July 12, 2024
NEW DELHI – The population of India is expected to increase through 2054 and potentially peak in the second half of the century or later, according to a report released by the United Nations on World Population Day, celebrated annually on July 11.
It is expected that the world’s population will peak in the mid-2080s, growing over the next 60 years from 8.2 billion people in 2024 to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then will return to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century, stated the report titled ‘World Population Prospects 2024’.
The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be six per cent lower — or 700 million fewer — than anticipated a decade ago.
As of 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan, and the Russian Federation, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14 per cent over the next 30 years.
For another 48 countries and areas, including Brazil, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey, and Vietnam, the population is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054.
“In the remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States of America, the population is expected to increase through 2054 and potentially peak in the second half of the century or later,” the report pointed out.
In nine countries of this group, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia, very rapid growth is projected, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years, said Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
“In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions. The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption. However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person,” he said.
The earlier population peak is due to several factors, including lower levels of fertility in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China.
Globally, women are having one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990. In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 — the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration.
By the late 2070s, the number of people aged 65 years or older is projected to surpass the number of children (under age 18), while the number of people aged 80 and higher is projected to be larger than the number of infants (under age one) already by the mid-2030s.
Over the past three decades, mortality rates have decreased and life expectancy has increased significantly.
After a brief decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy at birth is rising again, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, up from 70.9 years during the pandemic, the report said.