July 2, 2025
TOKYO – The momentum for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has stagnated so much that it is hard to believe the party was until quite recently called the “overwhelmingly dominant force in the Diet.”
Whether the LDP can regain the public’s trust and continue to manage the government will be tested in the upcoming House of Councillors election.
A nationwide survey by The Yomiuri Shimbun in June showed that the approval rating for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet stood at 32%, almost unchanged from 31% in the May survey. The Cabinet barely avoided a figure sinking into the 20s, which is considered “dangerous waters,” likely because it has brought down soaring rice prices, albeit only slightly.
On the other hand, the support rating for the LDP fell by two percentage points from the May survey to 23%. This is a record low for the party since its return to power in December 2012, matching the low hit in the March 2024 survey.
In March 2024, many senior members of the former Abe faction and others were speaking at the Diet’s Deliberative Council on Political Ethics. They were denying their involvement in the scandal surrounding political fundraising parties for factions, which involved violations of the Political Funds Control Law.
Though the LDP is not currently facing any scandals, the party may have lost support due to a buildup of distrust toward its political stance and policies. Since its return to power, the party has seen its strongest support in April 2013, during the second Cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and in November 2020, for the Cabinet of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. The support ratings rose to 48% in both instances.
The figures indicating the decline in the LDP’s momentum are not limited to the party support ratings.
In the latest survey, only 24% of respondents chose the LDP as the party they would vote for in the proportional representation segment of the upper house election. This was the lowest figure compared to the figures in the previous surveys before upper house elections in 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022.
This year’s May and June surveys also showed that more people were against the ruling bloc — the LDP and Komeito — maintaining a majority in the upper house than people in favor. That is two surveys in a row.
Although the questions have been asked in a different way, this is the first time since Prime Minister Taro Aso’s Cabinet, just before LDP ceded control to the Democratic Party of Japan in 2009, that respondents have hoped for an opposition victory ahead of a major national election.
The ruling parties have found themselves in such a difficult position because they continue to manage the political situation haphazardly. Supporters likely view the parties as irresponsible for accepting the arguments of the opposition with little attempt to examine them, even though this was done for the minority ruling parties to pass the budget proposal and bills.
This spring, the Ishiba Cabinet tried to provide cash handouts as a response to high prices. However, since this was not well received by the public, the Cabinet abandoned the idea. Nevertheless, the cash handouts have been brought up again just before the upper house election. It must be said that the Cabinet’s policies lack consistency.
Amid the increasingly tense international situation, Ishiba did not attend a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization last month. His absence must have made LDP supporters doubt whether he can be trusted to steer Japan’s diplomacy.