From pledges to progress: Can COP30 move the needle on climate action?

SINGAPORE – Almost 200 countries will from Nov 10 gather in the Amazonian city of Belem in Brazil for two weeks to discuss how pledges made under the Paris Agreement can be implemented.

The Straits Times highlights the key issues on the table at the UN climate conference COP30, and the tasks that negotiators from the various parties will have to overcome.

Adaptation

Adaptation refers to actions that can manage the damage caused by climate change. This includes building sea walls to keep out rising seas, or adopting early warning systems to reduce damage from disasters.

Task 1: Agreeing on what adaptation means

A key aim of COP30 is for nations to agree on a set of specific and measurable targets, called indicators, that countries can use to measure their progress on adaptation.

This is especially important given the escalating climate impacts experienced around the world, from raging wildfires to more intense storms and worsening heatwaves.

But agreeing on this set of indicators can be tricky, since adaptation efforts are often highly context-specific. What works in one location to protect communities from sea-level rise, for example, may not work at another stretch of coastline.

So far, a panel of experts from across the globe have whittled down an initial list of more than 9,500 indicators to 100.

They include indicators that will enable nations to monitor progress towards reducing injuries and deaths from heat, or cases of climate-sensitive infectious diseases, among other things.

Task 2: Ensuring targets can translate to action

The need for countries to be prepared to deal with climate impacts is enshrined in the Paris Agreement as the “global goal on adaptation”.

The indicators that countries will agree on at COP30 can help them develop localised adaptation programmes, and enable them to track progress on this front, so lives and livelihoods can be saved.

But developing countries may have l ess resources to implement adaptation plans and track progress on this front.

A key point of contention is whether developing countries can get the help they need, such as funding or support to upgrade their skills in these areas, to execute their national adaptation plans.

Task 3: Securing funding for adaptation

Finance will be an especially tricky discussion point.

Compared to climate mitigation, such as swopping fossil fuels for renewable energy, climate adaptation has over the years received less attention and funding.

A UN report has estimated that developing countries need 12 to 14 times the amount of current finance flows to adapt to climate change.

Developing countries have repeatedly said that the quality of funding is also important. Climate finance will need to avoid increasing debt, which would make it harder for vulnerable countries to invest in adaptation. Grants, concessionary and non-debt creating instruments are key to this.

Mitigation

Mitigation is about tackling the root causes of climate change, by limiting the production of planet-warming greenhouse gases or absorbing them.

Task 1: Limiting global warming

Countries were supposed to submit more ambitious 2035 climate targets, dubbed nationally determined contributions (NDCs), before COP30. To date, only over 70 countries have done so.

The UN emissions gap report published on Nov 4 revealed that to limit warming to 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial times, emissions cuts of 55 per cent will be needed in 2035 compared with 2019 levels.

Countries are also expected to show how their NDCs referenced a UN exercise, called the global stocktake, that had in 2023 recommended a series of measures for greater climate progress.

That exercise had called for nations to halt deforestation and triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 from 2022 levels, among other things.

Task 2: Transitioning away from fossil fuels

It took almost 30 years before the transition away from fossil fuels, the burning of which is a major driver of modern climate change, made it into a final text at COP28 in Dubai.

But this pledge did not appear in the final text at COP29, and all eyes will be on COP30 to see if the commitment by countries to phase out the root cause of climate change remains.

Nature

Countries have recognised that natural ecosystems, which are also vulnerable to climate impacts, can also be an ally to tackle climate change.

Task 1: Focusing on nature

Brazil had insisted on holding COP30 in Belem , its gateway to the world’s largest tropical rainforest – the Amazon forest.

Observers have noted that Brazil’s intent to host the global conference there signals its intention to highlight the importance of these ecosystems, even though the city lacks infrastructure to host tens of thousands of people.

Task 2: Supporting indigenous and community rights

Brazil has coordinated the participation of an estimated 3,000 indigenous people, of which a third will be part of negotiations. This is slated to be the largest showing for these communities.

The presidency said that if indigenous territorial rights are respected, deforestation declines; where they are denied, destruction advances.

The conference in Brazil is expected to highlight the environmental stewardship of indigenous communities.

Task 3: Growing money for forests

While forests have been recognised as important, there remains a gap in financing their restoration and protection.

Brazil wants the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a global fund that supports forest conservation, to be a key deliverable. So far, Indonesia has said it will be involved in the facility.

The global fund aims to use investment returns to reward countries who protect or restore their forests.

Should the facility reach its US$125 billion (S$163 billion) target, it will be the world’s largest “blended finance” mechanism – combining public, philanthropic and private capital.

Finance

Finance is the primary enabler that will unlock ways to advance mitigation, adaptation and protection of natural resources.

Task 1: Increasing climate finance for developing countries

Developing countries are expected to call for more funding to help them take climate action.

At COP29, developed countries agreed to provide US$300 billion in annual climate finance to developing countries – an increase from the previous US$100 billion target.

Developing countries say they need much more than that, and discussions at COP30 will revolve around how this funding amount can be increased to US$1.3 trillion with the participation of other sectors, including from multilateral development banks and the private sector.