October 15, 2025
TOKYO – The dissolution of the coalition government between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito is likely to impact the next House of Representatives election.
If the LDP fail to secure election cooperation from Komeito, the LDP could lose seats, while the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, could gain ground. This would potentially narrow the gap between the two parties.
Komeito, which has enjoyed votes from LDP supporters, is also being forced to review its election strategy.
“The election cooperation that existed solely because of the coalition is now back to square one,” LDP Secretary General Shunichi Suzuki said with a stern expression at a press conference in Morioka on Monday.
The LDP-Komeito coalition government has been sustained by a cooperation structure for elections that has been cultivated across various regions over a quarter-century. LDP candidates have been able to secure a certain number of election votes from Komeito supporters after receiving endorsements from Komeito.
In exchange for securing a stable base of Komeito voters, the LDP has called its supporters to vote Komeito in the proportional representation elections, aiming to deepen election cooperation by dividing roles between single-seat constituencies and the proportional representation segment.
If this cooperation ends, LDP candidates will lose votes by Komeito, which are estimated at 10,000 to 20,000 per single-seat constituency. Consequently, there is a growing sense of urgency within the LDP, with a former cabinet minister stating, “If a lower house election is held now, we will suffer a crushing defeat.”
Reversals in 23 constituencies
According to estimates calculated by The Yomiuri Shimbun, out of single-seat constituencies in the 2024 lower house election in which LDP candidates won by receiving Komeito’s endorsements, reversals could occur in 23 constituencies if Komeito votes are lost.
The estimates were based on the results of exit polls conducted jointly with regional broadcasters in the Nippon TV network on election day. Komeito votes were calculated by multiplying the number of valid votes in each constituency by Komeito’s support rate under the assumption that all such votes went to the LDP.
For example, in Kanagawa Constituency No. 17, former digital minister Karen Makishima won by a margin of 4,174 votes over the CDPJ candidate. However, out of the about 115,000 votes cast for her, Komeito votes were estimated at just under 10,000. If the Komeito votes were lost, Makishima would lose as the CDPJ candidate would overtake her.
Of the runner-up candidates who would win in 23 constituencies if results were reversed, 19 are from the CDPJ. If the number of seats won in the proportional representation election remains unchanged, the LDP’s total number of seats would be 168 and that of the CDPJ would be 167, making them nearly equal.
The number of Komeito votes could be even higher if votes by advance polling and other factors are included. If they are simply estimated at a maximum of 20,000 votes per constituency, LDP candidates such as party Election Strategy Committee Chairperson Keiji Furuya from Gifu Constituency No. 5, and National Public Safety Commission Chairperson Manabu Sakai from Kanagawa Constituency No. 5 who won by less than 20,000 votes over their runners-ups, would also suffer defeat, possibly further reducing the LDP’s seats.
Purification or cooperation
With the appointment of Sanae Takaichi, one of the representatives of conservative lawmakers, taking office, some within the LDP hope that the “rock-solid conservative votes” that are believed to have flowed to the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito since last year’s lower house election will return to the LDP. Some are also suggesting that ending cooperation with Komeito would allow the LDP to project itself as a more purified conservative party.
The long-standing cooperation, which could be described as a “LDP-Komeito fusion,” has frequently been questioned within both parties.
A middle-ranking LDP lawmaker viewed the dissolution of the coalition in a positive way, saying: “We were practically integrated, even sharing our support group membership lists. It’s about time we parted ways.”
However, there are moves to retain Komeito within the LDP at the prefectural level. The LDP’s Kagoshima prefectural chapter confirmed on Saturday that friendly relations between the LDP and Komeito prefectural assembly members would be maintained, and the decision was reported to the party headquarters.
This is because the Komeito side has left room for maintaining cooperation with the LDP in the future. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito said that his party would “judge candidates based on their personal characters and support them on a region-by-region basis.”
After the meeting at the LDP chapter, former LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama told reporters, “We will continue to value this relationship going forward.”