November 8, 2024
TOKYO – Former Republican U.S. President Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, defeating Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump, who sees all forces that oppose him as enemies and apparently embodies the divisiveness in U.S. society, will take over the reins of the government once again. Will he be able to restore the prestige of the United States and democracy and rebuild the international order?
Extremely unusual race
This presidential election was a choice between Trump’s comeback to power and being “anti-Trump.”
Trump lost the 2020 election to Democratic President Joe Biden, but Trump did not accept the results, leading to his supporters storming and occupying the U.S. Capitol. He was indicted over four criminal incidents, including this one.
It is unusual that a man who has served as president ran for the presidency for the third time while facing criminal prosecution.
In addition, Trump was shot in July and also was the target of another assassination attempt. However, he used the incidents to appear as a “strong leader,” who would not succumb to violence, and support for him increased.
Meanwhile, for the Democratic Party, Biden, who was seeking reelection, withdrew from the presidential race in July and Harris became the party’s candidate. Although Harris united the party under the slogan of defeating Trump, she was unable to dispel concerns about her qualifications, partly because she was chosen without going through the party primaries.
The presidential debate, which normally would be held more than once, took place only one time between Trump and Harris, and it was marked by both sides shouting abusive language. It is regrettable that the election campaign has highlighted the serious divisiveness in society that is similar to a civil war.
What propelled Trump back to the presidency was the result of nothing more than the fact that voters who are frustrated with the Biden administration sought change.
The past four years have seen historically high prices, dubbed “Bidenflation.” The number of illegal immigrants surged and social unrest increased. Harris, who is at the center of the current administration, also faced harsh criticism from voters.
Mounting frustration over inflation
Traditionally, the Democratic Party has labor unions as its support base and has advocated itself as a “party of the people.” In recent years, however, the radical left, which seeks to realize more radical policies on issues such as race, ethnicity and gender, has gained a greater voice, and it has been said that the party has become elitists.
Trump, on the other hand, has been a self-proclaimed “outsider” in the political arena while having served as president, and he has expanded his support by stirring up people’s anger and discontent. This appeal might have attracted not only white workers, but also independent voters who feel a sense of social stagnation.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the conflict in the Palestinian territory of Gaza are taking place concurrently and they continue to take people’s lives. China is openly challenging the free and democratic international order that has been led by the United States and is trying to make rules that favor its own country.
In his victory speech on Nov. 6, Trump repeated the slogan he has used since his first term: “Make America great again.” His approach of demanding that even allies and friendly nations of the United States bear their fair share of the burden and trying to make “deals” by using tariffs and other policies as weapons is expected to remain unchanged.
During his first term, Trump tried to resolve various situations through summit diplomacy by deepening friendly relations with authoritarian leaders, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, but he could not produce results through any of these attempts. It is hoped that Trump will respond cautiously.
Regarding Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Trump has publicly stated that he would end it before taking office. However, if he rushes into a ceasefire and makes concessions to Putin, who has violated international law, the international order based on the rule of law and the respect for sovereignty will be fundamentally shaken.
Trump is known for his extreme pro-Israel stance, including designating Jerusalem as the capital of Israel during his presidency. Like the Biden administration, Trump is highly likely to continue providing arms assistance to Israel.
Trump can only be described as being great if he takes the lead in global peace and stability, not just the interests of the United States. It is hoped that Trump will fulfill his promise to restore greatness in that sense.
Japan’s diplomacy to be tested
The security environment around Japan has been deteriorating. For example, China and Russia have repeatedly engaged in military provocations, and North Korea dispatched its troops to Russia. Under such circumstances, the Japan-U.S. alliance is becoming even more important.
Although the Biden administration has taken the position of emphasizing the importance of alliances and international cooperation, it is expected that the United States will now make demands of Japan, such as a large increase in Japan’s share of the cost of stationing U.S. forces in Japan.
Japan cannot rely on personal relationships, such as the one that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had built with Trump. Japan must work to maintain and strengthen its alliance with the United States, while asserting what it needs to assert. Japan’s diplomatic ability will be tested.