June 26, 2024
KATHMANDU – Polarisation has become a widespread phenomenon in the last decade. The electoral victories of Narendra Modi in 2014, Donald Trump in 2016, Jair Bolsonaro in 2019 and the gradually emboldened far-right in Europe clearly suggest a crisis in liberal democracy. This phenomenon permeates global politics, threatening the current world order in the form of tumults, wars, recessions and a multitude of other crises. However, the interesting question is why polarisation benefits only rightists and not others.
The United States will elect a new president by the end of this year. However, candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties are old figures, and there is no excitement or expectation from them. Biden, 82, wants to retain the White House; Trump, 79, hopes to return. Since their policies have dominated US politics for the last decade, it is almost certain what Biden and Trump will do if either of them is reelected. Biden will continue his conventional and centrist policies, and Trump will bring rightist and fascist policies into the mainstream. The significant difference between them is that Trump is a more unpredictable and polarising figure than Biden.
There are four major polarising agendas in US politics that benefit Trump. First, Americans have been deeply divided into Pro-Roe v. Wade and anti-Roe camps. Ostensibly, this issue is not that serious since it is merely about abortion rights. Still, its interpretation and implications take it into the core of the left and right political ideologies. Religion/Bible, ethics and individual rights have come to the centre of this debate.
Second, US politics has been deeply polarised amid the unprecedented migration crisis. The US is known as a country of migrants. However, floods of refugees from the southern border have become a serious political issue. Biden seems to have failed to address this problem and instead buys the solution offered by Trump, i.e., building the wall on the southern border. Furthermore, whatever solutions he has brought will benefit him in the elections.
Third, amid the long income stagnation, the meteoric rise of the wealth of a few individuals has engendered frustration, anger and dissatisfaction among voters. This has also caused disorientation in American society. Despite the Biden administration boasting of creating employment and taking control of inflation, people have felt no qualitative change in their lives. In fact, they blame Biden for not creating equal opportunities in health, education and housing. This widespread disenchantment is going to favour Trump in the upcoming election.
Fourth, foreign policy is another crucial polarising factor in the US. Despite China’s policy seeming to unite, the Israeli policy has divided the nation. Israel has metamorphosed into a fascist state under US patronage and the premiership of Benjamin Netanyahu, as it is committing genocide against Palestinians. After October 7, when Hamas-affiliated terrorists attacked Israel, there has been continuous bombardment, land invasion and indiscriminate killing of women and children. The US policy to provide military assistance and security guarantees to Israel has divided the US into two camps: pro-Palestine and pro-Israel. This polarisation has hurt the centrist Biden, while one camp of his supporters wants him to stop the war on Gaza. These supporters call themselves “non-committed”. This is also going to benefit Trump in the elections.
Another front of this global polarisation is Europe. Far-right political parties have been emboldened. They do not shy away anymore from advocating their anti-migrant, racist and xenophobic agenda. The European Union’s recent parliamentary election starkly demonstrates this polarisation. Marine Le Pen’s party, National Rally, has become the biggest party representing France in the EU parliament, winning 32 percent of the votes. President Emmanuel Macron has called for a snap election due to the humiliating performance of his Party, Renaissance. However, this decision seems to have given the far-right the much-needed opportunity. Germany is not an exception. The performance of the centrist ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany and its coalition partners was poor, and the far-right Alternative for Germany is taking hold with 16 percent of the votes.
India is another interesting case in which political polarisation is seen. Narendra Modi has become Prime Minister for a consecutive third term. His anti-minority, Hindu supremacist and majoritarian politics have not been defeated even after a decade-long experiment. His party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), won 240 seats in the recent elections, making it the single largest party in the parliament with 543 seats. As the largest party in the world, the BJP has influenced small South Asian nations toward communal politics. However, Modi’s politics caused polarisation in the sub-continent as centrist space collapsed under his iron-fist rule.
Polarisation helping the right
European Green parties’ electoral loss is an interesting case of why rightists have exploited the space created by global polarisation. Despite the severe climate crisis, they performed poorly in the European parliamentary elections—all because of their ideological shortcomings.
They must confront the widespread problems in Europe, i.e. income stagnation, class hierarchy, immigration crisis and war. Moreover, they cannot indulge in irrational politics by exploiting frustration and anger against the current global system. They cannot act irresponsibly, inhumanly and extra-judicially. They need to bring about ideological clarity or reason to create unity among the left-leaning mass, which is disgruntled by global capitalism.
Unfortunately, they have failed to do so. Voters consider their so-called “green agenda” myopic, capitalist and insufficient as they failed to address serious issues. They could not offer any solutions for the migration crisis or the Ukraine war. They have offered no permanent solutions for the climate crisis and class discrimination, making them irrelevant in the eyes of voters. American and Indian left-leaning political parties have also faced the same problem.
Left-leaning political parties fail to understand that global polarisation is the result of the crisis of capitalism. Their job to critique it is no longer a need but an option. European Green parties’ agendas, like electric vehicles against fossil fuel use to deal with the climate crisis, are ridiculously insufficient. They need to develop a systemic alternative where poor, wealthy, migrants, native, new and old generations all can find their space. For that, they need to offer an alternative way of life. Without this, their divide will remain intact, and rightist parties will hijack the space.