February 15, 2024
NEW DELHI – The elections results have come in Pakistan. The Independents supported by Imran Khan have got 92 seats in a house of 266 and are ahead of the Muslim League (Nawaz) led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (78 seats) and PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) led by former President Asif Ali Zardari (56 seats). It is a perspicacious fact that the elections were rigged ones.
Obviously post-poll horse trading is expected. It seems that Pakistan is headed for an alliance between PML(N), PPP, MQM (Muttahida Qaumi Movement) and other smaller parties. In fact it can be said that the establishment would support such an alliance. Other permutations and combinations are also possible depending on how the independents behave and the extent of their loyalty to Imran and his PTI. In the provinces the results are that in Sindh the PPP will form the government again as expected. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the independents backed by the PTI are expected to form the government in some manner once it is decided how they will act together in the absence of a party to unite them.
In Punjab, the picture is similar to, and as confused as, the one at the national level. Here too some kind of coalition will form the government. Perhaps the effort of the PML (N) will be to get as many PTI-backed independents as possible to its side. But the moral victory rests with PTI. The election was always going to be a vote for and against Imran Khan. The PML-N campaign did not address that or succeed in selling itself as a viable alternative for the future to the voters. It abandoned its ‘vote ko izzat do’ slogan which had resonated with millions across the country. That strategy blew up in the PML-N’s face. As he made his ‘victory speech’, Mr. Sharif looked frail and tired. It also marked a sad departure from the Charter of Democracy-transformed democrat who refused to block (despite the numerical possibility) PTI’s path to power in KP after it emerged as the single party in 2013. The poll proceedings were heavily manipulated in the PML-N’s favour. Voting day witnessed power shutdowns and disruption in the mobile phone network throughout the country, resulting in problems for the voters and party members.
There were allegations of ballot tampering and reports of violence at some polling stations. Reportedly, the Election Commission of Pakistan ordered repolling at some polling stations. Pakistan’s electoral system has always been largely controversial, marked by political machinations and military interference; the 2024 polls were no exception. However, what made this election distinct were Imran’s popularity and the challenge it posed to the military establishment, deep polarisation within society and state institutions, and reverberations of the 9 May 2023 violence, which was not only unprecedented but also undermined the military’s image. Apart from pre-poll institutional rigging like denial of the symbol of ‘cricket bat’ to the most popular political party; disenfranchising by compelling them to contest as Independent candidates on a plethora of divergent symbols; obstructing their right to contest by disqualifying the candidature of many stalwarts; and, last but not least, suspending cellular and Internet services on ballot day, the irony is that the massive vote cast in favour of PTI-backed Independent candidates was stolen. This is unbecoming even of any ‘managed democracy’, and is a blot on the system in vogue. It would not be out of tune to mention that apart from 266 directly elected members of the national assembly, there are 70 reserved seats, 60 for women and 10 for minorities. How these reserved seats are allocated will play a key part.
They are supposed to be distributed in proportion to the total general seats won by parties. Not being recognised as a political party will deprive PTI of any of these seats and create an anomalous situation where reserved women and minority seats will simply be distributed among other parties, augmenting their numbers ‘artificially’. Whoever is able to form the government will face several daunting challenges. The most important is dealing with an economy that is still in the critical ward. Soaring inflation has fuelled a cost-of-living crisis, which has played into the election, with PML-N’s inability to secure a majority partly attributable to the burden of incumbency given its record in the PDM government it led until last August.
The next government will have to expeditiously negotiate a fresh, extended programme with the IMF as the stand-by arrangement will end in March. This is urgently needed for Pakistan to meet its heavy foreign debt liabilities in the years ahead. But a weak coalition government will dampen the prospects of wideranging economic reforms that Pakistan desperately needs to put it on the trajectory of sustainable growth and investment. If the next government is a minority one, dependent for survival on appeasing a motley group of parties, will it be able to take tough and politically painful decisions to extricate the country from the economic crisis? The next government will also have to deal with the challenge of establishing smooth and stable relations with the establishment which in recent years has acquired a much larger role in politics and governance, even in economic and investment matters.
The state of civil-military relations could be a key factor that determines the longevity of the coalition arrangement. An election that people hoped would deliver political stability has ended up creating a host of uncertainties and issues of legitimacy. Pakistan is in dire need of stability that can only be established by a process of reconciliation and healing. Voters see democracy as the best path to achieve stability.
But the question is whether the country’s leaders can live up to the challenge of working democracy in the public interest and not just their own. The powerful establishment of Pakistan is the final decision maker in the country but it is very clear the situation remains precarious and perplexed.