September 16, 2024
ANANTNAG/SRINAGAR/PULWAMA – With the picturesque Pir Panjal mountain range in northern India’s Kashmir forming the background, a young man with a mop of curly hair wiped sweat off his face as he stood on top of a mini-truck, addressing a crowd in an election rally in a town called Dooru Shahabad.
“Engineer Rashid is not an agent of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He is an agent for Kashmir. Only he understands the pain of Kashmiris,” said Mr Abrar Rashid, 23, as he asked for votes for his father, Mr Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid.
The 57-year-old engineer-turned-politician is the leader of the Awami Ittehad Party.
The party came to national prominence after Mr Rashid, who contested the 2024 General Election while in jail, pipped former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and National Conference (NC) chief Omar Abdullah, to become MP in his maiden attempt.
Mr Rashid and his son have often referenced the BJP in their speeches to deny criticism from the two main Kashmir parties – NC and the People’s Democratic Party – that their party is a proxy for the BJP and would either divide votes or strike a post-election alliance with the BJP.
Engineer Rashid, who has been in jail for 5½ years on terror financing charges, is also on the campaign trail after getting interim bail for 22 days from Sept 11.
Their followers chanted: “Pressure cooker, pressure cooker” – the party’s election symbol – at the rally on Sept 12, ahead of the first state election in nearly a decade.
Jammu and Kashmir is holding its three-phase election on Sept 18, Sept 25 and Oct 1, with the counting scheduled for Oct 8.
This will be the first assembly election there since the repeal of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in 2019.
The article gave special status to the territory, allowing it to make its own laws in all matters except finance, defence, foreign affairs and communications.
The state was also bifurcated in 2019, with a separate union territory of Ladakh carved out of Jammu and Kashmir, and downgraded to a union territory, which has less autonomy than a state.
In the 90-seat assembly, Muslim-majority Kashmir has 47 seats and Hindu-majority Jammu has 43.
The election is a key inflection point for the Muslim-majority region, which is seeing new trends like the entry of separatists, who for decades boycotted the polls, and voters who have found their political voice and are keen to vote.
Many independents and smaller regional parties are contesting, giving voters multiple choices but potentially dividing votes that would have otherwise gone to the two main parties.
At the heart of the political discourse is the BJP, because of its decision in 2019 to strip the region of its autonomy.
The key battle is seen to be between the BJP – which is hoping to pick up seats in Hindu-majority Jammu and expected to tie up with smaller regional parties and independents in Kashmir – and NC, which is in alliance with the main national opposition party Congress.
The BJP kicked off its campaigning in Kashmir on Sept 14 with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who said “terrorism is on its last legs” in the state, while addressing a rally in Doda in the eastern part of Jammu.
He pledged that the BJP would “build a secure and prosperous” Kashmir “that is free of terrorism and a haven for tourists”.
During the state election in 2014, the BJP won 25 seats, the Congress 12, and major regional parties People’s Development Party 28 and the NC 15, apart from other smaller parties and independents.
In the 2024 parliamentary election, BJP won the two seats in Jammu while the NC won two of the three seats in Kashmir, with Engineer Rashid winning the remaining seat.
Loss of special status
Nearly nine million people are registered to vote for the current election.
While voters believe the special status cannot be reinstated, many still harbour anger and disappointment over the move, posing a challenge for the BJP, which seeks to increase its footprint in Kashmir.
“I will vote so that only those who represent the true interest of Kashmiris come to power. They took away our special status, how can we forgive them? Yes, Article 370 is an issue for me in these elections,” said a shopkeeper in Srinagar, the largest city and summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir, who did not want to give his name.
In the four years since the abrogation of Article 370, critics have also accused the federal government of human rights violations as dozens of Kashmiris, including separatist leaders, were jailed and a crackdown on dissent led to an uneasy calm.
But the BJP has dismissed these allegations, instead highlighting that peace has been restored in Kashmir in the last four years, claiming that anti-India sentiment has decreased and tourism has made a strong comeback.
Since gaining independence from the British, India and Pakistan have clashed over control of Kashmir for decades, with three wars fought over the region.
“Our focus is on peace first. BJP has maintained peace here (since the abrogation of Article 370),” said Mr Mohammad Rafiq Wani, a BJP candidate from Anantnag West, one of 17 candidates the party has fielded in Kashmir. “It is not true that the BJP is unpopular.”
The BJP did not field any candidates in the parliamentary election in Kashmir in June but won two seats from Jammu.
Mr Abdullah noted that the BJP strategy appeared to be to pick up as many allies as possible in Kashmir.
“Most of the regional parties and independents are clearly available to the BJP, which would suggest the BJP’s interest is in getting more of them elected and fewer of us,” he said.
Desire to vote
Moving away from polls boycott, which used to be the norm in Kashmir, many youngsters in particular said it was crucial to have local representation to get local issues an airing.
“We don’t have anyone to go to right now with complaints or requests (on any issue) because we don’t have a state government,” said Mr Wahid Ahmed Bhatt, whose family cultivates saffron, a spice that Kashmir is famous for, in Pulwama district.
He said that saffron farming, for instance, requires aid from the government to improve irrigation facilities.
The 2024 parliamentary election saw a 58.46 per cent voter turnout, as opposed to 19.16 per cent in the 2019 edition, which was held amid a polls boycott.
Even a key separatist organisation, Jamaat-e-Islami, which boycotted elections for the last four decades, has now entered the fray, gauging the changing public mood.
Jamaat is a banned socio-religious-political group, often described as the ideological fountainhead of the terror outfit Hizb-ul Mujahideen.
Dr Talat Majeed, who is contesting the Pulwama assembly constituency as an independent for the Jamaat-e-Islami, said: “The 2024 Parliament elections have proved that India really is the mother of democracy. As assembly elections are being held in the same way as the parliamentary elections, there is no reason (for us) to be away from elections.
“The Majlis-e-shura (the highest decision-making body in the Jamaat) decided to participate in elections but not in the name of the Jamaat because we are under a ban, and they have decided to field independent candidates.”
Other issues
Still, Kashmir is facing multiple issues such as unemployment and drug use among youth.
According to the 2022-2023 Annual Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report, the unemployment rate in India stood at 3.2 per cent, while it was 4.4 per cent in Jammu and Kashmir.
Then there is the economy, which is for now dependent on tourism, with negligible manufacturing activity or services sector activity restricted to restaurants, hotels and shops.
The People’s Democratic Party, which was last in power in a tie-up with the BJP, claimed in its manifesto that it will restore Jammu and Kashmir to its original status, and protect land and employment rights, with locals getting first right over all government tenders including mining contracts.
The Jamaat has promised a cancer hospital in south Kashmir, while the BJP has promised to create 500,000 jobs and give 3,000 rupees (S$46) to college students.
The election comes at a time when ties between India and Pakistan remain tense. India blames Pakistan for fuelling decades-long militancy in Kashmir.
While India has ruled out any talks with Pakistan, local parties have maintained that talks with Pakistan have to take place to find a lasting solution to peace and this has also been a part of their polls campaign.
Political analysts said Kashmir is going through a new phase where disillusionment and existential questions are now mixed with a sense of hope and a focus on livelihood issues from jobs to economic development.
“In this election, people are participating with a certain degree of enthusiasm. Possibly, they have a point to make,” said Dr Noor Ahmad Baba, a Kashmir-based political analyst and professor of political science.
“This election gives an opportunity for people to express whether they approve of reshaping of the state or not.
“Lots of new parties and independents have emerged, creating uncertainty about the final outcome. We need to watch what happens in the election. I anticipate a good number of people to come out to vote.”