October 10, 2023
BEIJING – BOC Research Institute, the research unit of Bank of China, predicted that the Chinese economy will grow about 5.7 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter to achieve yearly growth of around 5.2 percent this year, above the official annual growth target of 5 percent.
The services consumption potential will continue to be unleashed, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, and high-tech and private manufacturing investment will also grow to enhance manufacturing investment, the 2023Q4 Economic and Financial Outlook released by the institute on Sunday said.
That means the endogenous growth momentum of the Chinese economy will gain more steam, it added.
The report predicted that consumption would grow 10 percent and 7.8 percent on a yearly basis respectively in the fourth quarter and in 2023.
In the investment sector, accelerated growth in infrastructure investment and stable growth in manufacturing investment will jointly lead to small-scale growth in overall investment in the coming quarter.
However, weak external demand and remaining profitability pressure in conjunction with the ongoing inventory destocking cycle will somehow impact the willingness and capability of market entities to expand investment in manufacturing. Besides, uncertainties remain in real estate market recovery although recently released policies are expected to help stabilize real estate sales to some extent, the report said.
The report suggested that the authorities should further guide and enhance market confidence through more effort in strengthening communication with market entities when adjusting and introducing policies, continuously improving business environment and defusing risks in key areas.
The report also suggested China give full play to the enormous domestic market to keep expanding effective demand, stimulate the vitality of private capital, and promote industrial transformation and upgrades.
Fiscal policies should become more proactive and effective, playing a bigger role in stabilizing growth while expanding demand, while also paying attention to preventing risks, the report said.