January 6, 2025
JAKARTA – The loyalty and allegiance of the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM) to President Prabowo Subianto are being put to the test following a recent court decision revoking the presidential nomination threshold, which offers every political party a chance to field a challenger in the 2029 election.
In a surprising ruling last week, the Constitutional Court removed the steep threshold for nominating presidential candidates that was based on shares of House of Representatives seats or the popular vote a political party or a coalition of parties won in the previous legislative election.
This creates a level playing field for every political party that analysts say will test how far the ruling KIM coalition will remain united behind Prabowo, who is likely to seek reelection in 2029.
“Political parties will eventually think about their long-term survival in politics and may have to start an internal discussion about nominating their own members in the next presidential election,” analyst Aditya Perdana said on Saturday.
This, he said, could “influence future dynamics in the cabinet”, particularly if “some party leaders and presidential aspirants serving in the cabinet shift their focus toward running in the race and boosting their standing” instead of ensuring the success of Prabowo’s agenda.
The level playing field, Aditya said, could also mean that Prabowo might have to face potentially strong challengers in the next election, such as his own Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and his two rivals from the February election of last year: Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.
Senior politician Maman Abdurahman of the Golkar Party, the largest party in the KIM coalition, was quick to stress the need to “maintain political stability for the next five years”.
Maman, who is also a minister in the Prabowo cabinet, said on Friday that “there must not be any candidates who run only for personal interests and popularity, while the country’s big agenda for the welfare of the people is neglected”.
Some mid-sized and smaller parties in the KIM coalition have applauded the court for scrapping the threshold. They include the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which failed to nominate their own members in February’s poll but maintained their presence in the House, as well as the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) and the Star and Crescent Party (PBB), which currently have no seats in the House.
But PAN deputy chair Yandri Susanto, who serves in the Prabowo cabinet as the Villages and Regional Development Minister, said the party would not nominate its own member for the 2029 presidential election. Yandri was quoted by Antara as saying on Friday that Prabowo “is still the best” figure to lead the nation and that PAN “remains loyal to Prabowo”.
Analyst Hendri Satrio predicted that signs of disunity within the KIM coalition over the next presidential tickets would emerge closer to the 2029 election, arguing that parties were likely to seek to continue enjoying the benefits of their membership of the government.
But another analyst, Adi Prayitno of think tank Parameter Indonesia, doubted that pro-Prabowo parties would mount challenges to his reelection bid in the next presidential election.
“Running for president requires substantial electoral capital, and Prabowo, as an incumbent, currently stands out in this regard, having the most consolidated popularity and electability,” Adi said.
“Given that political parties are marred by shortages of popular figures, political parties might play it safe and opt for short-term gains by supporting Prabowo’s reelection bid instead of endorsing their own candidates in the race.”
While annulling the threshold to ensure all parties can nominate their candidates, the court instructed lawmakers to put provisions in a new elections law that would prevent an excessive number of candidates running, as long as the new method is not based on shares of House seats or the popular vote.