July 4, 2024
JAKARTA – All 10 members of ASEAN, as well as the collective grouping, have correctly refrained from responding to the summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un. While the United States and its Asian military allies, Japan and South Korea, strongly condemned the meeting, ASEAN has avoided unnecessary misunderstanding that could escalate tensions in the region.
Dynamics in the region has been complex. East Asian nations are the most strategic partners for ASEAN in terms of economy, security and defense. Leaders in this region tend to maintain a certain level of understanding about the desperate moves of Putin and Kim, who are facing isolation from the international community.
ASEAN will have an opportunity to get firsthand information from various sides about the summit when it hosts the annual ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Vientiane on July 27. The ARF is internationally recognized as one of the world’s most powerful forums, especially regarding the situation in East Asia and the South China Sea.
The ARF gathers the 10 ASEAN member states and their 10 dialogue partners: the US, China, Japan, Canada, India, South Korea, Russia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the European Union, as well as other countries in the region such as Papua New Guinea, Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan, Timor-Leste, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as observers.
The upcoming forum will give outgoing Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi an opportunity to talk to both her Russian and North Korean counterparts, although North Korea rarely attended the previous ARFs. Nevertheless, the forum is an excellent place to discuss the latest situation in East Asia, including conflicts and tensions among parties.
In their joint statement, Putin and Kim acknowledged that each country would provide “all available military and other assistance if the other faced armed aggression”, effectively reviving the automatic military engagement clause in the 1961 treaty signed between North Korea and the Soviet Union. It expired in 1996, but it is just a document.
President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has a good personal relationship with Putin, but has never met Kim in person. Ties between Jakarta and Pyongyang have been well maintained, although more on the political and less on the economic front.
Southeast Asian nations have intentionally distanced themselves from sensitive issues like the Putin-Kim summit because the regional grouping has built good rapport with both Moscow and Pyongyang. ASEAN leaders are also aware that the most recent Russia-North Korea agreement was motivated by short-term interests, namely Putin’s desperate need for arms to continue his war in Ukraine and Kim’s assurance of Russian oil supplies and high tech to develop its nuclear weapons.
The summit gave a semblance of the Cold War atmosphere in the Korean Peninsula in the 1950s as the US and its allies condemned the meeting.
China has been officially mum about the encounter of two of its closest allies, although a government-controlled newspaper described the summit and its decision as a “rational choice” over the trilateral military pact between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol hosted a trilateral summit with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
As predicted, Western media mocked the Putin-Kim summit as a meeting of two pariah state leaders, but also described it as a very dangerous event, especially for stability in East Asia.
ASEAN has rightly opted to keep silent, although the repercussions of the summit can potentially endanger some of its East Asian dialogue partners. The Biden administration reportedly tried to push ASEAN to react to the Pyongyang meeting but to no avail, because Southeast Asian countries do not want to get involved in the tension between great powers.
Drawing a clear line in the issue will only complicate the conflict, while de-escalation is all that matters. The ASEAN way is so far the best policy to avoid unnecessary misunderstanding. In such a time of crisis like this, the ARF is an event we can’t wait for.