October 3, 2024
TOKYO – The start of a new cabinet is happening in a totally unusual manner. It is unprecedented for an upcoming prime minister to announce the dissolution of the House of Representatives for a snap election before taking office.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reversed his previous stance that the lower house election would be held after debates between leaders of the ruling and opposition parties, and decided to dissolve the lower house as soon as possible. This indicates that he has accepted the insistence of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Signs can be seen that the leadership is shifting from the Prime Minister’s Office to the LDP in handling the government.
Ishiba will seek to secure a stable majority of seats by both the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito in the lower house election. He needs to clearly come out with his administration’s vision for the nation and specific policies through the election campaigning so that the public can easily make a decision.
Leadership from Prime Minister’s Office to LDP
Ishiba became the 102nd prime minister after voting in both chambers of the Diet to designate the prime minister, and he launched his Cabinet.
There is an urgent need to address domestic and international challenges, such as the declining population and worsening security environment. Ishiba must make every possible effort to resolve various difficult issues.
The prime minister retained Yoshimasa Hayashi as chief cabinet secretary, a key post in the Cabinet, and appointed Katsunobu Kato as finance minister. Both lawmakers have extensive experience as cabinet ministers, and the prime minister emphasized the sense of stability they provide.
Ishiba also appointed veterans in the reshuffle of the LDP executive posts, with Hiroshi Moriyama as secretary general and Shunichi Suzuki as chairperson of the General Council. Yoshihide Suga and Taro Aso — two former prime ministers — were appointed as vice president and top adviser, respectively. This is because Ishiba expects the presence of the two former prime ministers to serve as anchors within the party.
On the other hand, 13 of the 19 ministers are first-time cabinet members, and 10 do not belong to former or existing party factions. This can also be said to be unusual in that it is a departure from the conventional approach of forming a cabinet in line with the factions’ intent.
The latest appointments in the Cabinet posts have highlighted the fact that Ishiba has extremely limited personal connections within the party.
Of the 20 LDP Diet members who recommended Ishiba for the presidency in the recent party presidential race, six have been appointed to Cabinet posts. It is pointed out that the reason why Ishiba has appointed so many party lawmakers close to him is not only because the appointments were rewards for their support in the election, but also because there are few lawmakers who have close connections to Ishiba within the party.
In addition, Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and Itsunori Onodera, LDP Policy Research Council chairperson, like Ishiba, have experience as defense ministers and are fellow Diet members. For his parliamentary executive secretary, Ishiba chose someone who had been a secretary to him during his spell as defense minister.
However, it cannot be said that Ishiba’s latest appointments have established a unified party structure. Ishiba did not appoint any of the nearly 100 members of the former Abe faction to Cabinet ministers or the party’s four top posts.
Far from party unity
Some observers believe that Ishiba, who has long been far from the mainstream, aimed at putting an end to the system in which Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyukai — the former Abe faction that produced four prime ministers: Yoshiro Mori, Junichiro Koizumi, Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda — takes the lead in managing the party.
If many former Abe faction lawmakers are defeated in the next lower house election and the LDP and Komeito do not retain a majority of seats, the Ishiba administration will fall apart. How to achieve harmony within the party remains as a challenge for the prime minister.
Ishiba had indicated his intention to hold full-fledged debates in the Diet before the lower house election, but at the advice of LDP Secretary General Moriyama and others, Ishiba announced his intention to hold the lower house election with campaigning officially starting on Oct. 15 and the voting and ballot counting taking place on Oct. 27. Counting from the date a prime minister takes office, the dissolution of the lower house after eight days and voting and ballot counting after 26 days will be the shortest time frame for both events since the end of World War II.
Although Ishiba may aim to get a verdict from the public on his new Cabinet while their expectations for it are high, it is true that he has given the impression that the right to dissolve the lower house, which is within the prime minister’s prerogative, lies in the party.
The prime minister’s intraparty base is fragile, and there is a possibility that policies and political situations could be decided with the party taking the lead from now on.
Whether the prime minister can put on track his Cabinet that has started out in an unstable state will depend on his ability.
The security environment around Japan is greatly deteriorating. China is threatening Japan by stepping up its hegemonic maritime activities. The threat from North Korea, with its repeated launches of ballistic missiles, and that from Russia, which violates Japan’s airspace and threatens its sovereignty, cannot be underestimated.
Urgent need to address intl situation
The war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East have become protracted, and how to rebuild the international order is an issue that should be addressed most urgently.
After the dissolution of the lower house, Ishiba is scheduled to attend a series of summit meetings related to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Laos, which will be his first international meeting as prime minister.
There is no doubt that what the new prime minister of Japan, a member of the Group of Seven advanced nations and a major economic power, will say will attract attention.
The prime minister should speak of the roles Japan should play in restoring order based on a clear foreign policy.
Economic indicators are improving, with real wages increasing for two consecutive months, but in actuality, the public scarcely feels that their lives are becoming affluent.
How to achieve growth is an important issue. It is also indispensable to pave the way for fiscal reconstruction. Economic and fiscal polies will be a point of contention in the lower house election.