November 6, 2024
WEST PALM BEACH – Millions of Americans began queueing up to cast their votes on a chilly November morning, as polling booths opened in an election guaranteed to make history.
The Nov 5 election may produce the first woman to command the world’s most powerful military in Ms Kamala Harris, should the Democratic Vice-President become the first person of Asian descent and the first black woman to hold the office.
Or it could be another unprecedented moment if former president Donald Trump becomes the first convicted felon to claim the White House. If the Republican candidate wins, he would also become the first president in 132 years to be elected to two non-consecutive terms.
The new president will have to move quickly to manage the two wars in Europe and the Middle East, with implications for global stability and the rules-based international order.
Trump is the favourite of Americans casting their votes based on whom they trust more to ease worries about the economy, illegal immigration and national security.
On the other hand, Ms Harris wins if the voters care more for abortion rights or the defence of democracy.
The final opinion polls put both contestants still in a dead heat across the seven swing states that will ultimately decide the race.
A winner may not emerge at the end of election day if the contest is indeed as tight as projected and ends up triggering an automatic recount.
This is possible in the key battleground of Pennsylvania, if less than half a percentage point separates the winner from the loser.
A clean sweep for either is also in the realm of possibility.
It is expected that Trump may prematurely declare victory as he did in 2020, opening the door to lengthy legal battles that both sides are prepared for.
The Republicans have already filed more than 100 pre-election lawsuits that raise objections, such as over the presence of non-citizens on the electoral rolls, underlining their distrust in the country’s election system.
The worst outcome would be an outbreak of violence at polling locations, a possibility not ruled out by analysts.
On the eve of election day, Ms Harris made her final pitch at a late-night rally in Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, which could well pick the winner of this election.
“Make no mistake, we will win,” she told a crowd in Allentown.
The number of electoral college votes from this state, along with those from Wisconsin and Michigan, will be enough for her to sail into the White House. All three have voted for a Democrat for decades, except in 2016, when they chose Trump.
The former president – who was convicted of 34 felony counts in a New York hush-money case in May and faces at least two other criminal cases – finished his final rally two hours after midnight in Grand Rapids, Michigan, with a vow to win with a “landslide victory that is too big to rig”.
Several winning combinations are possible for either candidate to reach the simple majority of 270 electoral votes in a 538-member electoral college under America’s unique system of electing its president.
In the simultaneous Congressional races, the Republicans are predicted to gain a majority in the Senate, while surrendering their control of the House of Representatives.
The 2024 election will spill open the various divisions in American society – along gender and age, with women and young voters expected to favour Ms Harris, and along race and class, with white voters and blue-collar workers aligning with Trump.
The election is also remarkable for its significant amount of foreign interference, particularly from Iran, Russia and China, according to US intelligence agencies.
Analysts say their interests are not coordinated or aligned, even if all three are American adversaries.
“Iranians clearly are pro-Harris, the Russians clearly are pro-Trump, and the Chinese are not quite sure and are focused on down-ballot (Congress) races,” Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer said in a pre-election press briefing in Washington.
Iran expects a Trump administration to be more confrontational and pro-Israel, while Ms Harris may re-engage Tehran. Russia expects that Trump will drop support for Ukraine if he acts on his promise to quickly end the war.
China believes that either president will continue with policies that deepen the Sino-American geopolitical rivalry, but Trump would also impose heavy tariffs on goods from China and restart a damaging trade war at a time when the Chinese economy is weak.
When will results be known?
The earliest polls close at 6pm Eastern Time (7am Singapore time on Nov 6) in Republican states like Kentucky and Indiana. Wire services and US TV networks will begin projecting the winner soon afterwards, depending on when the state’s rules allow the results to be reported.
In the seven swing states, the likely winner may not be clear until much later because the races are tight. Some early indications of what is to come may be available after polls close in the two swing states along the East Coast – Georgia (7pm ET) and North Carolina (7.30pm ET).
Between 8pm and 9pm ET, polls will close in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. They close an hour later in Nevada.
The election may be called on election night, as it was in 2016 when Trump was declared the winner at 2.29am.
Or, it could take days.
In the 2020 election, the Associated Press declared President Joe Biden the winner four days after polls closed on Nov 3.
But that was an extraordinary election, held amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
North Carolina was declared for Trump 10 days after election day and Georgia for Mr Biden on Nov 20, after hand recounts.
An outlier was the Nov 7, 2000, election, in which the campaigns of former president George W. Bush and his opponent Al Gore waged a recount battle over a tight contest in Florida.
The race was won by Mr Bush more than a month later, on Dec 12. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state’s recount process, which kept Mr Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.