September 16, 2024
TOKYO – Four of Japan’s nine prime minister hopefuls are regular visitors to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in a practice that, if the successful candidate continues, will throw a wrench into blossoming ties with South Korea while further chilling relations with China.
Two of the nine candidates argue that Japan should arm itself with nuclear weapons or submarines, while one is calling for an “Asian Nato”, referring to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation alliance of 30 European nations, as well as US and Canada.
Japan is seen as a reliable defender of the geopolitical status quo because it advocates for the rules-based international order.
But how the country’s 102nd prime minister engages with the rest of the world – friend or foe, advanced economies or the Global South – will have important ramifications.
Former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67, and incumbent Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 63, are perceived as front runners in an election that remains wide open going into its Sept 27 finale.
Whoever wins the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) election, for which campaigning kicked off on Sept 12, must steer Japan through choppy geopolitical waters amid intensifying great power competition between the US, its security ally, and China, its largest trading partner.
He or she will also have to contend with a US election on the horizon, as well as simmering fears of a Taiwan conflict.
Political observers think that Japan will largely stay the same course charted by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, given that all nine prime ministerial hopefuls agree on the need for Japan to strengthen its own defences and work closely with like-minded democracies.
But they warn of key ideological differences that hint at a diplomatic naivete that could upset fragile diplomatic balances, with Doshisha University political scientist Toru Yoshida saying that there was “no room for drastic foreign policy manoeuvres” that could worsen global uncertainty.
Senior fellow Tetsuo Kotani of the Japan Institute of International Affairs told The Straits Times: “It is unfortunate that a potential prime minister does not understand the security environment surrounding Japan.”
While he believes that most candidates would “keep the basic direction”, there are policy ideas that will cause alarm, such as Ms Takaichi’s suggestion that Japan should host American nuclear weapons.
Digital Minister Taro Kono, 61, meanwhile, said Japan should lobby to join Aukus, referring to the trilateral alliance between Australia, Britain and the US, and equip itself with nuclear submarines.
“But the US does not have nukes to be introduced in Japan,” Professor Kotani, who teaches at Meikai University, argued. “Nuclear submarines also do not fit in the shallow waters of the East China Sea, and it would be a waste of money for Japan to possess them.”
A nuclear-equipped Japan would be controversial both at home, given that Japan remains the only country in the world to suffer atomic bombings, and abroad, since it could well accelerate an arms race with its nuclear-armed neighbours China, North Korea and Russia.
Mr Kono further said that if he were prime minister, he would urge Nato to revisit plans to launch a liaison office in Tokyo. This was mooted in 2022 but abandoned given the opposition by member states such as France.
Mr Ishiba went even further, and said Japan should lead the formation of what he called an “Asian Nato” to reinforce American alliances in the Indo-Pacific.
He argued that Russia had invaded Ukraine precisely because it was not a member of Nato and did not come under the protection of the alliance, as he stressed the need for a similar collective security framework.
Fellow contender and LDP secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, quizzed Mr Ishiba on this policy at an election debate on Sept 14, saying that it was “unrealistic”.
“Unlike Europe, Asia comprises countries with diverse value systems and different approaches to China,” Mr Motegi said. “Who should be included? Singapore? Thailand? India?”
Mr Ishiba countered – notwithstanding domestic constitutional discussions – that it was the most practical way to broaden and cement existing, overlapping alliances and partnerships in the region.
Further, three of the four regular visitors to the Yasukuni Shrine – Ms Takaichi, former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, and former chief Cabinet secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68 – have vowed to continue doing so even as prime minister.
The fourth, Mr Koizumi, would only say that he would make an “appropriate decision” without directly commenting if he would continue paying respects in person.
The shrine is regarded by Japan’s neighbours as a potent sign of its past militarism. Fourteen Class A war criminals are honoured there alongside other war dead, so top-level visits are seen as a sign of unrepentance and a refusal to atone for war atrocities.
Prime ministers send regular ritual offerings but have stayed away from the shrine – even the Emperor has not visited it after World War II – since then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe went there in 2013.
Before Mr Abe, the last prime minister to visit Yasukuni was Mr Koizumi’s father, Mr Junichiro Koizumi, who led Japan from 2001 to 2006, and brooked no dissent on his annual visits.
Mr Abe’s visit had drawn predictable anger from Beijing and Seoul but also a rare public rebuke from the US, which said it was “disappointed that Japan’s leadership has taken an action that will exacerbate tensions with Japan’s neighbours”.
Ms Takaichi, Mr Kobayashi and Mr Kato, however, said that it should be normal to “offer gratitude and respect to those who were martyred in the line of duty for their homeland”.
The two youngest candidates – Mr Kobayashi and Mr Koizumi – sketched their foreign policy outline on Sept 14.
Mr Kobayashi said he wanted to “advance a new diplomatic strategy for Japan to lead the world in a way that only Japan – and not the US or China – can”.
Mr Koizumi, meanwhile, suggested that his age and family connections would lead to a breakthrough with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Their fathers had met in Pyongyang in summits in 2002 and 2004, while Mr Koizumi noted that being “of the same generation” as Mr Kim, who is believed to be 40, would allow him to build a personal rapport.
He described China as “moving from a one-party dictatorship to a one-person dictatorship” but said, as prime minister, he would proactively seek dialogue with Beijing. Mr Kishida had only two in-person summits with Chinese President Xi Jinping in his three years in office.
“Ultimately, leaders must talk to each other. If not, I don’t think there will be any major progress on various pending issues,” Mr Koizumi said.