 61 dams and irrigation systems for 3 million ha of land.
Indonesian Political Economy Association (AEPI) agriculture expert Khudori agreed that Indonesia needs more agricultural land considering the growing population but said that should not be done by clearing forests, especially primary forests.
“Many of the government’s food estate programs in Central Kalimantan, Merauke, North Sumatra, Ketapang, etc. are abandoned,” he told the Post on Jan. 23, suggesting that the government ensure these abandoned food estates operate sustainably before opening up any new agricultural land by clearing forest areas.
“Why did the food estate programs fail [in the past]?” Khudori asked. “Because they were not planned and carried out properly.”
He added that Prabowo was overlooking farmers’ welfare in his food sufficiency agenda.
“What is being pursued now, and since several years ago, is only ramping up production. […] But what about the farmers? Will they prosper when production increases? There is no guarantee.”
Prabowo, a retired general who has underlined his administration’s commitment to stop importing rice, corn and salt by the end of 2025, sees food and energy self-sufficiency as a basis for creating jobs, saving foreign exchange and underpinning national independence.
Eliza Mardian, a researcher at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE), said for some commodities, imports could be stopped this year.
She expected that there will be no need to import rice this year, arguing that stocks at the beginning of this year were “quite large”, at around 7.5 million tonnes.
“It is possible that Indonesia will not need to import rice this year, as the climate returns to normal and import stocks [are adequate],” she told the Post on Jan. 22.
But whether the government will succeed in doing the same the following year depends on its strategic policies, Eliza explained.
For corn, Indonesia must be diligent in acquiring the data needed for decision-making, she added with reference to corn import restrictions in 2016.
“At the time, [corn] imports had decreased by 2.17 million tonnes, but simultaneously, wheat imports increased by 3 million tonnes to replace feed corn,” Eliza said, stressing that achieving the government’s ambitious goals required serious efforts and targeted strategies addressing the root causes.
Read also: Prabowo wants more palm oil plantations, says not to fear deforestation
More palm oil plantations
Prabowo in his first 100 days in office prompted criticism for suggesting that Indonesia develop more palm oil plantations and ignore foreign concerns about deforestation.
Critics point to scientific evidence showing that Indonesian palm oil plantations have contributed to deforestation, biodiversity loss and carbon emissions.
Iola Abas, the national coordinator of environmental group Pantau Gambut, said allocating 20 million ha of land for oil palm could spell ecological disaster.
“Oil palm monoculture causes deforestation, hydrological damage, large emissions, floods and droughts,” Abas said, adding that 2023 data from the NGO showed that some of the 3.3 million ha earmarked for clearing are in protected areas.