August 12, 2025
JAKARTA – Retail sales in July are projected to grow after nine months of sluggish performance, driven by increased commerce in certain goods.
According to preliminary data published by Bank Indonesia (BI) on Monday, the retail sales index (RSI) for July is estimated to have inched up to 222.5, marking a solid 4.8 percent year-on-year (yoy) increase from 212.4 in March of last year.
BI spokesperson Ramdan Denny Prakoso said in a press statement released alongside the data that the annual growth “chiefly originated from” sales of spare parts and accessories as well as food, beverages and tobacco.
Excluding the March data, when consumption typically spikes during Idul Fitri, boosting retail sales, annual RSI growth has remained weak since October of last year. The highest yearly growth during that period was only 2 percent in February, with most other months posting gains below 2 percent.
The index performed particularly poorly in November and January, while the weakest growth in the nine-month period was recorded in April, when it contracted by 0.3 percent. However, that reading was still better than the 2.7 percent contraction seen in the same month last year.
On a monthly basis, July’s projected RSI fell 4 percent from June, which BI attributed to the end of holidays and collective leave during religious festivities, when retailers often launch mid-season sales.
Read also: GDP up 5.12% on govt projects, consumer stimulus
Sales of information and communication devices continued to weigh on overall growth, posting more double-digit contraction since March, including 17.1 percent in July.
In contrast, sales of vehicle fuel recorded a robust 13 percent yoy growth in July, followed by spare parts and accessories (7.5 percent) and food, beverages and tobacco (6 percent), as well as culture and recreation (1.4 percent).
Survey respondents expected inflationary pressure to ease in September and decline further in October, before rising again in the following two months due to Christmas and New Year festivities.
They were less optimistic about sales over the next three months but anticipated a steady rebound leading to a peak in December.
This sentiment aligns with the trend seen in the consumer confidence index (CCI), a separate survey by the monetary authority released on Friday.
The CCI rose slightly to 118.1 points in July from 117.8 in June, largely reflecting improved expectations for the future. The consumer expectations subindex, which measures perceptions of the economy over the next six months, edged up to 129.6 points from 128.9.
Of its three components, income expectations saw the largest improvement, job availability expectations rose slightly, while business activity expectations declined significantly.
Read also: Consumer confidence inches up as Indonesians expect better times ahead
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Aug. 5 that gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.12 percent yoy in the second quarter of 2025, beating the 4.8 percent market consensus.
Household spending, which accounts for the lion’s share of GDP, was up 4.97 percent yoy in the second quarter, marginally higher than 4.95 percent logged in the first quarter of this year. The boost was partly due to a consumer stimulus package rolled out in the second quarter to increase spending during the school holiday, including discounted transportation fees.