Dhaka’s earthquake danger ignored for too long

The fate of a megacity like Dhaka facing a potential major earthquake depends on its level of preparation, scientific insight, and coordinated action, says the writer. Without these, she adds, an earthquake could escalate into an unprecedented human tragedy.

Monira Sharmin

Monira Sharmin

The Daily Star

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Rescuers in action after an earthquake hit Dhaka and other districts on November 21, 2025. PHOTO: THE DAILY STAR

November 24, 2025

DHAKA – Did you ever hear about the earthquake epicentre in Narsingdi prior to the November 21 incident? On Friday, at least 10 people, including two children, were killed and several hundred injured after a 5.7-magnitude earthquake shook Dhaka, nearby districts, and other parts of the country, cracking buildings, sending debris crashing down, and driving panicked residents into the streets. Narsingdi alone recorded five deaths. For many, this was the first real experience of the earth’s raw power. While the shaking lasted only a few seconds, its impact revealed just how vulnerable even near-urban areas are to seismic disasters. It was also a wake-up call for us to identify the blind faults, among other priorities.

A blind fault is one that leaves no visible scars on the landscape and does not fracture the surface. These faults can cause large earthquakes but are obscured by conventional geological surveys. Unlike well-known fault lines, their very invisibility makes them uniquely dangerous. The odds that such hidden structures exist beneath densely populated areas are increased by recent tremors in central Bangladesh, which is far from the well-mapped Dauki or Madhupur faults. Because Bangladesh is situated on soft alluvial soils and between tectonic boundaries, experts have long cautioned about the country’s vulnerability to earthquakes.

Numerous experts and public voices had expressed concern about our lack of preparedness even before the Friday earthquake and the tremors that followed. Dhaka’s building stock is particularly vulnerable due to weak inspection systems, construction on reclaimed wetlands, and non-compliance with the Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC).

In a megacity like Dhaka, an earthquake would not occur in isolation but would rather set off a chain of cascading disasters, rendering the catastrophe far deadlier than the initial tremor. Dhaka exemplifies a multi-hazard risk environment due to its high population density, unregulated urban expansion, soft soil issues, outdated infrastructure, and constrained road networks. A quake could quickly initiate fires from ruptured gas lines, structural failures, obstructed roads, hazardous spills, electrical failures, water supply breakdowns, and urban flooding from broken pipelines. These secondary risks can quickly intensify, burdening emergency responders and ensnaring inhabitants.

Worldwide experience demonstrates that the highest mortality rates typically result from the cascading events following an earthquake, rather than from the quake alone. In Japan, the lethal firestorms and fire whirl that devastated Tokyo and Yokohama after the 1923 Great Kantō earthquake claimed more lives than the violent shaking itself, highlighting how swiftly urban disasters can escalate into overwhelming calamities. Dhaka encounters similar threats—a single peril can trigger numerous others, escalating a significant earthquake into a complex, multi-dimensional catastrophe that surpasses our existing readiness level.

Against this backdrop, what’s most worrying is that planning at the national level has not kept up. Despite the existence of seismic zoning maps, their enforcement is still lax, and some older but densely populated neighbourhoods have never had their risk looked at. This lack of readiness is not hypothetical. A significant earthquake could turn Dhaka into a “death trap” if prompt action is not taken. In the meantime, experts in urban planning advise decentralising the capital to lower the risk of catastrophe.

Although blind faults cannot be avoided, their harm can be lessened if Bangladesh can take decisive action. To identify blind-fault activity early, we need to increase seismic monitoring by installing a denser network of seismometers throughout Dhaka, Narsingdi, and other high-risk areas. Strict enforcement of the building code is necessary to guarantee that buildings, particularly older ones, undergo routine structural assessments and that at-risk buildings are clearly labelled for retrofitting.

Bangladesh presently has only a limited seismic monitoring network rather than a comprehensive nationwide system, leaving the country short of the scientific infrastructure required to track the subtle yet vital geophysical signals that accompany tectonic stress. Likewise, although hydrological and geochemical observations exist for general water management and research, the country lacks a coordinated, nationwide hydrological, geochemical, and electromagnetic monitoring programme specifically designed to detect earthquake-related anomalies such as sudden groundwater variations, radon spikes, or low-frequency EM disturbances. These gaps do not mean total absence, but rather insufficient coverage and integration, which exacerbates the preparedness deficit at a time when hidden faults and urban vulnerabilities demand enhanced alertness.

Our earthquake vulnerability is rooted in unsafe, non-compliant buildings and fragile urban systems, especially in Dhaka, Old Dhaka, Narayanganj, Gazipur, and other industrial zones, making structural safety the first national priority. This requires forming a dedicated Building Regulatory Authority (BRA) to enforce the BNBC nationwide, conducting city-wide structural surveys to classify buildings as safe or risky, retrofitting critical public infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, police and fire stations, enforcing a National Seismic Design and Retrofitting Roadmap, installing automatic gas-and-electric shutoff systems to prevent post-quake fires, and decentralising lifelines like blood banks, fuel reserves, and medical storage.

At the same time, community empowerment must be strengthened through a nationwide “45-Second Survival Campaign,” the formation of community emergency response teams (CERTs), mandatory drills in all educational institutions, and continuous volunteer training supported by digital databases. Prepared communities can save lives before formal rescue begins. In parallel, we must modernise the national systems by expanding research on blind faults, increasing seismic monitoring stations (especially in central districts), conducting micro-zonation studies in all major cities, establishing a fully functional National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC), institutionalising the Incident Management System (IMS) with INSARAG-compliant rescue protocols, and regularly updating laws, regulations, SOD, and contingency plans based on new scientific insights.

Finally, to save lives after impact, the country must develop Light, Medium, and Heavy USAR teams, pre-position rescue and medical resources nationwide, expand field hospitals and mobile surgical units, establish a robust mass casualty and dignified dead body management system, enforce a National Debris Management Policy to reopen mobility corridors within hours, and secure emergency restoration of water, electricity, and gas lines through bypass systems.

The fate of a megacity facing a potential major earthquake depends on its level of preparation, scientific insight, and coordinated action. Without these, an earthquake could escalate into an unprecedented human tragedy, but with them, it can be transformed into a manageable emergency, saving countless lives and preserving critical infrastructure.

Monira Sharmin is an independent researcher who currently serves as joint convener at the National Citizen Party (NCP).

Views expressed in this article are the author’s own.

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