July 10, 2025
KUALA LUMPUR – At the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre, Asean foreign ministers convened for the pomp and circumstance of the annual gathering with the usual group photos, coordinated movements and calls for solidarity.
But in 2025, the stakes are unmistakably higher. The region is under pressure from rising geopolitical strain, mounting internal political turbulence and now, perhaps most notably, a return of tariff diplomacy.
United States President Donald Trump’s second-term trade policy looms large, with Asean economies squarely in the crosshairs. On July 8, just a day before the meetings,
Mr Trump issued letters detailing revised tariff rates for several Asean countries.
Malaysia and Indonesia, both still negotiating for reductions, were assigned reciprocal rates of 25 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively. Thailand was told to expect 36 per cent, while Laos and Myanmar face 40 per cent each. Cambodia’s rate was lowered to 36 per cent from 49 per cent.
The Trump administration has said the tariffs are about levelling the playing field. But for a region long anchored in multilateralism as a safeguard against great-power coercion, the move is not merely a trade policy, it is also a test of Asean’s economic resilience and diplomatic unity.
Malaysia, as Asean chair in 2025, has been trying to get ahead of that challenge. At the opening of the meetings on July 9, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim made a pointed reference to how trade tools have become entangled with geopolitics.
“Tariffs, export restrictions and investment barriers have now become the sharpened instruments of geopolitical rivalry,” said Datuk Seri Anwar. He warned that this was “no passing storm, it is the new weather of our time”.
Asean must respond with clarity and conviction, he stressed, calling for stronger alignment between foreign and economic policy to better withstand external pressure.
Without naming names, he also cautioned against unilateralism and stressed the importance of shared purpose. “We are a region that charts its own course deliberately, coherently and with purpose. Asean will not be spoken for in absentia,” said Mr Anwar.
Behind the scenes, however, some see the line between unity and fragility blurring.
Unity at stake
Vietnam’s trade deal with the US, announced on July 2,
has raised eyebrows across the region. While details remain scarce, the agreement spares Hanoi from a steep 46 per cent tariff, setting a precedent that could shape how others approach their own negotiations.
Some see the move as a pragmatic response to economic pressure, but to others, it signals a potential break from Asean’s collective approach.
The US has said its tariffs are based on bilateral trade balances, and while Asean has agreed to not take any retaliatory measures, there has never been a formal decision to negotiate as a group.
Vietnam’s deal, therefore, does not breach any joint position, but it creates a benchmark others may feel compelled to follow, even if they lack similar trade leverage. While unity in negotiations might be an ideal, it is not a practical reality, given the economic diversity of the 10 Asean members.
Still, some diplomats worry that if several states rush to strike individual deals, the perception of Asean solidarity could be weakened.
Observers worry that such carve-outs could weaken Asean’s longstanding commitment to consensus and coordinated action. With most members pursuing bilateral negotiations, Vietnam’s agreement risks becoming a reference point that divides members into those who secure favourable terms and those left behind.
That concern may just enter the official record. In a draft joint statement seen by The Straits Times, Asean ministers are set to express concern over the “unilateral actions relating to tariffs” that are “counterproductive” and risk “exacerbating global economic fragmentation”.
The language marks one of the grouping’s strongest responses yet to the growing pressure since the Trump administration first floated the tariff policy earlier in 2025. The foreign ministers are expected to raise these concerns with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Asean Post-Ministerial Conference with the US on July 10.
The tariff issue is not just about economics. It cuts to the heart of what Asean stands for: A grouping built on consensus, inclusion and open engagement with the world. Mr Anwar called for the group to “move in concert in facing challenges”, adding that its “cohesion must not end at declarations”. The alternative, he implied, is fragmentation.
But unity abroad will be hard to sustain if Asean cannot address the divisions within. Although originally established in 1967 to promote economic cooperation among its founding members, the group has expanded over the decades, and expectations of what it should achieve have grown alongside its integration.
The South China Sea remains a point of tension, with an increasing number of run-ins between Chinese and Philippine vessels in recent years. As for Myanmar, Asean’s Five-Point Consensus has delivered few results amid ongoing violence and political deadlock.
Few expect a dramatic departure from Asean’s usual script. Speeches will stay optimistic, and the traditional “Asean handshake” photos will continue, even amid simmering tensions.
But there is also a growing recognition that the old playbook may no longer be enough. In a video message delivered on July 5, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong urged the grouping to be bolder. He said Asean must become a more seamless and competitive single market if it wants to stay relevant in a changing global economy.
PM Wong was not in Kuala Lumpur, but his remarks have echoed through the corridors. One diplomat described the current mood as shifting from preservation to reinvention.
Another pointed to how the grouping is increasingly looking outward, not just inward. In the days ahead, the foreign ministers will meet key partners through the East Asia Summit and the Asean Regional Forum.
They will sit across the table from Australia, China, the European Union, Japan, Russia and the US. These meetings are not just routine engagements. They signal that Asean still sees value in its role as a regional convener, one that can draw in both allies and rivals for dialogue.
That sense of momentum is also reflected in Asean’s expansion plans. In October, the grouping is expected to formally admit Timor-Leste as its 11th member, following a decision in May to endorse the move in principle.
Though largely symbolic, it signals that progress, however slow, is still possible. Timor-Leste has been waiting to join the grouping since it formally applied for membership in 2011.
No one expects the meetings to deliver sweeping change. But with tariffs looming and ongoing trade negotiations already reshaping the playing field, Asean knows time is not on its side.
If the grouping wants to stay competitive in a more fragmented global economy, it will need to go beyond reactive measures and short-term fixes. That means lowering trade and investment barriers, improving regulatory coordination and making it easier for businesses to operate across the borders within Asean.
The path forward is not just about preserving unity but about building a more seamless, integrated region – a region that can shape its own outcomes rather than simply respond to them.