ASEAN, the unlikely beneficiary of East Asian giants’ rivalry

An example of their common view on ASEAN is their agreement to use the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, billed as the world’s largest free trade agreement, as the basis for their negotiations to reach a much more sophisticated trade pact among them.

Kornelius Purba

Kornelius Purba

The Jakarta Post

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June 3, 2024

JAKARTA – In their joint declaration that capped their trilateral summit on May 27, host South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese Premier Li Qiang paid much attention to the strategic importance of ASEAN, apparently because the three leaders found it impossible to find common ground on North Korea, the Taiwan Strait and other regional security threats.

One of the prominent examples of their common view on ASEAN is their agreement to use the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), billed as the world’s largest free trade agreement, as the basis for their negotiations to reach a much more sophisticated trade pact among them.

According to media reports, the three East Asian leaders agreed to “keep discussions for speeding up negotiations for a Trilateral FTA”.

In their joint statement, the three leaders affirmed “the importance of ensuring implementation in a transparent, smooth and effective manner of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement as the basis of a Trilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA)”.

“We will keep discussions for speeding up negotiations for a Trilateral FTA, aiming at realizing a free, fair, comprehensive, high-quality, and mutually beneficial FTA with its own value,” the joint statement reads.

It remains too early to get a clearer picture of how ASEAN nations will benefit from the political rapprochement among their northeastern neighbors, which are among their most important trading and investment partners. China and Japan have been competing for influence in Southeast Asia, while South Korea is smartly playing the alternative role thanks to its advanced technology.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has softened his ambition to revive the stalled free trade scheme, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which was originally aimed at, among other goals, containing China in what was supposed to be close collaboration with the United States.

It seems the turnaround has helped the Japanese leader achieve major progress in the negotiation of the trilateral free trade agreement during the Seoul summit. The talks stalled in 2019 because of China’s objections.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, Japan, the fourth, and South Korea, the 14th, are parties to the RCEP, which was approved in 2020 but came into effect on Jan. 1, 2022. Aside from the 10-member ASEAN, other signatories of the legally binding agreement are Australia and New Zealand.

Kishida said, as quoted by the Japanese Foreign Ministry, that Japan intends to have a candid exchange of views on how a future-oriented trilateral free trade agreement should be organized, including high-level economic discipline among the three countries, which have deep ties in both trade and investment, aiming for an RCEP-plus agreement.

As recently as February, Japan and the US had supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which grouped mostly Western countries and sought to contain China. However, under president Donald Trump in 2016, Washington axed the TPP.

Hoping the US would return to the trade bloc someday, Japan and Australia sponsored the CPTPP. But later they realized that the US would never come back. As if to add insult to injury, China applied to join the new trade bloc.

The CPTPP was practically dead when Joe Biden took office in January 2021. The US president opted not to revive the TPP because of strong domestic opposition to the trade pact.

Biden then proposed the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which did not need the approval of Congress. ASEAN countries accepted the invitation to join the new group more as a matter of diplomatic courtesy to Biden.

During the Seoul summit, the three East Asian leaders expressed their commitment to a closer relationship with ASEAN, one of the world’s most powerful regional organizations and which continues to attract attention from global powers, including the US and its allies.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang praised what he called a restart in relations with Japan and South Korea as he met President Yoon and PM Kishida for the first three-way talks in four years, agreeing to revive trade and security dialogues hampered by global tensions.

“For China, South Korea and Japan, our close ties will not change, the spirit of cooperation achieved through crisis response will not change and our mission to safeguard regional peace and stability will not change,” Li said as quoted by Reuters.

Li also emphasized close ties with ASEAN, given the region’s stability and stellar economic performance.

“China, Japan and South Korea should leverage their respective development strengths to create a new engine for regional cooperation that actively addresses the needs of ASEAN and other neighboring countries. The three countries should work together to boost the momentum of ASEAN Plus Three cooperation,” Premier Li said, as quoted by Xinhua.

ASEAN+3 refers to a dialogue forum involving ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea that. was initiated in December 1997 and has since evolved to be the main vehicle to promote East Asian cooperation.

Kishida concurred, acknowledging ASEAN’s pivotal role in maintaining peace in the Indo-Pacific region, where great power rivalry is simmering.

“ASEAN plays a central role in regional stability and prosperity and also welcomes the revitalization of the trilateral process. It is thus more and more important for the three countries to cooperate with ASEAN for mainstreaming ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific [AOIP] in order to bring about stability and prosperity in the region,” Kishida said.

It remains to be seen how ASEAN will seize the opportunities up for grabs following the Seoul trilateral summit. ASEAN could be an unlikely beneficiary of the tensions and competition among its three northeastern neighbors.

For Indonesia, the new development is low hanging fruit, especially for the incoming government. President-elect Prabowo Subianto has visited China and Japan. A South Korean tour will only make perfect sense.

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