August 14, 2024
NEW DELHI – A chapter in Bangladesh’s history has ended. The family which led the fight for freedom from the shackles of Pakistan and headed it for most part of its democratic phase will no longer have any role in its future. Sheikh Hasina’s departure from Dhaka, amidst the rising violence, marks the end of the family’s presence in the country. Images of a protestor urinating on Mujibur Rahman’s statue, and of others displaying the former PM’s undergarments, project the hatred the nation bore towards the family.
Sheikh Hasina flew into India seeking refuge, after the army refused to curb protests by violent means. She had barely 45 minutes to tender her resignation and leave. This is not the first time she has sought refuge in India. In 1975, when her father Mujibur Rahman was assassinated, Sheikh Hasina and her family lived in India. She stayed in New Delhi for six years, a favour she never forgot. She was then the daughter of the PM and happened to be in Germany when her father was assassinated in Dhaka and hence her life was spared. This time she is the PM who was dislodged, a major difference in the two scenarios. Her confidence that India would not disappoint her was valid. She was received by the National Security Advisor and subsequently the External Affairs Minister met her. She is currently lodged in a safe house in New Delhi while she decides where she wishes to go. She no longer possesses a diplomatic passport and therefore would need a visa from the nation she wishes to take refuge in.
India would definitely play a role in her future movement. On her arrival in India, Dr Jaishankar mentioned, “At very short notice, she requested approval to come to India.” He added that the government will give her time to decide her future. The Indian government claimed she was in shock and would need time to recover. During her stay in India she would continue being treated as a state guest, accorded relevant protocol as also protection. Her immediate family includes a son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, based in the US, and a daughter, Saima Wazed, who is the South East Asian regional director for the World Health Organization, currently based in Delhi. There were reports that the US has revoked Hasina’s visa implying she cannot travel there. For her, the UK would be an ideal first option. Her sister, Sheikh Rehana, who fled with her from Dhaka, is a British citizen, thus moving there does make sense. Sheikh Rehana’s daughter, Tulip Siddiq, is the sitting Labour Member of Parliament as also Economic Secretary to the Treasury and City Minister. Media reports mention UK officials stating that under their immigration law there is no provision for those outside the UK to claim asylum or temporary refuge. They also mentioned, “those who need international protection should claim asylum in the first safe country they reach (in this case, India) – that is the fastest route to safety.” The British Foreign Secretary added fuel to the Bangladesh crisis by demanding a “UN led investigation into the events of the past few weeks,” implying it supports the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina. Multiple options are under consideration for her future stay.
These include a few states in West Asia as also in Europe. She, as also the government of India, would be working together to find a suitable destination for her in the coming days. India will not be her final destination. For India, according her asylum would also not be ideal, despite close ties between her and the Indian government. Her security concerns would severely limit her movements. Further, once the new government is sworn in, post elections, there would be demands for her extradition to face charges on her decisions in her final days in power leading to large number of casualties, as also corruption. Some accusations could also be fabricated.
She would become a pawn in the on-going political games within the country. Alternatively, as happened in Pakistan, their army prevented the government from prosecuting General Musharraf, enabling him to live his life in Dubai. This could be repeated in Bangladesh. This would depend on how the army hierarchy is aligned in the future. Mohamad Yunus, heading the interim government in Bangladesh, stated that it would not be right for her to continue staying in India. The Bangladesh Supreme Court Bar Association President has already made demands for Sheikh Hasina and her sister to be arrested and returned to the country to face charges. In case she remains in India, New Delhi would deny permission for her extradition, which could mar IndoBangla relations. India and Bangladesh have inked an extradition treaty in July 2016 aimed at “expeditious extradition of fugitive criminals between the two countries.” Refusing to adhere to the treaty would send a message that India is taking sides. Rejecting any demand for her return could also fan anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh, which India would not desire.
The Jamaat-e-Islami, which is strongly anti Hasina could lead these protests, impacting normalisation. Further, in some timeframe, Bangladesh could request for an Interpol notice against her. New Delhi has hosted the Dalai Lama in the country for decades, despite the 1962 war and regular Chinese demands for handing him over. Since 1992, it has hosted the family of late Afghan President Mohammad Najibullah. The family has been provided a safe house and a monthly stipend. Recently, India began changing its policies due to geopolitical considerations. New Delhi refused to accept former Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, when he fled the country in July 2022. Rajapaksa flew to Maldives and thence to Singapore from where he returned to Sri Lanka in September the same year.
India also denied safe havens for members of the Ashraf Ghani government in Afghanistan, when the Taliban took over the country post the US withdrawal in August 2021. These are still early days. It will take time for Bangladesh to stabilize and for the interim government to consider demanding her extradition. While New Delhi cannot officially claim it is seeking options for asylum for Sheikh Hasina, it would be utilizing its diplomacy to find a suitable location for her. The faster it does so, the better.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)