December 2, 2024
JAKARTA – The projected outcome of Wednesday’s regional polls has cemented the dominance of President Prabowo Subianto’s big-tent electoral alliance, the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM), which was also behind the administration of former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, after candidates backed by rival camps suffered upset defeats in a number of key battlegrounds.
The country’s largest simultaneous regional head elections have been seen as the extension of the power play between KIM, led by Prabowo’s Gerindra Party, and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the political vehicle of Jokowi before he tacitly endorsed Prabowo in February’s presidential election over PDI-P candidate Ganjar Pranowo.
Quick count results by various pollsters have suggested that candidates backed by the PDI-P, and some KIM members that had decided to form their own coalitions for the Nov. 27 local elections, were defeated by the ruling coalition.
A major loss for PDI-P
The PDI-P, now the only de facto opposition party, suffered a huge defeat in its battle for dominance against Jokowi in Central Java, the party’s longtime traditional stronghold.
Quick counts show the KIM-backed candidate Ahmad Luthfi is on his way to victory by securing nearly 60 percent of the vote, pulling comfortably ahead of his rival Andika Perkasa who ran on the ticket of the PDI-P.
Read also: Regional polls help Prabowo tighten grip on power
Ahmad’s likely victory came after weeks of polls showing a tight race between the two candidates and both Prabowo and Jokowi eventually endorsed the former Central Java Police chief.
The defeat of Andika, a former Indonesian Military (TNI) commander, in PDI-P’s stronghold marked a further setback for the nationalist PDI-P party. Party matriarch Megawati blamed Andika’s loss on “the massive use of acting regional heads and police personnel rotations for electoral gains.”
“Our democracy is at risk of dying because [people in] power are doing everything [to win, including by using] the nation’s resources and apparatus,” Megawati said in a recorded speech published on the PDI-P’s YouTube channel.
“This can’t go unattended anymore, considering the Constitutional Court has already made an important decision that non-neutral members of the state apparatus can be convicted,” she stressed.
Another victory was also claimed by a Prabowo-and-Jokowi-backed candidate pair in North Sumatra, the largest province outside Java with a population of about 15 million people, which also served as one of the key pillars for Jokowi’s political dynasty.
With the backing of KIM’s political machinery, Jokowi’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution, the former mayor of the provincial capital, Medan, looks set to beat the PDI-P’s candidate, former governor Edy Rahmayadi, with about 62 percent of the vote, quick counts show.
Read also: Preliminary results show Luthfi defeating Andika in Central Java
Golkar, PKS eroding base
Aside from the opposition losing its base, Wednesday’s elections also saw pro-Prabowo parties that had decided to split from KIM to back their own candidates in several regions being defeated by the Prabowo-Jokowi machine.
Golkar has lost a key election in one of its strongholds Banten, where its popular member Airin Rachmi Diany, who ran on a ticket backed by her party and the PDI-P, lost to the Gerindra-led coalition’s candidate Andra Soni with almost 58 percent of the total vote, according to quick counts.
This is despite polls showing Airin, a member of the political dynasty of former Banten governor Ratu Atut Chosiyah that had dominated the province since 2005, enjoying months of a significant lead.
Similarly, the Islamic-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) lost its elections in Jakarta and West Java for governor, and Depok and Bandung for mayor, all of which had been the party’s traditional strongholds.
PKS candidate Ahmad Syaikhu and Ilham Habibie, the son of former president BJ Habibie, lost in the race for West Java governor to Dedi Mulyadi and running mate Erwan Setiawan who ran with the powerful backing of KIM.
Read also: Pramono claims victory in Jakarta, but rivals still hope for runoff
Prabowo, Jokowi a gamechanger?
Projected results in key provinces reflect the influence of Prabowo and Jokowi, especially through a combination of Jokowi’s relatively high popularity and the strategy of rallying support by the large coalition of KIM, analysts have said.
“Endorsement from Jokowi, as well as the machinery of Prabowo’s big coalition was proven to have a big impact on influencing the election’s result in major provinces,” researcher Yoes Kenawas from Lembaga Survey Indonesia (LSI) said.
Such support does not translate into merely coattail effects for candidates, but also the “mobilization of logistics and donors,” which played a huge role in rallying support for candidates, Yoes noted.
In Central Java, Jokowi, who openly campaigned for his preferred candidate Ahmad, played a significant role in preventing PDI-P-backed candidate Andika from winning the race.
“Jokowi’s network [in Central Java] appeared to be all out and working at all costs [to secure victory for his preferred candidate]. Central Java became a gamble and a matter of pride for Jokowi and his family,” said political analyst Ahmad Khoirul Umam of Indostrategic.
Moreover, “the dominance of [KIM’s] political machinery, alongside Jokowi and Prabowo’s endorsements, sent a strong message to power nodes in Central Java, including logistical donors, to go all out to get Luthfi in,” said Umam, who also is a lecturer at Paramadina University.
In terms of why some of the pro-Prabowo parties lost ground in their strongholds, Yoes said there was no single explanation, given that political dynamics in regions are more nuanced.
He pointed to an instance of Airin’s husband, Tb. Chaeri Wardhana, being investigated by the Banten Prosecutor’s Office over his role in alleged corruption in the procurement of land for the province’s sports center as among the multiple factors behind her defeat.
In the case of the PKS, losing elections in its key stronghold may indicate its grassroots disappointment over the party’s decision not to endorse popular former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan for the race, blunders committed by candidates, and unattractive candidate choices, Yoes said.