March 9, 2026
KUALA LUMPUR – IT’S the economy, stupid.
That phrase has echoed through decades of political discourse since 1992, when campaign strategist James Carville scrawled it on a whiteboard at former US president Bill Clinton’s political headquarters. It was part of a trio of core messages meant to keep a burgeoning campaign disciplined: “Change vs more of the same”, “The economy, stupid”, and “Don’t forget healthcare”.
It was never meant for public consumption, but it became the defining mantra of the 1992 US presidential election. By keeping the focus squarely on the recession and the stagnation of the American middle class, Carville dismantled the perception that George HW Bush – a sitting president with a massive foreign policy track record – was the obvious choice. The lesson was simple: When voters are anxious about their livelihoods, broader geopolitical narratives fade.
I’ve been reflecting on that slogan recently after conversations with two political analysts regarding the upcoming 16th General Election (GE16), which speculation suggests could be held this year. It is a topic of intense interest, especially considering that the Dewan Rakyat will automatically dissolve on Dec 19, 2027.
One analyst remains firmly in the “economy first” camp. He believes the Madani government will perform strongly, pointing to Malaysia’s macroeconomic performance as the “best”. He argued that under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the ringgit is performing well, at about RM3.99 to the dollar.
He argued that Malaysia is successfully transitioning towards high-income nation status. He credited the Madani government with restoring the nation’s dignity and revenue. His points included:
> Corruption Perception Index: Malaysia’s ranking improved to 54th place, up from 57th in 2024, while the score improved by two points to 52, reflecting effective structural reforms to curb high-profile corruption.
> Revenue recovery: RM15.5bil was recovered through enforcement by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission, Inland Revenue Board, police, and Customs Department.
> Economic strategy: The government’s aim is for Malaysia to become a high income nation by 2027-2028, with institutional reform and clean governance as the primary pillars.
> GNI targets: The Gross National Income per capita is currently at US$11,800-US$12,000 (RM46,500-RM47,300), drawing closer to the World Bank’s high-income threshold of US$13,935 (RM54,900).
> Sectoral shift: The transition to high-value sectors such as semiconductor and digital economies is being supported by a transparent, corruption-free ecosystem.
However, the second analyst offered a sobering rebuttal. He argued that politics is rarely rational; it is emotional. He contended that regardless of macroeconomic indicators, most B40 and M40 (lower and middle income) households do not feel their daily lives have changed under the Madani administration. The dominant emotion among those who voted for Pakatan Harapan in GE15 in 2022, he suggested, is anger.
The July 12 DAP special convention looms as a critical moment of truth for the coalition. For the party’s grassroots, this is not merely a procedural meeting; it is a referendum on their participation in the government.
The DAP is split. Some argue that remaining in the unity government is the only way to influence policy from within. A growing faction, however, believes the party’s reformist credentials are being eroded by silent complicity. If the convention votes to distance the party from the current administration, the government’s foundational stability would effectively shatter.
Voter frustration goes beyond specific personalities, such as MACC chief Tan Sri Azam Baki, whose shareholding controversy remains a flashpoint. There is a palpable sense of “reformasi fatigue” with “reformati” (a clever play on words that implies reform is dead, or mati) coming up more and more. Supporters who spent years campaigning for deep institutional overhauls now feel that the administration is prioritising political survival over structural change.
Voters, especially those who supported the DAP, are increasingly dissatisfied with the perceived slow pace of legislative reforms and what they view as a dangerous inconsistency in the government’s approach to dealing with past political rivals – they say it’s a far cry from the “clean government” promises that propelled Pakatan to power.
The analyst also highlighted the backlash surrounding the investigation into the RM1.1bil ARM Holdings agreement and former PKR deputy president and ex-Economy minister Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli. The Pandan MP has claimed the MACC probe is politically-motivated retaliation, initiated only after his vocal criticism of the MACC chief.
Rafizi has remained defiant, arguing that the ARM deal underwent multiple Cabinet-level approvals.
The second analyst also warned that the coalition risks implosion. He noted the departure of Upko in November 2025, leaving Pakatan with its original three parties: PKR, DAP, and Amanah.
Rafizi and at least nine MPs in urban Klang Valley seats like Ampang, Kelana Jaya, Pandan, Petaling Jaya, Setiawangsa, and Wangsamaju are at odds with PKR president Anwar. The analyst warned that PKR, which won 31 seats in GE15, could see its support plummet to single digits in GE16.
“Will PKR have the clout to lead a coalition government with PKR parliamentary seats reduced, and if DAP goes solo?” he asked.
In a reverse of Clinton’s successful slogan, for GE16, the slogan might be: It’s not the economy, stupid.