April 23, 2025
JAKARTA– As China and the US vie for influence in South-east Asia amid tariff tensions, Indonesia – the region’s largest economy and a key maritime power – has emerged as a central battleground in a high-stakes strategic contest.
In recent weeks, Beijing and Washington have explored deeper economic and military ties with Jakarta, seeking to bolster their presence in a strategically located nation that straddles key global maritime trade routes and serves as a buffer between rival blocs.
On April 16, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono in Washington, where they “discussed ways to deepen defence and security cooperation, including efforts to uphold freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea in accordance with international law”, the US State Department said in a statement.
Mr Sugiono was in the US with other Indonesian ministers as part of broader talks to reduce the trade imbalance and address the 32 per cent tariff on Indonesian exports imposed by US President Donald Trump’s administration.
Back in November 2024, the US and Indonesian armies held staff talks in Hawaii. The talks belied more than a bilateral military engagement; they reflected the unity and common purpose of the US and Indonesian armies, the US Army said at the time.
Bloomberg reported that Indonesia is considering a multibillion-dollar purchase of US-made defence equipment, including fighter jets and munitions, as part of efforts to modernise its ageing military.
Five days after Mr Sugiono’s US visit, Indonesia and China agreed on April 21 to strengthen cooperation in areas including disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control, following their first-ever 2+2 dialogue between foreign and defence ministers.
According to Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, the two sides also committed to enhancing coordination between the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency and the China Coast Guard.
With the ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea, China lags behind the US in defence ties with Indonesia, but the latest announcement, though symbolic, shows China is trying to strengthen its position.
The dialogue came shortly after Chinese President Xi Jinping completed a South-east Asian tour that excluded Indonesia but covered Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia.
Prior to the trip, Mr Xi had a phone call with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, a gesture seen as reaffirming Beijing’s view of Jakarta as a key regional partner.
Throughout these engagements, Indonesia has demonstrated an ability to hedge between both major powers without aligning too closely with either – a hallmark of its “bebas aktif”, or independent and active, foreign policy, analysts said.
During the 2+2 talks, Mr Sugiono voiced concern over US tariff hikes but emphasised that China and the US remain crucial partners in Indonesia’s development. Jakarta, he said, intends to maintain “balanced and constructive” cooperation with both powers.
Russia has also surfaced in the strategic equation. An April 14 report by defence publication Janes, citing anonymous government sources, said Moscow was considering establishing a military base in Biak, in Indonesia’s easternmost province of Papua.
The report raised concerns in neighbouring Australia, where analysts warned that a Russian military presence could impact Canberra’s long-term security environment.
Indonesian officials said the report was untrue.
Russian Ambassador to Indonesia Sergei Tolchenov responded with a letter to The Jakarta Post, published on April 19, stating that military cooperation between Russia and Indonesia is “an integral part of intergovernmental relations”, grounded in legal agreements and national laws.
He said the partnership is aimed at strengthening both countries’ defensive capabilities and “is not directed against any third country, nor does it pose a threat to security in the Asia-Pacific region”.
Dr Fitriani Bintang Timur, a defence analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said President Prabowo’s “friends to all” approach has enabled Indonesia to hedge and pursue multi-alignment, engaging not only with China and Russia, but also with Western powers.
“Indonesia stands to benefit from its ability to hedge among major powers wooing the country in economic, political and strategic terms,” she told The Straits Times.
Economically, Dr Fitriani noted that Indonesia could negotiate industrial cooperation benefits in exchange for hosting the manufacturing or assembly of F-15EX jets. However, she said, it remains unclear if Indonesia has the budget for such large-scale defence procurement in return for tariff relief or trade concessions.
On the political front, she said “playing major powers against one another allows Indonesia to maintain strategic autonomy and have bargaining leverage”.
“However, it must be able to keep multiple great powers interested. It can be done, as long as the country does not lock in to one side and leaves the other side to retaliate,” she added.
Dr Broto Wardoyo, senior assistant professor of international relations at the University of Indonesia, noted that great power rivalry is unlikely to ease any time soon, ensuring that Indonesia’s balancing act will remain in the global spotlight.
Mr Prabowo’s pragmatism, he said, has led to a strategy of diversifying partnerships and reducing reliance on any single power. This is evident in Indonesia’s outreach beyond the 10-nation Asean grouping, including its decision to become the first South-east Asian country to join Brics in January 2025.
Brics – which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – is a coalition of major emerging economies that collaborate on trade, development and global governance issues.
Dr Broto also pointed to Indonesia’s engagement with Qatar on the Palestine issue, highlighting Jakarta’s efforts to present a balanced voice in addressing the Gaza conflict.
“These actions should be understood as signals that Indonesia seeks to maintain its independence and neutrality,” he told ST.
Mr Pieter Pandie, an international relations researcher at the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, added that Indonesia has diversified its arms procurement by working with the US, Turkey, South Korea and others to avoid overreliance on any single supplier.
Military training partnerships are similarly diverse, although the US remains Indonesia’s most frequent partner through various joint exercises. These drills offer operational experience and training for the Indonesian military, Mr Pieter told ST.
“Indonesia has historically been non-aligned in its foreign policy, and given its size and heft, any sort of strategic tilt towards either side now would certainly have some repercussions for dynamics both in the region and possibly globally,” he said.
Dr Fitriani warned that intensifying rivalries between major powers could lead to a rise in foreign military and paramilitary presence in South-east Asia.
She cited Myanmar’s recent law allowing a Chinese security firm to operate domestically, the presence of US military bases in the Philippines, and China’s use of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base.
Middle powers, too, have ramped up their activities through freedom of navigation operations, expanding the region’s military footprint, said Dr Fitriani.
“However, as countries in South-east Asia are united under Asean, I believe they have a strong strategic voice to decline additional formal and permanent military bases in the region in order to not escalate the existing geopolitical tension,” she said.
Mr Pieter said South-east Asia, given its geopolitical significance, already hosts the military presence of external powers to varying degrees – whether through defence dialogues, joint exercises or other forms of cooperation.
Like Dr Fitriani, he noted that as great power rivalries intensify, the presence of external forces in the region is likely to grow, with major players aiming to expand their influence.
As for how Indonesia can leverage these rivalries without inviting negative consequences, he said, there is no easy answer.
“That is the million-dollar question, and the answer is complex,” he said.
“The current nature of the rivalry is multi-domain, with even allies of the great powers facing some degree of repercussions. Indonesia will need to play its cards carefully, while staying true to the values and norms that it has traditionally championed through its foreign policy.”
- Arlina Arshad is The Straits Times’ Indonesia bureau chief. She is a Singaporean who has been living and working in Indonesia as a journalist for more than 15 years.