November 18, 2025
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM – In the wake of the stunning defeat of the Congress in the Bihar elections, a national narrative portraying the grand old party as a diminishing force is being disseminated across the country. This narrative could adversely affect the party’s prospects in Kerala.
Political analysts suggest that the national narrative portraying the Congress as a spent force could negatively affect its prospects in Kerala by influencing voter perception and behaviour, particularly among its traditional supporters. A group of traditional Congress voters who have supported the party for decades, may reconsider their stance in the changed situation and view the CPM as an alternative to the BJP, others may switch over to the BJP.
The perception of the Congress’s national decline can affect the morale of party workers and allies, and potentially give momentum to the BJP’s state unit, as seen after recent election results in other states like Bihar. Elections are about perceptions. The perception that the Congress is a diminishing force in the country might lower voter enthusiasm and, consequently, voter turnout among its supporters in Kerala.
The national narrative might cause some fluctuation in the voting preferences of minority communities, particularly among Christians, potentially pushing a section of Christian voters toward other stable alternatives like the LDF or BJP. The Congress’ setback might influence Kerala’s middle class, which holds significant sway in shaping public opinion. Some of them may shift their voting preferences either to the LDF or BJP.
The national narrative has amplified internal criticism and rifts within the state unit, with leaders like Shashi Tharoor calling for a positive narrative and a focus on the future, while other state leaders have dismissed such observations.
The constituent parties of the Congress-led UDF have expressed their apprehension that the Bihar outcome could influence the political climate in Kerala. They urged the Congress leadership to undertake a thorough introspection. Several UDF leaders said the Bihar results reflected a failure to effectively address people’s issues during the campaign and stressed that a clear course correction is essential ahead of the upcoming crucial assembly polls, including Kerala. Most of them have endorsed the sentiment expressed by Sashi Tharoor about the Bihar setback. Tharoor had said that in view of the setback in Bihar, the Congress has the responsibility to study it in detail.
The BJP leaders in Kerala hope the Bihar results, particularly the strong support from women voters for the NDA, will influence political attitudes in Kerala, including among minority communities. The debacle is already echoing through the campaigns for Kerala’s local body elections, scheduled for December 2025. The saffron party is highlighting its Bihar success to gain an edge, while the LDF and UDF are attempting to counter this narrative.
The BJP is also expecting a Hindu vote consolidation in its favour in southern districts in the backdrop of the arrest of former Travancore Devaswom Board (TDB) president N Vasu and charges against CPM leaders, including ex-TDB president A Padmakumar in the Sabarimala gold loot case.
The Kerala voters have shown a tendency to vote differently in Lok Sabha and state Assembly elections, often preferring the Congress-led UDF in the Lok Sabha elections and the LDF in state polls. However, some analysts say that a consistent national narrative of portraying the Congress a diminishing force poses a significant risk to the party’s future performance even in a state where it has historically been strong
The national narrative of Congress being a “diminishing force” presents a challenge to the Congress in the state. In this situation, Congress needs effective leadership and a compelling counter-narrative tailored to the specific political landscape of the state to retain its traditional support base.