January 30, 2026
TOKYO – The high approval ratings for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet appear to be giving the Liberal Democratic Party momentum as it chases a single-party majority in the House of Representatives election, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey.
The newly formed main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance has yet to see a bounce in its support, and will be scrambling to endear itself to more voters before next month’s election.
The LDP has endorsed candidates in 285 single-seat constituencies nationwide. Of these candidates, 129 hold leads in their constituencies. The LDP could win about 200 seats in total, including in tightly contested races. The LDP is poised to make gains even in areas that opposition parties have dominated in recent times, such as Aichi Prefecture, which has 16 seats, and Hokkaido, where the party won only three of the 12 seats in the last election.
The ruling coalition lost its majority in the previous lower house election, as the LDP was battered by factional politics and a string of money scandals. However, Takaichi’s emergence as party leader has given the party energy.
“Campaign flyers bearing the prime minister’s photo are quickly snapped up,” said an LDP candidate standing in a constituency in the Tokyo metropolitan area. “The reaction from the public is completely different from the previous election.”
A Yomiuri Shimbun national survey conducted this month found that support for Takaichi’s Cabinet stood at 69%. A majority of LDP candidates were raking in more than 50% of the Cabinet’s backers, which had led to an overall increase in their support.
The Japan Innovation Party — the LDP’s coalition partner — is polling strongly in its home turf of Osaka, but it is not faring well in other areas. Some senior JIP members are in neck-and-neck races with LDP candidates.
Opposition parties disadvantaged
The CRA, a party formed this month by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, appears to be struggling in a significant number of constituencies across the nation. CRA candidates hold the upper hand in only eight of the 200 constituencies in which the party is going head-to-head against the LDP, while the LDP candidate is out in front in 73 races.
The CRA will be counting on organized support from groups to boost its chances, but at this stage it remains unclear just how many of these votes it will receive in single-seat constituencies. Many of the party’s candidates based their election strategy on pulling in the votes of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo), which has supported the CDPJ, and Soka Gakkai, a lay Buddhist group that is Komeito’s support body. However, one veteran candidate admitted, “I don’t know if I’ll get as many of these votes as I expected.”
The CRA has fielded candidates in the four single-seat constituencies Komeito won in the previous lower house election. All four candidates are either trailing LDP candidates or locked in close races with them.
“We formed this party just recently, so getting people to remember our name is a pressing issue,” CRA coleader Yoshihiko Noda said to The Yomiuri Shimbun. Noda indicated that he is determined to regain ground in these races.
About 170 constituency races will feature candidates from at least two of the following parties — the CRA, the Democratic Party for the People, the Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi. This jockeying among the opposition parties for the same pool of anti-administration votes will likely work to the LDP’s advantage.
The DPFP is tipped to win about the same number of seats that it clinched in the previous election. During a stump speech in Fukuoka, DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki said, “The administration is currently operating in a humble manner, but if [the LDP] wins a majority, the voices of the people will be ignored again.”
The conservative Sanseito party, which made large gains in last year’s House of Councillors election, has no clear path to winning any of the single-seat constituencies in the upcoming election.