December 2, 2025
BANGKOK – The severe flooding in Hat Yai district, Songkhla, has caused extensive damage to property and loss of life. In response, the government declared a state of emergency in the province on November 25, while the Prime Minister elevated the disaster management level to the highest severity (Level 4) under the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act BE 2550 (2007).
Modern rainfall patterns are no longer merely “heavy” — they now come as high-intensity downpours, hammering cities for hours and overwhelming drainage systems. Daily rainfall of 300–400 millimetres has exceeded all previous models, breaking the city’s defensive thresholds and surpassing the limits of ageing infrastructure.
New-era rainfall overwhelms city systems
Chawalit Chantharat, a water-resource engineer and board member of Team Consulting Engineering and Management Group (Team Group), said Thailand’s most critical vulnerability in coping with mega-floods lies in outdated “water masterplans” and obsolete infrastructure.
Without urgent reform, he warned, the country could face future economic losses worth tens of billions of baht.
“Thailand has entered an era of permanent climate shifts. The turning point was in 2021, which shattered the old belief that disasters occur and subside quickly,” he said.
Today’s rainfall has transformed into “high-intensity storms” or “cloudbursts” — extreme downpours concentrated in small areas rather than spread over wide regions.
Examples include the 350 millimetres of rain that fell over eight hours in Phuket, and the 300 millimetres recorded in San Pa Tong, Chiang Mai. Such levels far exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, which were designed for far milder rainfall patterns.
The duration of disasters has also lengthened significantly. In the recent flooding across the lower South (Phatthalung, Songkhla, Yala, Pattani), heavy rainfall persisted for five to seven days, compared with just three days in the past.
The accumulated rainfall intensified damage, driven by three overlapping climate factors:
- A surge of cold air from China, pushing the monsoon trough southwards over the lower South
- A nearby low-pressure system, such as the one near Kota Bharu in Malaysia, which strengthened the monsoon and prevented it from moving away
- The La Niña phenomenon, which intensified easterly monsoon winds, bringing vast amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Thailand, resulting in 200–400 millimetres of rainfall per day in several areas
Chawalit noted that despite ongoing efforts to improve water management, two critical weaknesses still hinder Thailand’s ability to cope with increasingly severe disasters:
- Policy gaps: The establishment of the Office of the National Water Resources (ONWR) was a step forward, but its water masterplan lacks legal enforcement and does not carry the same authority as urban planning laws.
- Ageing and undersized infrastructure: Existing drainage systems were designed for past climate conditions, making them inadequate for today’s extreme rainfall intensity.
To address long-term climate threats — especially sea-level rise projected to reach 75 centimetres — Chawalit stressed the need for bold, forward-looking strategic decisions over the next 25 years.
One proposed solution is the development of “offshore monkey-cheek retention basins” at river mouths. This alternative is seen as more viable than the traditional plan to raise floodwalls along the Chao Phraya River and coastline — a massive 3,000-kilometre structure estimated to take 22 years to complete and likely to cause severe damage to coastal ecosystems.
Deep-rooted structural problems
Assoc Prof Dr Sucharit Koontanakulvong of the Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, said the failure of Hat Yai’s flood management was not caused by natural forces alone, but by deep-seated structural issues within Thailand’s disaster governance system.
At the heart of the problem, he explained, is a system that relies heavily on single-person decision-making — whether by a mayor or a provincial governor — who faces enormous pressure and often lacks strong technical backing to provide a science-based “second opinion”.
During a crisis, incorrect decisions — such as assuming the situation is “under control” — can trigger a domino effect. Meanwhile, existing operational manuals lack technical clarity and standardisation, resulting in inconsistent and ineffective actions when real emergencies occur.
Sucharit added that Thailand’s flood-protection infrastructure, designed using historical data, is becoming increasingly inadequate for climate-era disasters. The challenges are compounded by inaccurate weather forecasts, intense localised rainfall, and unclear early-warning systems.
The public, he noted, often does not understand what “Warning Level 1, 2 or 3” means or how to respond. The situation is made worse by the influence of social media, where real and false information spread rapidly, fuelling panic.
To break the cycle of recurring damage, Dr Sucharit recommended that Thailand undertake strategic reform based on four key pillars:
- Strengthen decision-support systems by integrating academic expertise and technical specialists as “mentors” to ensure that decision-makers rely on robust, science-based information — especially when ordering evacuations or critical actions.
- Upgrade public warning and communication systems, including developing clear, practical three-tier warning protocols and using visual tools such as “flood marks” — water-level poles with colour-coded indicators installed in high-risk areas — to help people understand real-time risks.
- Adopt proactive planning for extreme scenarios, ensuring each city identifies and protects its “core assets” — such as hospitals, power plants, and command centres — with worst-case protective measures, including dedicated flood barriers.
- Develop human capacity, both for officials and the public, through improved work systems that support shared decision-making, along with regular disaster-preparedness drills.
The lessons from Hat Yai, he stressed, demonstrate that future disaster management must shift from reaction to proactive planning, supported by systems that can function independently and do not rely on any single individual.
Disasters now a major drag on Thailand’s economy
Melinda Good, World Bank Division Director for Thailand and Myanmar, speaking on the topic “From Risk to Resilience: World Bank’s Vision for Thailand and ASEAN” at the “Spotlight Day 2025: New World Order” forum, said Thailand must prioritise flood management and water security as climate impacts intensify.
Failure to act, she warned, would lead to enormous economic losses.
The World Bank has released its Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) — a blueprint for Thailand’s climate adaptation strategy — which estimates that unchecked climate impacts could cost the country 7–14% of GDP by 2050.
If Thailand aims to achieve high-income status and sustain long-term economic growth, strengthening water management — particularly flood management — must be elevated to an urgent national priority, she said.
Neglecting water governance, she added, would result in repeated disruptions to supply chains, weakened agricultural productivity, and increased investor hesitation if assets are not adequately protected.
What we are witnessing now is merely another reminder of the urgency. It is time to act — and to act now, she added.
Thailand warned of future severe floods
Kriengkrai Thiennukul, president of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said the response to the Songkhla flood crisis revealed overlapping bureaucratic structures and fragmented command systems.
Without structural reform and a modernised water-management framework, Thailand faces a heightened risk of severe floods as climate change accelerates the intensity of disasters. During the emergency declarations, multiple command centres issued orders simultaneously, creating confusion for officers on the ground and slowing response operations, he added.
He urged the government to streamline authority and redesign disaster-command mechanisms to ensure unified decision-making and faster mobilisation of resources.
The current crisis, he said, should serve as a lesson for all sectors to develop clear preventive measures, improve urban planning, strengthen emergency communication systems, conduct regular drills, and reform delegation of authority.
Kriengkrai stressed that the present disaster must push all stakeholders to rethink prevention and management systems — from city planning and emergency alerts to rapid-response training and structural reform — to ensure Thailand is better prepared for the next crisis.
Proposal for a dedicated national disaster-management agency
Visit Limlurcha, Vice President of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said Thailand is likely to face severe flooding again as global warming accelerates extreme weather events that previously occurred only once every 30–50 years.
He urged the government to establish a dedicated national agency responsible for disaster management and early warning systems, rather than leaving each province to handle crises individually.
Thailand, he said, needs a unified, nationwide disaster-management framework with clear protocols and response plans for emergencies such as the Hat Yai floods.
He added that Thailand must incorporate global disaster lessons — whether from floods or earthquakes — into its national plan. Existing frameworks may no longer align with present-day realities, as seen in Hat Yai, where rapid urban expansion has outpaced past planning assumptions.