August 16, 2024
TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is bowing out with a diplomatic record praised by like-minded democratic nations, although the picture is murkier among the country’s perceived foes.
Mr Kishida said on Aug 14 that he will step down after his successor is chosen in ruling party polls in September.
Under his three-year watch, he managed to achieve what the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe had championed but ultimately failed to set in motion.
He presided over a dramatic rise in defence spending and, in December 2022, a radical overhaul of security policy to allow counterstrike capabilities and lethal weapon exports.
In doing so, China, North Korea and Russia were described as threats to Japan, with the environment “as severe and complex as it has ever been since the end of World War II”.
Dr Sota Kato, a research director at The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research think-tank, told The Straits Times: “It was only because Kishida is considered a dove that he was able to implement this smoothly.”
In comparison, Mr Abe’s overt nationalism and hawkish push to revise the Constitution had made his plans look sinister.
Timing also likely helped, with the public spooked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and warnings that a similar conflict could roil Asia.
Dr Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at US think-tank Hudson Institute, told ST that as prime minister, Mr Kishida fleshed out and brought Mr Abe’s security vision to fruition.
Dr Kato also noted that Mr Kishida played to his strengths as a consummate statesman, having been Japan’s longest-serving foreign minister, at four years and seven months between 2012 and 2017.
“The Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima in 2023 is considered a success by the international community,” he noted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise appearance then, in what was his first trip to Asia since the invasion.
Dr Kato further praised Mr Kishida for blossoming Japan-South Korea relations, which had until recently been at a complete standstill, as well as for fostering closer trilateral security cooperation among Japan, the US and South Korea.
The success was evident in the bouquets that have flowed in.
US President Joe Biden on Aug 14 described Mr Kishida’s leadership as “courageous” and “nothing short of historic”.
“Guided by unflinching courage and moral clarity, Prime Minister Kishida has transformed Japan’s role in the world,” Mr Biden said, adding that the US and Japan are scaling new heights, “from advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific region, to standing side by side as steadfast, global partners”.
Yet the flip side of this coin, analysts said, are perceptions that Japan has become too aligned with the US, and could thus be easily seen as acting on behalf of the US in its diplomatic outreach – particularly with countries in the so-called Global South.
An Aug 15 exclusive on the Japan News Network stoked furore, with the report citing a US government official as saying that Mr Kishida’s office had on Aug 9 already informed the US that the Prime Minister might soon make an announcement that he would step down.
Commentators on the news aggregator site NewsPicks said it was unthinkable that other countries are first told that the Prime Minister might resign before an announcement is made to voters, and that it could make Japan appear to be a “vassal state” of the US.
Dr Nagao wondered if Mr Kishida had “shifted a bit too much” towards the US, causing the impression that Japan is deferential to whatever strategy the US decides.
He added that Mr Kishida, very much unlike Mr Abe, does not appear skilled at holding his own against strongman leaders.
Mr Abe managed to build close relationships with former US president Donald Trump – who is now running for a second presidential term – as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he had 27 summit meetings.
Even as he was seen as a conservative at best and historical revisionist at worst, Mr Abe managed to oversee a detente in Sino-Japan ties that led to a state visit to Beijing in 2019 at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
A planned reciprocal visit by Mr Xi, which was first scuppered by the Covid-19 pandemic, still remains highly unlikely in the near future as ties remain strained.
A key bilateral milestone in 2023 – the 45th anniversary of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship – came and went without any fanfare.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a regular news briefing in Beijing on Aug 14 that China would not comment on Japan’s internal political affairs, but was willing to stabilise bilateral ties with a country it regards as an important neighbour.
“We are willing to work with Japan to comprehensively promote strategic and mutually beneficial, as well as constructive and stable, relations between our countries,” he said.
Dr Nagao wondered if the deterioration in ties between the US and China was a strategic concern for Japan, adding: “If Japan tried to improve ties with China in such an atmosphere, it would raise questions in Washington.”
Mr Kishida also appeared to have botched the possibility of a first Japan-North Korea summit since 2004 after Pyongyang briefly appeared open to talks earlier in 2024.
But apparent missteps, including Tokyo’s public airing of their differences, led North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong to accuse Mr Kishida of using Pyongyang as little more than “a bid for popularity”.
The race to succeed Mr Kishida is likely to be heated, with many potential candidates.
But the ultimate question that will decide the future of Japanese diplomacy, Dr Nagao said, is: “Can the new PM be good friends with and hold his or her own against other leaders, including the US president?”